Lindsey_SSGS500_Research Proposal

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Assessing the Taiwan’s Strategic Importance to the United States Alex Lindsey American Military University Dr. Yvette Aguiar SSGS500 Research Design and Method

Table of Contents Page Abstract 1 Introduction 2 Literature Review 3 Literature Review: Theoretical Framework 3 Literature Review: Strategic Value Verses Political Liability 4 Literature Review: Freedom of Navigation and Expansion of Influence 5 Literature Review: Credibility 6 Literature Review: Conclusion 7 Research Design and Methods 7 Conclusions 10 References 11 i

Abstract Since the late 1970s, the United States has utilized the island nation of Taiwan as a proxy tool to concentrate Chinese core-interest and denied their military from increasing their influence in the waters of the Asia-Pacific region. Change within the international environment has offer China the opportunity to close the military capabilities and technological gaps that now require a reassessment of Taiwan’s strategic importance. Examining the problem-set, suggests that Taiwan still possesses a strategic importance, but no analysis has been conducted on second third, or fourth order affects if the Taiwan was no longer an important factor to the United States security interest in the Asia-Pacific region. The objective of this research is to examine the impacts to the implementation of the United States security interests in the Asia- Pacific area after the removal of Taiwan from the U.S. national security strategy through the unification of Taiwan and China, or decision by U.S. policymakers that determine that Taiwan no longer serves as a strategic importance against the Chinese. Keywords: Realist Theory, United States, National Security Strategy, Security Interests, Taiwan, China, Unification

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Introduction The United States and Taiwan have had an unofficial relationship since the late 1970s, in which the United States has benefited from. The last 30 years has seen the United States prevail as the dominant superpower in the world with advance technology and the ability to deploy troops anywhere around the world within hours. The United States has used Taiwan as an asset to distract the People’s Republic of China (PRC) from focusing its attention to the rest of the Pacific-Asia region. However, things have change in the region and China has been able to close the technology and numbers gap with trained and deployable soldiers. Thus, bringing into question whether the United States should continue involving Taiwan into its National Security Policy and if Taiwan is still a strategic value. This research paper seeks to understand the contributing factors that binds the relationship between the United States and Taiwan as the Pacific-Asia regional control moves into China’s favor. Since the event of September 11 th , the United States security priorities have been tested in maintaining the status quo global military balance (Xinbo 2002, p.234). The United States national security strategy continues to be evaluated and forced to make adjustments to maintain dominance to an ever-changing security environment. An environment that once prioritized major state actors, and now must respond and counter with threats from non-state actors. The change in international priorities means that the United States must determine whether the security concerns established by the close relationship with Taiwan and utilizing that relationship to counter the Chinese military and political ambition tactically and strategically in the Asia-Pacific region, is worth the risk of entering into a conflict with China (Hickey 2013, p.16). The possibility of removing Taiwan from the U.S. security strategies

requires a complete analysis to determine the level of consequences that U.S. interest and operations in the region would face. Literature Review The review of the available literature on strategic importance of Taiwan to the United States national security showed the following common themes: First, Taiwan’s proximity to the Chinese mainland does provide a strategic importance but has made itself a liability for the United States continues to uphold its commitments as stated in the Taiwanese Relations Act. Next, China control over Taiwan would cause a disruption of freely navigating the South and East China Seas and gain China the ability to increase its influence in the region. Finally, the removal of Taiwan from the national security strategy and the unification of China and Taiwan would have a negative effect on the United States’ credibility as regional partners and allies would doubt the commitment of defense and trade with United States caused by Chinese expansion. Literature Review: Theoretical Framework The theoretical framework that is best suited for the intention of this research is the Realist Theory (RT). The research encompasses examining and assessing major state actors and the decisions of their policymakers regarding the interest of their nations. The United States, China, Taiwan, and other regional state actors all contribute and influence how the United States security interests are established as the results of unification of China and Taiwan, or by the U.S policymakers’ decision to remove Taiwan from the national security strategies. Incorporating RT into the Taiwan problem-set, the United States is allowed to limit the amount of attention that will be focused on the Asia-Pacific region by the People’s Republic

