1) View the video Service Processing at BuyCostumes (10.41 minutes, Ctrl+Click on the link); what are your key takeaways (tie to one or more of the topics discussed in Chapter 3) after watching this video. (viddler.com/embed/a6b7054c) Note: As a rough guideline, please try to keep the written submission to one or two paragraphs. 2) Orkhon Foods makes hand-held pies (among other products). The firm’s weekly sales of hand-held pies over the past seven weeks are given in the table. The firm’s operations manager, Amarjargal, wants to forecast sales for week 8. Weeks Sales of hand-held pies(000s) 1 19 2 18 3 17 4 20 5 18 6 22 7 20 Forecast the week 8 sales using the following approaches: a) Naïve approach b) 5-month moving average c) 3-month weighted moving average using the following weights: 0.50 for week 7, 0.30 for week 6, and 0.20 for week 5. d) Exponential smoothing using a smoothing constant of 0.30, assume a week 2 forecast of 19 (000s). Note: You could work out the problem by hand or use excel; in chapter 3, section 3.8 of the Stevenson text, forecasts based on time-series data (naive methods, techniques for averaging) are covered with examples; chapter 3 Stevenson lecture power point slides 16 to 22, 25 to 29 (chapter 3 lecture: 8.37 mins to 14.18 mins, 17.50 mins to 20.20 mins) cover forecasts based on time-series data (naive methods, techniques for averaging) with examples. 3) The demand and forecasts for the accessories of Dornogovi Medical’s Spectralis ophthalmic diagnostic imaging device for the past four months is given below. Sales Forecast Error Abs Error Error squared Pct. error 80 60 100 80 105 95 90 75 Sum = Sum = Sum = n = n = n = MAD = MSE = MAPE = a) Calculate MAD, MSE, and MAPE. b) Which would be the better measure (MAD/MSE/MAPE) to use, and why?
1) View the video Service Processing at BuyCostumes (10.41 minutes, Ctrl+Click on the link); what are your key takeaways (tie to one or more of the topics discussed in Chapter 3) after watching this video. (viddler.com/embed/a6b7054c)
Note: As a rough guideline, please try to keep the written submission to one or two paragraphs.
2) Orkhon Foods makes hand-held pies (among other products). The firm’s weekly sales of hand-held pies over the past seven weeks are given in the table. The firm’s operations manager, Amarjargal, wants to forecast sales for week 8.
|
Weeks |
Sales of hand-held pies(000s) |
|
1 |
19 |
|
2 |
18 |
|
3 |
17 |
|
4 |
20 |
|
5 |
18 |
|
6 |
22 |
|
7 |
20 |
Forecast the week 8 sales using the following approaches:
- a) Naïve approach
- b) 5-month moving average
- c) 3-month weighted moving average using the following weights: 0.50 for week 7, 0.30 for week 6, and 0.20 for week 5.
- d) Exponential smoothing using a smoothing constant of 0.30, assume a week 2 forecast of 19 (000s).
Note: You could work out the problem by hand or use excel; in chapter 3, section 3.8 of the Stevenson text, forecasts based on time-series data (naive methods, techniques for averaging) are covered with examples; chapter 3 Stevenson lecture power point slides 16 to 22, 25 to 29 (chapter 3 lecture: 8.37 mins to 14.18 mins, 17.50 mins to 20.20 mins) cover forecasts based on time-series data (naive methods, techniques for averaging) with examples.
3) The demand and forecasts for the accessories of Dornogovi Medical’s Spectralis ophthalmic diagnostic imaging device for the past four months is given below.
|
Sales |
Forecast |
Error |
Abs Error |
Error squared |
Pct. error |
|
80 |
60 |
|
|
|
|
|
100 |
80 |
|
|
|
|
|
105 |
95 |
|
|
|
|
|
90 |
75 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sum = |
Sum = |
Sum = |
|
|
|
|
n = |
n = |
n = |
|
|
|
|
MAD = |
MSE = |
MAPE = |
- a) Calculate MAD, MSE, and MAPE.
- b) Which would be the better measure (MAD/MSE/MAPE) to use, and why?
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