Statistics for Business and Economics (13th Edition)
13th Edition
ISBN: 9780134506593
Author: James T. McClave, P. George Benson, Terry Sincich
Publisher: PEARSON
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Textbook Question
Chapter 3.6, Problem 3.52LM
For two
- a. Find P (A∩B).
- b. Find P (B|A).
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3. Bayesian Inference – Updating Beliefs
A medical test for a rare disease has the following characteristics:
Sensitivity (true positive rate): 99%
Specificity (true negative rate): 98%
The disease occurs in 0.5% of the population.
A patient receives a positive test result.
Questions:
a) Define the relevant events and use Bayes’ Theorem to compute the probability that the patient actually has the disease.b) Explain why the result might seem counterintuitive, despite the high sensitivity and specificity.c) Discuss how prior probabilities influence posterior beliefs in Bayesian inference.d) Suppose a second, independent test with the same accuracy is conducted and is also positive. Update the probability that the patient has the disease.
4. Linear Regression - Model Assumptions and Interpretation
A real estate analyst is studying how house prices (Y) are related to house size in square feet (X). A simple
linear regression model is proposed:
The analyst fits the model and obtains:
•
Ŷ50,000+150X
YBoB₁X + €
•
R² = 0.76
• Residuals show a fan-shaped pattern when plotted against fitted values.
Questions:
a) Interpret the slope coefficient in context.
b) Explain what the R² value tells us about the model's performance.
c) Based on the residual pattern, what regression assumption is likely violated? What might be the
consequence?
d) Suggest at least two remedies to improve the model, based on the residual analysis.
Chapter 3 Solutions
Statistics for Business and Economics (13th Edition)
Ch. 3.1 - An experiment results in one of the following...Ch. 3.1 - The diagram below describes the sample space of a...Ch. 3.1 - The sample space for an experiment contains five...Ch. 3.1 - Compute each of the following: a. (94) b. (72) c....Ch. 3.1 - Compute the number of ways you can select n...Ch. 3.1 - Two fair dice are tossed, and the face on each die...Ch. 3.1 - Two marbles are drawn at random and without...Ch. 3.1 - Use the applet Simulating the Probability of...Ch. 3.1 - Use the applet Simulating the Probability of a...Ch. 3.1 - Cable TV subscriptions and "cord cutters." Refer...
Ch. 3.1 - Do social robots walk or roll? Refer to the...Ch. 3.1 - Colors of MMs candies. When they were first...Ch. 3.1 - Male nannies. In a survey conducted by the...Ch. 3.1 - Working on summer vacation. Is summer vacation a...Ch. 3.1 - Mobile access to social media. The Marketing...Ch. 3.1 - Performance-based logistics. Refer to the Journal...Ch. 3.1 - Who prepares your tax return? As part of a study...Ch. 3.1 - Consumer recycling behavior. Refer to the Journal...Ch. 3.1 - Museum management. Refer to the Museum Management...Ch. 3.1 - USDA chicken inspection. The U.S. Department of...Ch. 3.1 - Jamming attacks on wireless networks. Refer to the...Ch. 3.1 - Randomization in a study of TV commercials....Ch. 3.1 - Jai-alai bets. The Quinella bet at the paramutual...Ch. 3.1 - Investing in stocks. From a list of 15 preferred...Ch. 3.1 - Highest-rated car brands. Consumer Reports 2015...Ch. 3.1 - Volkswagen emissions scandal. Refer to the...Ch. 3.1 - Drug testing of firefighters. Hillsborough County...Ch. 3.1 - Odds of winning a race. Handicappers for greyhound...Ch. 3.1 - Lead bullets as forensic evidence. Chance (Summer...Ch. 3.1 - Making your vote count. Democratic and Republican...Ch. 3.4 - Suppose P (A) = A, P(B) = 7, and P (A B) = 3....Ch. 3.4 - A fair coin is tossed three times, and the events...Ch. 3.4 - A pair of fair dice is tossed. Define the...Ch. 3.4 - Consider the Venn diagram below, where P(E1) =...Ch. 3.4 - Consider the Venn diagram in the next column,...Ch. 3.4 - Prob. 3.35LMCh. 3.4 - Prob. 3.36LMCh. 3.4 - Use the applets Simulating the Probability of...Ch. 3.4 - Prob. 3.4AECh. 3.4 - Do social robots walk or roll? Refer to the...Ch. 3.4 - Firefighter glove sizing. Human Factors (December...Ch. 3.4 - Study of analysts' forecasts. The Journal of...Ch. 3.4 - Problems at major companies The Organization...Ch. 3.4 - Scanning errors at Walmart. The National Institute...Ch. 3.4 - Social networking Web sites in the United Kingdom....Ch. 3.4 - Paying monthly bills online. Do most people pay...Ch. 3.4 - Fuzzy logic in supply chain management. A branch...Ch. 3.4 - Study of why EMS workers leave the job. An...Ch. 3.4 - Stock market participation and IQ. The Journal of...Ch. 3.4 - Cell phone handoff behavior. A "handoff' is a term...Ch. 3.4 - Guilt in decision making. The effect of guilt...Ch. 3.4 - Likelihood of a tax return audit. At the beginning...Ch. 3.4 - Prob. 3.50ACACh. 