(1) O Construct a network diagram with activity on arrow method; (1) Estimate the expected project completion time and the critical path activities; (i) Ifa 30 months deadline is imposed, what is the probability that the project will be completed within the specified time limit?

Practical Management Science
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ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
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Q.3 The President of research division of Oman phamaceutical company has planned
to develop a new drug in the treatment of Cancer. He has identified 11 groups in
his division which will need to carry out different phases of this research and
development project. Referring to the work to be done by the respective groups as
activities A, B, ., K, the precedence relationships for when these groups need to
do their work along with the time estimates of these activities are listed in
Table Q.3 below.
Table Q.3
Time (months)
Optimistic Most likely
Activity Precedence
Pessimistic
A
B
3
2
15
2
2
21
A
1.5
2.5
24
D
B
1.5
2
22
E
A
1.5
3.5
13
F
2
1.5
19
G
2.5
3
19
H
B
2.5
2
17
E &F
G&H
1.5
2
11
J
3
3.5
15
K
1 & J
3
20
(1)
Construct a network diagram with activity on arrow method;
(i) Estimate the expected project completion time and the critical path
activities;
(ii) If a 30 months deadline is imposed, what is the probability that the project
will be completed within the specified time limit?
(iv) If the President wants to be 99.8% sure that the project is completed on
the schedule date, how many months before should he start the project.
Transcribed Image Text:Q.3 The President of research division of Oman phamaceutical company has planned to develop a new drug in the treatment of Cancer. He has identified 11 groups in his division which will need to carry out different phases of this research and development project. Referring to the work to be done by the respective groups as activities A, B, ., K, the precedence relationships for when these groups need to do their work along with the time estimates of these activities are listed in Table Q.3 below. Table Q.3 Time (months) Optimistic Most likely Activity Precedence Pessimistic A B 3 2 15 2 2 21 A 1.5 2.5 24 D B 1.5 2 22 E A 1.5 3.5 13 F 2 1.5 19 G 2.5 3 19 H B 2.5 2 17 E &F G&H 1.5 2 11 J 3 3.5 15 K 1 & J 3 20 (1) Construct a network diagram with activity on arrow method; (i) Estimate the expected project completion time and the critical path activities; (ii) If a 30 months deadline is imposed, what is the probability that the project will be completed within the specified time limit? (iv) If the President wants to be 99.8% sure that the project is completed on the schedule date, how many months before should he start the project.
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