of China and keeping their attention concentrated on preventing Taiwan from being recognized as an independent state. (Xinbo 2002, p. 231). In conjunction with the enforcement of current policies, the United States has created a situation that eventually start a conflict with China regardless of Taiwan’s strategic importance. Additionally, incorporating RT into the research allows insights into China’s core-interests and strategies within the Asia- Pacific region. Literature Review: Strategic Importance v Political Liability Strategic Importance : The current geographical position of Taiwan to China makes the island state a sought-after asset by the People’s Republic of China. Approximately 112 miles from mainland China, the United States has strategically utilized Taiwan as a tool to prevent China from focusing its priorities with the South and East China Seas. The great World War II general, General Douglas MacArthur, called Taiwan the “unsinkable aircraft carrier”; which the de facto state is recognized as a strategic forward operation base for the United States should open conflict happen with China in the region. The available literature depicts that the United States security strategies method to prevent the Chinese expansion in the Asian seaboard has primarily relied on the status quo of Taiwan as a state. Yoshihara (2010), Raine (2011), Holmes (2014), and Liao and Lin (2015) all have stated that Taiwan is a vital strategic importance in preventing Chinese hegemony in the Asia-Pacific region. Taiwan is a natural barrier that prevents the People’s Liberation Army-Navy forces can navigate in the Taiwan Strait and the South and East China Seas. Furthermore, the literature discusses the de facto state’s capability of assisting the United States with its intelligence collection efforts in the Asia-Pacific region by conducting joint operation collection locations in Taiwan. Intelligence sharing between governments is some of the vital to happen outside the Five Eyes intelligence

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alliance, which could be damage should Taiwan lose its strategic importance for the United States. Political Liability : There are several advantages for the United States to maintain a close relationship with Taiwan as part of U.S. national security strategy; however, the debate about the political liability that will eventually lead the United States into conflict with China (Wu and Lin 2019, p. 354), or withdrawal from the informal alliance between the two nations. Wang (2010) and Kuo & Yeh (2015) have argued that the international shift within the international community the strategic importance of Taiwan has decreased. Resulting in China closing the gaps advantage that the United States possessed in technology and military capabilities to deter China from expanding its influence in the region. The instability could start with the forced unification of Taiwan and China is highly doubtful to be prevented by a continued U.S. presence within Taiwan and must be readjusted for future strategies. Literature Review: Freedom of Navigation and Expanding Influence Freedom of Navigation : Navigating the Taiwan Strait in their current conditions is becoming a challenge for the international community. As China continues to increase its military strength and capabilities it is also increasing its use of intimidation as it continues to lay claim of the sovereignty over the economic exclusion zones of several neighboring nations. Cina believes that any maritime traffic navigating the South China Seas or through the strait is violation of their territorial waters. The use of force utilized by China to protect their alleged sovereign has mostly been kept in check by the presence of U.S. naval forces in the region with the assistance of the Taiwanese military.

Scholars Song (2001), Xinbo (2003), Ong (2010), Holmes (2014), and Rosen (2017) have suggested that should the United States stopped its support to Taiwan, then China would not only conduct a force unification, but they would also deny the freedom of navigation to commercial and civilian maritime traffic, whether if they are complying with maritime law. China control of the maritime traffic would force other nations to pay a traveling fee in the region, which would impact the economic conditions and threaten the safety and security of vessel crews. However, the United States has already committed to several freedom of navigation operations in the region and continues to monitor for signs of any Chinese aggression that would constitute as a violation of international law, such an event would cause the United States to enter open conflict with China if violation were committed against allies that have mutual defense agreements. Expansion of Influence : Lee and Schreer (2013) have stated that losing Taiwan would provide China the opportunity to control deep water ports and give them the access to freely navigate the water into eastern Pacific Ocean. The security interests of the United States would then be challenged by relocating military assets to protect Guam and Hawaii from Chinese aggression. China’s influence would increase strength as they would be allowed to readjust their ballistic missile doctrine to concentrate on allied states and giving them the ability to coerce smaller states with the threat of force (Yoshihara 2016, p. 46). Putting major states such as Japan, Australia, and South Korea in a position to increase their relationships with China or have an open conflict with China. Literature Review: Credibility The United States Asia-Pacific Maritime Security Strategy depends on the rational decision-making of their regional partners, which is dependent on the United States keeping

