The probability of completing the project in 17 months. Introduction: The activity times of various tasks in a PERT project network are assumed to follow a probability distribution. For calculating the expected times and standard deviation, the parameters required are the following: Optimistic time : This is the time denoted by “a”, which is the best possible or in other words, the quickest time in which an activity can be completed, assuming that everything goes as per plan. Pessimistic time : This is the worst case scenario, where all the conditions are adverse or unfavorable. The maximum time which may be taken in such a situation is the pessimistic time denoted by “b”. Most likely time : The most realistic estimate of the time, denoted by “m” in normal conditions, is another parameter which is important in the computation of expected times and variances.

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Answer 1

Question

Chapter 3, Problem 23P

a)

Summary Introduction

To determine:The probability of completing the project in 17 months.

Introduction:

The activity times of various tasks in a PERT project network are assumed to follow a probability distribution. For calculating the expected times and standard deviation, the parameters required are the following:

Optimistic time: This is the time denoted by “a”, which is the best possible or in other words, the quickest time in which an activity can be completed, assuming that everything goes as per plan.

Pessimistic time: This is the worst case scenario, where all the conditions are adverse or unfavorable. The maximum time which may be taken in such a situation is the pessimistic time denoted by “b”.

Most likely time: The most realistic estimate of the time, denoted by “m” in normal conditions, is another parameter which is important in the computation of expected times and variances.

b)

Summary Introduction

To determine:The probability of completing the project in 20 months.

c)

Summary Introduction

To determine:The probability of completing the project in 23 months.

d)

Summary Introduction

To determine:The probability of completing the project in 25 months.

e)

Summary Introduction

To compute: The due date that yields a 95% chance of completion.

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Using PERT, Adam Munson was able to determinethat the expected project completion time for the construction ofa pleasure yacht is 21 months, and the project variance is 4.a) What is the probability that the project will be completed in17 months?b) What is the probability that the project will be completed in20 months?c) What is the probability that the project will be completed in23 months?d) What is the probability that the project will be completed in25 months?e) What is the due date that yields a 95% chance of completion?

Using PERT, Adam Munson was a ble to determinethat the expected project completion time for the construction ofa pleasure yacht is 21 months, and the project va riance is 4.a) What is the probability that the project will be completed in17 months?b) What is the probability that the project will be completed in20 months?c) What is the probability that the project will be completed in23 months?d) What is the probability that the project will be completed in25 months?e) What is the due date that yields a 95% chance of completion?

A company is willing to develop their rocket before the end of current financial year which is now 28 weeks away. The chief engineer of the company has decided to use PERT technique in order to plan, schedule and control program of development for the data given in table below. What is the probability that the program will be completed by the end of the current financial year? (all durations are in weeks). (i) G) Optimum Duration Most likely duration Pesimistic duration 1 2 3 8 13 3 2 8 4 3 8 10 4 7 10 3 6. 3 8 4 9 10 4 8. 4 9. 5 7 9. 12 6. 5 11 7 9. 14 8 4. 00 2.

Answer 2

Question

Chapter 3, Problem 23P

a)

Summary Introduction

To determine:The probability of completing the project in 17 months.

Introduction:

The activity times of various tasks in a PERT project network are assumed to follow a probability distribution. For calculating the expected times and standard deviation, the parameters required are the following:

Optimistic time: This is the time denoted by “a”, which is the best possible or in other words, the quickest time in which an activity can be completed, assuming that everything goes as per plan.

Pessimistic time: This is the worst case scenario, where all the conditions are adverse or unfavorable. The maximum time which may be taken in such a situation is the pessimistic time denoted by “b”.

Most likely time: The most realistic estimate of the time, denoted by “m” in normal conditions, is another parameter which is important in the computation of expected times and variances.

b)

Summary Introduction

To determine:The probability of completing the project in 20 months.

c)

Summary Introduction

To determine:The probability of completing the project in 23 months.

d)

Summary Introduction

To determine:The probability of completing the project in 25 months.

e)

Summary Introduction

To compute: The due date that yields a 95% chance of completion.

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Answer 3

Question

Chapter 3, Problem 23P

a)

Summary Introduction

To determine:The probability of completing the project in 17 months.

Introduction:

The activity times of various tasks in a PERT project network are assumed to follow a probability distribution. For calculating the expected times and standard deviation, the parameters required are the following:

Optimistic time: This is the time denoted by “a”, which is the best possible or in other words, the quickest time in which an activity can be completed, assuming that everything goes as per plan.

Pessimistic time: This is the worst case scenario, where all the conditions are adverse or unfavorable. The maximum time which may be taken in such a situation is the pessimistic time denoted by “b”.

Most likely time: The most realistic estimate of the time, denoted by “m” in normal conditions, is another parameter which is important in the computation of expected times and variances.

b)

Summary Introduction

To determine:The probability of completing the project in 20 months.

c)

Summary Introduction

To determine:The probability of completing the project in 23 months.

d)

Summary Introduction

To determine:The probability of completing the project in 25 months.

e)

Summary Introduction

To compute: The due date that yields a 95% chance of completion.

