W05 Research Evaluation

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Feb 20, 2024

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W05 Research Evaluation – Overconfidence Describe and evaluate the purpose(s) and hypothesis (or hypotheses) of the research. Overconfidence plays a role in the relationships someone may have with others. According to our textbook, Social Psychology , overconfidence is when someone is “more confident than correct” (Myers & Twenge, 2022). The purpose of this study was to find what role of overconfidence has in romantic desirability and competition. The hypothesis of this study is that people who are overconfident in their self-assessments may be more successful in attracting mates (Murphy et al., 2015). By proving this hypothesis, the researchers could learn more about dating and the perceived attitudes people may have toward those who seem overconfident. Describe and evaluate the research participants and the research setting. The researchers conducted 5 different studies, in which the participants often changed in each one. All participants were recruited online through Amazon’s Mechanical Turk (Mturk). In Study 1, the authors (participants who completed a measure of overconfidence and then wrote dating profiles) were heterosexual North Americans. 53.8% of them were female and 59.5% were aged 25 years or older. The raters (participants who rated these profiles for their confidence and desirability as romantic partners) were North Americans. 58.7% of them were female and 65.1% were aged 25 years or older. The raters would then rate the profiles of the authors that matched their sexual orientation (53 participants identified as heterosexual, 4 as homosexual, and 6 as bisexual which were assigned opposite gender profiles). Study 2 was the same as Study one, except that the sample size was increased to find a possible small direct effect of overconfidence on romantic desirability, and that each profile was also rated for arrogance. In this study, the authors were 64.4% female and 62.6% were aged 25 years or older. The raters were 36% female and 64.9% were aged 25 years or older. 306 of the participants were heterosexual, 5 were homosexual, and 22 were bisexual. Each rater evaluated

W05 Research Evaluation – Overconfidence only 15 profiles, but as there were more raters per profile than there were in Study 1, each profile was still rated an average of 11 times. In Study 3, a hypothetical dating pool with new participants (competitors) was introduced to compete with the profiles from Study 2. In this study, the competitors were heterosexual and from North America. 46.1% of them were female and were on average, about 31.47 years old. In Study 4, the authors and competitors were heterosexual North Americans. 40.1% were female and averaged 28.83 years old. Raters were heterosexual North Americans and 59.3% were female who averaged 29.58 years old. Study 5 used agent-based modeling, which uses computer simulations, so no participants were needed. For each study, the research was conducted in an online setting and participants consented to the use of their information for the study. The study was conducted in 2014 and accepted in 2015 for publication. Identify and describe the independent and dependent variables. The independent variable in the study was the profiles created and the overconfidence shown in each one. The dependent variable was the level of attraction experienced by the raters to each profile. Describe and evaluate the research design, materials used, and the procedures involved in the experiment. To measure overconfidence, the authors (those who made profiles) completed the Overclaiming Questionnaire which measures overconfidence through the tendency to overclaim or claim knowledge that one does not have. It has 150 items, some of which have non-existent foils that challenge participants to rate their familiarity with fake items to evaluate the tendency to overclaim. After taking the questionnaire, participants created online dating profiles.

W05 Research Evaluation – Overconfidence According to the study, authors “were asked to imagine themselves as romantically unattached and prepare a profile to attract members of the opposite sex and to write a short dating profile that would give a prospective mate a better idea about them” (Murphy et al., 2015). To rate the profiles, raters were given between 28-32 profiles randomly, which they were to rate on two single-item measures: how confident the author seemed and how desirable as a dating partner he or she seemed. They were provided a 4-point scale, from 1 ( not at all ) to 4 ( very ). Raters were told that they should rate the profiles intended as brief self-descriptions and were asked to use their intuition to make judgments about the authors. Study 1 and Study 2 were conducted in the same way. Study 3 introduced the competitors. They were asked to create profiles as the same participants in Study 1, but they were not rated. The competitors read five randomly chosen profiles that were chosen from Study 2. They were told that they were competing against the author of each profile. They were then asked, “How pleasant do you think it would be to sit at the table (with the author)?” They would then use a 5-point scale from 1 = very unpleasant to 5 = very pleasant . They were then asked, “How easy do you think it would be to deal with (the author)?” They would then use a scale from 1 = very difficult to 5 = very easy . Finally, the competitors were asked, “Which table would you choose to sit at?” And would choose between a binary left–right decision. Study 4 evaluated the authors and competitors by having them complete two 25 multiple- choice tests which were gathered from online sources and pre-tested for an average accuracy of 75%. After each test, participants rated their performance compared with fellow Mturk workers on a 100-point percentile scale. Finally, study 4 had the participants complete a 25-item form of the OCQ.

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W05 Research Evaluation – Overconfidence Describe and evaluate the results and the discussion of the results. In Study 1, individuals displaying overconfidence were seen as having greater self- assurance in their dating profiles, and profiles exuding confidence were considered more appealing. However, there was no direct correlation between overconfidence and romantic desirability. The findings from Study 2 revealed conflicting influences shaping overconfidence, where the favorable impact of confidence on desirability was offset by the detrimental effect of arrogance. Consequently, individuals with overconfidence enhance their romantic appeal through displays of confidence, but simultaneously diminish it through manifestations of arrogance. Study 3 found that overconfidence had an advantage in mate competition. Perceived confidence and arrogance deterred potential competitors from romantic attention, and this was partly because competing with overconfident individuals was seen as difficult and unpleasant. However, individuals might avoid competing not just due to these factors but also because they fear leaving a negative impression on the romantic target. Overall, overconfident individuals managed to reduce their competition for romantic partners, highlighting the potential benefits of overconfidence despite not always being more romantically desirable. In Study 4, overconfident individuals who appeared more self-assured were more inclined to take risks in seeking romantic partners, even though they didn't earn more from their increased competition. This suggests that overconfident people tend to discourage competition and are less easily discouraged themselves. Study 4 also reaffirmed these findings using a composite measure of overconfidence, which didn't directly assess individuals' self-perceived desirability as dating partners.

W05 Research Evaluation – Overconfidence In Study 5, simulations showed that the impact of overconfidence in mate competition depends on the number of competitors. When competition is moderate to high, arrogance's negative effects lessen, while confidence's positive effects increase, resulting in a favorable combination for expected mating success. These findings support the idea that overconfidence primarily benefits mating success in intrasexual competition. The study unveiled a complex interplay of advantages and drawbacks associated with overconfidence in terms of romantic appeal. In contrast to prior research that suggested overconfident individuals only enjoy benefits, the current findings demonstrate a more intricate relationship where overconfidence can have both positive and negative implications for perceived competence. Evaluate the strengths and limitations of the research. One of the strengths of this research is the different studies conducted within it. One of the limitations of it is that the use of a photo of the participants could have made an impact in the study, changing the results. Based on your evaluation of this research, what are some potential ideas for further research? Including a photo in the research and not including one could show some interesting results that could further the research. Describe the relationship between the article you selected and the concept from the text. Apply the research article to your own experience. The article obviously focused more on romantic relationships and the role overconfidence plays than our textbook does. Our reading, gives a lot of other examples of overconfidence showing in situations.

W05 Research Evaluation – Overconfidence Resources Murphy, S. C., von Hippel, W., Dubbs, S. L., Angilletta, M. J., Jr., Wilson, R. S., Trivers, R., & Barlow, F. K. (2015). The role of overconfidence in romantic desirability and competition. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin , 41 (8), 1036–1052. https://doi.org/10.1177/0146167215588754 Myers D. G. & Twenge J. M. (2022). Social psychology (Fourteenth, p. 26). McGraw Hill Education.

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