Amid growing concerns that a virus outbreak from Asia will turn to a global pandemic, Ivan the Investor is weighing his options of investing in energy markets, airlines/travel, or emerging technologies such as companies specializing in video conferencing. Ivan sees the near future as bringing one of three possibilities: the virus will be controlled and will not spread globally; there we will be a short term global pandemic that causes disruptions in the immediate future, but will then be controlled within 18–24 months; there will be a global pandemic that causes long-term disruptions for longer than two years. On the basis of past experience, the Ivan estimates the following rates of return (measured in annual interest rates) for each eventuality. Future Virus is Controlled Short-term Pandemic Long-term Pandemic Investor Energy Markets Travel 8% 5% 0% -5% 6% -5% -8% 10% Technology Sector 4%

ENGR.ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
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Chapter1: Making Economics Decisions
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Amid growing concerns that a virus outbreak from Asia will turn to a global pandemic, Ivan
the Investor is weighing his options of investing in energy markets, airlines/travel, or emerging
technologies such as companies specializing in video conferencing. Ivan sees the near future
as bringing one of three possibilities: the virus will be controlled and will not spread globally;
there we will be a short term global pandemic that causes disruptions in the immediate future,
but will then be controlled within 18-24 months; there will be a global pandemic that causes
long-term disruptions for longer than two years. On the basis of past experience, the Ivan
estimates the following rates of return (measured in annual interest rates) for each eventuality.
Future
Virus is Controlled Short-term Pandemic Long-term Pandemic
Investor
0%
8%
5%
Energy Markets
-5%
-8%
10%
-5%
6%
Travel
Technology Sector
4%
Transcribed Image Text:Amid growing concerns that a virus outbreak from Asia will turn to a global pandemic, Ivan the Investor is weighing his options of investing in energy markets, airlines/travel, or emerging technologies such as companies specializing in video conferencing. Ivan sees the near future as bringing one of three possibilities: the virus will be controlled and will not spread globally; there we will be a short term global pandemic that causes disruptions in the immediate future, but will then be controlled within 18-24 months; there will be a global pandemic that causes long-term disruptions for longer than two years. On the basis of past experience, the Ivan estimates the following rates of return (measured in annual interest rates) for each eventuality. Future Virus is Controlled Short-term Pandemic Long-term Pandemic Investor 0% 8% 5% Energy Markets -5% -8% 10% -5% 6% Travel Technology Sector 4%
(a) Reduce the game to a 2 × 2 game using established elimination techniques.
(b) Find the investor's optimal investment strategy.
(c) Assuming that the investor uses the investment strategy you found above, find the expected
payoffs to the investor in each of the three possible resulting futures: the virus is controlled,
there is a short-term pandemic, there is a long-term pandemic.
Transcribed Image Text:(a) Reduce the game to a 2 × 2 game using established elimination techniques. (b) Find the investor's optimal investment strategy. (c) Assuming that the investor uses the investment strategy you found above, find the expected payoffs to the investor in each of the three possible resulting futures: the virus is controlled, there is a short-term pandemic, there is a long-term pandemic.
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