Expert Solution & Answer

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Answer 4

Question

Chapter 3, Problem 23P

a)

Summary Introduction

To determine:The probability of completing the project in 17 months.

Introduction:

The activity times of various tasks in a PERT project network are assumed to follow a probability distribution. For calculating the expected times and standard deviation, the parameters required are the following:

Optimistic time: This is the time denoted by “a”, which is the best possible or in other words, the quickest time in which an activity can be completed, assuming that everything goes as per plan.

Pessimistic time: This is the worst case scenario, where all the conditions are adverse or unfavorable. The maximum time which may be taken in such a situation is the pessimistic time denoted by “b”.

Most likely time: The most realistic estimate of the time, denoted by “m” in normal conditions, is another parameter which is important in the computation of expected times and variances.

b)

Summary Introduction

To determine:The probability of completing the project in 20 months.

c)

Summary Introduction

To determine:The probability of completing the project in 23 months.

d)

Summary Introduction

To determine:The probability of completing the project in 25 months.

e)

Summary Introduction

To compute: The due date that yields a 95% chance of completion.

Expert Solution & Answer

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Answer 5

Chapter 3, Problem 23P

a)

Summary Introduction

To determine:The probability of completing the project in 17 months.

Introduction:

The activity times of various tasks in a PERT project network are assumed to follow a probability distribution. For calculating the expected times and standard deviation, the parameters required are the following:

Optimistic time: This is the time denoted by “a”, which is the best possible or in other words, the quickest time in which an activity can be completed, assuming that everything goes as per plan.

Pessimistic time: This is the worst case scenario, where all the conditions are adverse or unfavorable. The maximum time which may be taken in such a situation is the pessimistic time denoted by “b”.

Most likely time: The most realistic estimate of the time, denoted by “m” in normal conditions, is another parameter which is important in the computation of expected times and variances.

b)

Summary Introduction

To determine:The probability of completing the project in 20 months.

c)

Summary Introduction

To determine:The probability of completing the project in 23 months.

d)

Summary Introduction

To determine:The probability of completing the project in 25 months.

e)

Summary Introduction

To compute: The due date that yields a 95% chance of completion.

Answer 6

Chapter 3, Problem 23P

a)

Summary Introduction

To determine:The probability of completing the project in 17 months.

Introduction:

The activity times of various tasks in a PERT project network are assumed to follow a probability distribution. For calculating the expected times and standard deviation, the parameters required are the following:

Optimistic time: This is the time denoted by “a”, which is the best possible or in other words, the quickest time in which an activity can be completed, assuming that everything goes as per plan.

Pessimistic time: This is the worst case scenario, where all the conditions are adverse or unfavorable. The maximum time which may be taken in such a situation is the pessimistic time denoted by “b”.

Most likely time: The most realistic estimate of the time, denoted by “m” in normal conditions, is another parameter which is important in the computation of expected times and variances.

Answer 7

Chapter 3, Problem 23P

a)

Summary Introduction

To determine:The probability of completing the project in 17 months.

Introduction:

The activity times of various tasks in a PERT project network are assumed to follow a probability distribution. For calculating the expected times and standard deviation, the parameters required are the following:

Optimistic time: This is the time denoted by “a”, which is the best possible or in other words, the quickest time in which an activity can be completed, assuming that everything goes as per plan.

Pessimistic time: This is the worst case scenario, where all the conditions are adverse or unfavorable. The maximum time which may be taken in such a situation is the pessimistic time denoted by “b”.

Most likely time: The most realistic estimate of the time, denoted by “m” in normal conditions, is another parameter which is important in the computation of expected times and variances.

Answer 8

b)

Summary Introduction

To determine:The probability of completing the project in 20 months.

Answer 9

b)

Summary Introduction

To determine:The probability of completing the project in 20 months.

Answer 10

c)

Summary Introduction

To determine:The probability of completing the project in 23 months.

Answer 11

c)

Summary Introduction

To determine:The probability of completing the project in 23 months.

Answer 12

d)

Summary Introduction

To determine:The probability of completing the project in 25 months.

Answer 13

d)

Summary Introduction

To determine:The probability of completing the project in 25 months.

Answer 14

e)

Summary Introduction

To compute: The due date that yields a 95% chance of completion.

Answer 15

e)

Summary Introduction

To compute: The due date that yields a 95% chance of completion.

Answer 16

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Answer 17

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Answer 18

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Answer 19

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Solution Summary: The author calculates the probability of completing a project in 17 months by dividing the difference of 17 and 21 with 2 to determine the most realistic estimate of the time.

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To determine:The probability of completing the project in 20 months.

To determine:The probability of completing the project in 23 months.

To determine:The probability of completing the project in 25 months.

To compute: The due date that yields a 95% chance of completion.

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