do fast The professor of an introductory calculus class has stated that, historically, the distribution of finalexam grades in the course resembles a normal distribution with a mean final exam mark of = 63%and a standard deviation of σ = 9%.(a) What is the probability that a randomly chosen final exam mark in this course will be at least71%? Answer to four decimals.(b) In order to pass this course, a student must have a final exam mark of at least 50%. Whatproportion of students will not pass the final exam? Use four decimals in your answer.(c) The top 3% of students writing the final exam will receive a letter grade of at least A in thecourse. To two decimal places, find the minimum final exam mark needed to earn a letter grade of atleast A in the course.%(d) Suppose this professor randomly picked 30 final exams, observing the earned mark on each.What is the probability that 3 of these exams will have a grade of less than 50%? Use four decimalsin your answer.

Note: let me know if you need internal calculation

Answered: The professor of an introductory…

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter11: Simulation Models

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 48P: Based on Marcus (1990). The Balboa mutual fund has beaten the Standard and Poors 500 during 11 of...

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Assume a very good NBA team has a 70% chance of winning in each game it plays. During an 82-game season what is the average length of the teams longest winning streak? What is the probability that the team has a winning streak of at least 16 games? Use simulation to answer these questions, where each iteration of the simulation generates the outcomes of all 82 games.
Dilberts Department Store is trying to determine how many Hanson T-shirts to order. Currently the shirts are sold for 21, but at later dates the shirts will be offered at a 10% discount, then a 20% discount, then a 40% discount, then a 50% discount, and finally a 60% discount. Demand at the full price of 21 is believed to be normally distributed with mean 1800 and standard deviation 360. Demand at various discounts is assumed to be a multiple of full-price demand. These multiples, for discounts of 10%, 20%, 40%, 50%, and 60% are, respectively, 0.4, 0.7, 1.1, 2, and 50. For example, if full-price demand is 2500, then at a 10% discount customers would be willing to buy 1000 T-shirts. The unit cost of purchasing T-shirts depends on the number of T-shirts ordered, as shown in the file P10_36.xlsx. Use simulation to determine how many T-shirts the company should order. Model the problem so that the company first orders some quantity of T-shirts, then discounts deeper and deeper, as necessary, to sell all of the shirts.
The game of Chuck-a-Luck is played as follows: You pick a number between 1 and 6 and toss three dice. If your number does not appear, you lose 1. If your number appears x times, you win x. On the average, use simulation to find the average amount of money you will win or lose on each play of the game.
You now have 10,000, all of which is invested in a sports team. Each year there is a 60% chance that the value of the team will increase by 60% and a 40% chance that the value of the team will decrease by 60%. Estimate the mean and median value of your investment after 50 years. Explain the large difference between the estimated mean and median.
Based on Marcus (1990). The Balboa mutual fund has beaten the Standard and Poors 500 during 11 of the last 13 years. People use this as an argument that you can beat the market. Here is another way to look at it that shows that Balboas beating the market 11 out of 13 times is not unusual. Consider 50 mutual funds, each of which has a 50% chance of beating the market during a given year. Use simulation to estimate the probability that over a 13-year period the best of the 50 mutual funds will beat the market for at least 11 out of 13 years. This probability turns out to exceed 40%, which means that the best mutual fund beating the market 11 out of 13 years is not an unusual occurrence after all.
Based on Babich (1992). Suppose that each week each of 300 families buys a gallon of orange juice from company A, B, or C. Let pA denote the probability that a gallon produced by company A is of unsatisfactory quality, and define pB and pC similarly for companies B and C. If the last gallon of juice purchased by a family is satisfactory, the next week they will purchase a gallon of juice from the same company. If the last gallon of juice purchased by a family is not satisfactory, the family will purchase a gallon from a competitor. Consider a week in which A families have purchased juice A, B families have purchased juice B, and C families have purchased juice C. Assume that families that switch brands during a period are allocated to the remaining brands in a manner that is proportional to the current market shares of the other brands. For example, if a customer switches from brand A, there is probability B/(B + C) that he will switch to brand B and probability C/(B + C) that he will switch to brand C. Suppose that the market is currently divided equally: 10,000 families for each of the three brands. a. After a year, what will the market share for each firm be? Assume pA = 0.10, pB = 0.15, and pC = 0.20. (Hint: You will need to use the RISKBINOMLAL function to see how many people switch from A and then use the RISKBENOMIAL function again to see how many switch from A to B and from A to C. However, if your model requires more RISKBINOMIAL functions than the number allowed in the academic version of @RISK, remember that you can instead use the BENOM.INV (or the old CRITBENOM) function to generate binomially distributed random numbers. This takes the form =BINOM.INV (ntrials, psuccess, RAND()).) b. Suppose a 1% increase in market share is worth 10,000 per week to company A. Company A believes that for a cost of 1 million per year it can cut the percentage of unsatisfactory juice cartons in half. Is this worthwhile? (Use the same values of pA, pB, and pC as in part a.)
A new edition of a very popular textbook will be published a year from now. The publisher currently has 1000 copies on hand and is deciding whether to do another printing before the new edition comes out. The publisher estimates that demand for the book during the next year is governed by the probability distribution in the file P10_31.xlsx. A production run incurs a fixed cost of 15,000 plus a variable cost of 20 per book printed. Books are sold for 190 per book. Any demand that cannot be met incurs a penalty cost of 30 per book, due to loss of goodwill. Up to 1000 of any leftover books can be sold to Barnes and Noble for 45 per book. The publisher is interested in maximizing expected profit. The following print-run sizes are under consideration: 0 (no production run) to 16,000 in increments of 2000. What decision would you recommend? Use simulation with 1000 replications. For your optimal decision, the publisher can be 90% certain that the actual profit associated with remaining sales of the current edition will be between what two values?
Bill Hardgrave, production foreman for the Virginia Fruit Company, estimates that the average sales of oranges is 4,700 and the standard deviation is 500 oranges. Sales follow a normal distribution.a) What is the probability that sales will be greater than 5,500 oranges?b) What is the probability that sales will be greater than 4,500 oranges?c) What is the probability that sales will be less than 4,900 oranges?d) What is the probability that sales will be less than 4,300 oranges?
The Polo Development Firm is building a shopping center. It has informed renters that their rental spaces will be ready for occupancy in 19 months. If the expected time until the shopping center is completed is estimated to be 14 months, with a standard deviation of 4 months, what is the probability that the renters will not be able to occupy in 19 months?
Precision Parts is a job shop that specializes in producing electric motor shafts. The average shaft size for the E300 electric motor is .55 inch, with a standard deviation of .10 inch. It is normally distributed. What is the probability that a shaft selected at random will be between .55 and .65 inch?
A life insurance company has determined that each week an average of 7 claims is filed in its Nashville branch. What is the probability that during the next week no claims will be filed? A 0.0009 B 0.149 C 0.0818 D 0.001 Using Poisson distributionDefine event X, Interveral, Average weekly claim =, f(x) on Excel
Suppose you sample one value from a uniform distribution with a = 0 and b=20. a. What is the probability that the value will be between 12 and 172 b. What is the probability that the value will be between 4 and 72 c. What is the mean? d. What is the standard deviation? a. The probability that the value will be between 12 and 17 is (Type an integer or a decimal)

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