their commitments to ensure free trade, protecting the status quo of economic stability, and providing reassurance to the security their regional partners with a strong military presence (Department of Defense 2015, p. 1). Hickey has stated that, “a major reduction in U.S. support for Taiwan could conceivably cause a small group of fanatics in Taiwan to panic and do something stupid in an effort to achieve de jure independence from China” (Hickey 2013, p. 188). Yet, the United States is not legally obligated to defend Taiwan, implemented defense policies have already been placed to provide support to major state allies such as Japan and Australia. A decrease of support or allowing unification to happen would severely damage the U.S. credibility with regional partners and question U.S. commitment to mutual defense agreements and security commitments. Literature Review: Conclusion The literature provided enough evidence to support the decision of policymakers to continue incorporating Taiwan into the national security strategy. Taiwan is still vital strategic importance that gives the United States the ability to uphold current security commitments. Yet, the literature did not provide enough analysis on the impact if security strategies support was decreased, withdrawn, or Taiwan if force into unification. Additional research is needed to determine if the strategic importance of Taiwan is enough for the United States be hindered in a way that it could not keep its security commitments or forced to relocate assets from vital areas around the world, disclosing new vulnerabilities in their national security strategy. Research Design and Methods The research concentrated on the impacts of the United States’ ability to keep its security commitments in the Asia-Pacific region and the readjustment of the national security

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strategies after the force unification of Taiwan. The following question and hypotheses will provide a guide to this research: RQ1: What is the extent would the United States security commitment in the region be impacted, if Taiwan were removed from the national security strategies or forced unification with China under the “One Government, Two System” policy happened? H1: The unification between China and Taiwan will force the United States to commit military assets to defend international shipping in the Taiwan Strait, defend freedom of navigation in the South and East China Seas, and readjust diplomatic ties in the region to reassure mutual defense agreement with regional partners. H2: A decision to end the informal ties and decommit to upholding the Taiwan Relation Act, resulting in the force unification between Taiwan and China, will cause the United States to readjust security strategies with minimum long-term effects and will cause open diplomatic conversations between governments to discuss regional stability problems. H3: Removal of Taiwan from the national security strategy will result in Taiwan leaders making a strong stance against the People’s Republic of China and cause the force unification that will cause open conflict and forcing regional allies and the United States to be involved to prevent PLA and PLAN from attacking Taiwan. Additionally, preventing China from solidifying their dominance onto the territories surrounding regional states.

The dependent variables to this research examined the United States security commitments with regional partners in the region. This variable is determined by analyzing the political, diplomatic, and military actions that the United States will conduct after Taiwan is not a factor in the national security strategy. This includes the action committed and not committed to assure security commitments with Australia, Japan, Singapore, South Korea, and other state actors residing in the region. Independent variables include the process of unification between the two states, relocating of military resources to the island from mainland China, and the disposition of political and diplomatic relationships between the United States and People’s Republic of China governments after Taiwan’s removal from the security strategy factor. The action of unification will be determined by analyzing the process itself, whether it is through peaceful negotiations or through coercion or by force. Removing and relocating military resources is determined by collecting information on PLAN deployments into deep water harbors in Taiwan, the deployment of approximately 1600 surface to surface missiles from mainland China to Taiwan, the PLA adjusting their missile doctrine, and the coercive influence into the open water of the Pacific. The final independent variable is determined by analyzing the political decisions and diplomatic conversation that will happen between the United States and Chinese government after the unification or withdrawal of U.S. support for Taiwan. Data collection for this research is accomplished by utilizing peer-reviewed journals, and the Department of Defense publications on national and maritime security strategies. The main advantage of utilizing these reading sources is because they are declassified and readily available to the general public and contain an abundant amount of information covering different aspects to this research. While none of the reviewed articles provided an answer to

the research question directly, they did provide insight behind why the United States continues to see Taiwan as a strategic importance in the region. Furthermore, the sources discuss the possible results if Taiwan was longer apart of the national strategy and the results of what could happen in the region based the actions committed by China. The disadvantage to this research was there were no modern historical events available for comparison and to provide insight into how the United States would adjust its position in the region and reassure partners that they will uphold their security commitments. Post-Cold War technological advances, improvements in international economics of major and non- major states actors, and changes in conflict from “major state actors v. another major state actor” to a major state actor v. non-state actors have established a data vacuum on what actions the United States and other major state actors would take on the topic. Conclusions The constant change in the international environment has forced the United States policymakers to change security strategies and readjust aged policies. The depletion of resources and challenges to political and diplomatic ties require the United States to analyze the impacts of incorporating Taiwan into its national security strategy. Continuing support and defense for Taiwan could lead the United States into open conflict with China. The decrease of support could affect the United States capability to remain dominant in the Pacific region, maintain partnership with regional partners, the ability to influence events in region, and limit implementing strategies designed to increase security of U.S. interests and regional allies. The sources identified for utilizing in this research provided the necessary research for analyzing the possible impacts and provided an accurate assessment that policymakers can utlize when