3.4 - Encoding variability in software. At the 2012 Gulf...Ch. 3.6 - For two events, A and B, P (A) .4, P (B) .2, and...Ch. 3.6 - For two events, A and B, P (A) = .4, P (B) = .2,...Ch. 3.6 - An experiment results in one of three mutually...Ch. 3.6 - For two independent events, A and B, P (A) = .4...Ch. 3.6 - Two fair coins are tossed, and the following...Ch. 3.6 - Consider the experiment depicted by the Venn...Ch. 3.6 - Two fair dice are tossed, and the following events...Ch. 3.6 - A sample space contains six sample points and...Ch. 3.6 - Use the applet Simulating the Probability of...Ch. 3.6 - On-the-job arrogance and task performance. Human...Ch. 3.6 - World's largest public companies. Forbes (May 6,...Ch. 3.6 - Guilt in decision making. Refer to the Journal of...Ch. 3.6 - Blood diamonds. According to Global Research News...Ch. 3.6 - Do social robots walk or roll? Refer to the...Ch. 3.6 - Shopping with a smartphone. Each year, United...Ch. 3.6 - Identity theft victims. According to The National...Ch. 3.6 - Study of why EMS workers leave the job. Refer to...Ch. 3.6 - Working on summer vacation. Refer to the Harris...Ch. 3.6 - Stock market participation and IQ. Refer to The...Ch. 3.6 - Prob. 3.70ACICh. 3.6 - Ambulance response time. Geographical Analysis...Ch. 3.6 - Working mothers with children. The U S Census...Ch. 3.6 - Firefighters' use of gas detection devices. Two...Ch. 3.6 - Wine quality and soil. The Journal of Wine...Ch. 3.6 - Are you really being served red snapper? Red...Ch. 3.6 - Random shuffling of songs on Spotify. Spotify is a...Ch. 3.6 - Forensic evidence in a criminal court case. In our...Ch. 3.6 - Prob. 3.78ACACh. 3.6 - Prob. 3.79ACACh. 3.6 - Encryption systems with erroneous ciphertexts. In...Ch. 3.7 - Suppose the events B1 and B2 are mutually...Ch. 3.7 - Prob. 3.82LMCh. 3.7 - Prob. 3.83LMCh. 3.7 - Confidence of feedback information for improving...Ch. 3.7 - Fingerprint expertise. A study published in...Ch. 3.7 - Tests for Down syndrome. Currently, there are...Ch. 3.7 - Fish contaminated by a plants toxic discharge....Ch. 3.7 - Errors in estimating job costs. A construction...Ch. 3.7 - Mining for dolomite. Dolomite is a valuable...Ch. 3.7 - Nondestructive evaluation. Nondestructive...Ch. 3.7 - Drug testing in the workplace. In Canada, the...Ch. 3.7 - Intrusion detection systems. The Journal of...Ch. 3.7 - Forensic analysis of JFK assassination bullets....Ch. 3 - Which of the following pairs of events are...Ch. 3 - A sample space consists of four sample points,...Ch. 3 - For two events A and B, suppose P (A) = .7, P (B)...Ch. 3 - A and B are mutually exclusive events, with P (A)...Ch. 3 - Two events, A and B , are independent, with P (A) ...Ch. 3 - Prob. 3.99LMCh. 3 - Prob. 3.100LMCh. 3 - The Venn diagram below illustrates a sample space...Ch. 3 - Use the applet entitled Random Numbers to generate...Ch. 3 - Find the numerical value of a. 6! b. (109) c....Ch. 3 - Management system failures. Refer to the Process...Ch. 3 - Workers unscheduled absence survey. Each year CCH,...Ch. 3 - Ownership of small businesses. According to the...Ch. 3 - Condition of public school facilities. The...Ch. 3 - New car crash tests. Refer to the National Highway...Ch. 3 - Speeding linked to fatal car crashes. According to...Ch. 3 - Choosing portable grill displays. Consider a study...Ch. 3 - Inactive oil and gas structures. U.S. federal...Ch. 3 - Is a product green? A green product (e.g., a...Ch. 3 - Monitoring quality of power equipment. Mechanical...Ch. 3 - Appeals of federal civil trials. The Journal of...Ch. 3 - Characteristics of a new product. The long-run...Ch. 3 - Testing a watch manufacturers claim. A...Ch. 3 - Ranking razor blades. The corporations in the...Ch. 3 - Reliability of gas station air gauges. Tire and...Ch. 3 - Which events are independent? Use your intuitive...Ch. 3 - Home modifications for wheelchair users. The...Ch. 3 - World Cup soccer match draws. Every 4 years the...Ch. 3 - Chance of an Avon sale. The probability that an...Ch. 3 - Drug testing in athletes. When Olympic athletes...Ch. 3 - Profile of a sustainable farmer. Sustainable...Ch. 3 - Evaluating the performance of quality inspectors....Ch. 3 - Using game simulation to teach a course. In...Ch. 3 - Patient medical instruction sheets. Physicians and...Ch. 3 - Detecting traces of TNT. University of Florida...Ch. 3 - The three-dice gambling problem. According to...Ch. 3 - Scrap rate of machine parts. A press produces...Ch. 3 - Chance of winning at craps. A version of the dice...Ch. 3 - Chance of winning blackjack. Blackjack, a favorite...Ch. 3 - Software defects in NASA spacecraft instrument...Ch. 3 - Lets Make a Deal. Marilyn vos Savant, who is...Ch. 3 - Flawed Pentium computer chip. In October 1994, a...Ch. 3 - Exit polls are conducted in selected locations as...Ch. 3 - Define events A and B as follows: A: {Purchase...Ch. 3 - Now define events A and B in this manner: A:...
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