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determining the proper course of action for future implementations of Taiwan into the national security strategy. References Atanassova-Cornelis, Elena. 2013. “Shifting Domestic Politics and Security Policy in Japan and Taiwan: The Search for a Balancing Strategy between China and the US.” Asia- Pacific Review, 20, no. 1: 55-78. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13439006.2013.793066. Cabestan, Jean-Pierre. 2010. “The New Détente in the Taiwan Strait and Its Impact on Taiwan’s Security and Future.” China Perspectives, (SEP): 22-33. EBSCOhost. Chai, Winberg. 2007. “Missile Envy: New Tensions in China-U.S.-Taiwan Relations.” Asian Affairs, (MAR): 37-45. EBSCOhost. Chen, Dean. 2019. “The Trump Administration’s One-China Policy: Tilting Toward Taiwan in an Era of U.S.-PRC Rivalry?” Asian Politics and Policy 11, no. 2 (April): 250-278. EBSCOhost. Department of Defense. “Asia-Pacific Maritime Security Strategy.” DoD, 2015. https://dod.defense.gov/Portals/1/Documents/pubs/NDAA%20A-P_Maritime_ SecuritY_Strategy-08142015-1300-FINALFORMAT.PDF. Glasser, Charles. 2015. “A U.S.-China Grand Bargain.” International Security 39, no. 4 (Spring): 49-90. EBSCOhost.

Hasan, Monjur and He Jian. 2019. “Spratly Islands Dispute in the South China Sea: Potential Solutions.” Journal of East Asia & International Law 12, no. 1 (JAN): 145-168. EBSCOhost. Hickey, Dennis. 2013. “U.S. Policy Toward Taiwan: Time for Change?” Asian Affairs: An American Review 40 (OCT): 175-198. DOI: 10.1080/00927678.2013.847747. Holmes, James. 2014. “Strategic Features of the South China Sea.” Naval War College Review 67, no. 2 (Spring): 30-51. EBSCOHost. Kuo, Kuo-Wen and Hsiang-yi Yeh. 2015. “The U.S. – Japan Alliance and Asia Pacific Security: Implications for Japan-Taiwan Relations.” Malaysian Journal of History, Politics & Strategic Studies 42, no. 1 (July): 57-76. EBSCOhost. Lee, Sheryn and Benjamin Schreer. 2013. “The Taiwan Strait: Still Dangerous.” Survival 55, no. 3 (JUN/JUL): 55-62. EBSCOHost. Liao, Nien-chung and Dalton Lin. 2015. “Rebalancing Taiwan – US Relations.” Survival 57, no. 6 (DEC): 145-158. EBSCOHost. 11 Ong, Russel. 2010. “Taiwan’s Strategic Options and the US.” Asia-Pacific Review 17, no. 2 (NOV): 56-75. EBSCOhost. Raine, Sarah. 2011. “Beijing’s South China Sea Debate.” Survival 53, no. 5 (OCT/NOV): 69- 68. EBSCOHost. Rosen, Mark. 2017. “U.S. International Oceans Law and Policy Interests in the South China Sea Arbitration: Implications for the U.S. Administration in the South China Sea and Elsewhere.” Journal of Chinese Political Sciences/Association of Chinese Political Studies 2017, no 22: 251-267. DOI: 10.1007/s11366-017-9468-9. Scalapino, Robert. 2004. “Asia-Pacific Security--The Current Balance of Power.” Australian Journal of International Affairs 58, no.3 (SEP): 368-376. EBSCOhost. Sison, Maximo. 2018. “Universalizing the Law of the Sea in the South China Sea Dispute.” Ocean Development & International Law 49, no. 2 (April): 157-175. EBSCOhost. Song, Yann-huei. 2001. “The PRC’s Peacetime Military Activities in Taiwan’s EEZ: A Question of Legality.” International Journal of Marine & Coastal law 16, no. 4 (DEC): 625-643. DOI: 10.1023/A:1014271915722. United States Government. “National Security Strategy of the United States of America.” Defense Technical Information Center, 2017. https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u20 /1043812.pdf. Wang, Jianwei. 2010. “United States and Evolving Cross-Strait Relations.” Journal of Chinese Political Sciences/Association of Chinese Political Studies, no. 15: 351-369. DOI: 10.1007/s11366-010-9116-0. Wu, Chung-li and Alex Min-Wei Lin. 2019. “The Certainty of Uncertainty.” World Affairs (DEC): 350-369. EBSCOhost. Xinbo, Wu. 2002. “The Taiwan Issue and U.S. - Asia/Pacific Security Strategy.” American Foreign Policy Interests, no. 24 (JUNE): 231-235. DOI: 10.1080/10803920290032407.

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