In Problems 15-20, use the transition diagram
to find
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- Consider a communication channel where each substation transmits and receive data. The probability between the substations is shown in figure 3. 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.2 2 2 3 0.3 Figure 3 i. Draw a transition diagram. ii. Write down a transition matrix, P. iii. Name the type of matrix in Q3(b) P(X; =2 X,=1\X, =3) iv. P(X; =2 _X,=3{X, =2) V.arrow_forward5. consider the example below, where the states are Condition State and the transition matrix is 0 1 23 2 Πο Good as new Operable-minimum deterioration Operable-major deterioration Inoperable and replaced by a good-as-new machine we found that the steady-state probabilities are 2 13' T1= = P = 78314 00 1 0 7 13' HARTNO LELBLINO 1 16 1 1 1 1 16 8 8 0 2 2 = π2 2 13' I3 = 2 13 (a) Find the expected recurrence time for state 0 (i.e., the expected length of time a machine can be used before it must be replaced) by solving a linear system for Moo, M10, 20, and μ30. (b) Find the expected recurrence time for state O directly by the formula Moo 1 πο =arrow_forward64. Employee training. All welders in a factory begin as apprentices. Every year the performance of each appren- tice is reviewed. Past records indicate that after each review, 10% of the apprentices are promoted to profes- sional welder, 20% are terminated for unsatisfactory per- formance, and the remainder continue as apprentices. (A) Draw a transition diagram. (B) Write the transition matrix. (C) What is the probability that an apprentice is promoted to professional welder within 2 years? Within 4 years?arrow_forward
- c. The market share of two companies A and B is 30% and 70% in the current time period. The information obtained in terms of the customer loss and retention is given by the matrix P. [0.3 0.2] P = Lo.7 0.8] i.Determine the transition probability matrix in the 1st and 2nd month. ii.What is the steady state of the two companies?arrow_forwardlay. 1.8. Consider the following transition matrices. Identify the transient and recurrent states, and the irreducible closed sets in the Markov chains. Give reasons for your answers. (a) 1 2 3 4 5 12345 .4 .3 .3 00 0.5 0 .5 O 0 3 .5 0.5 0 4 0.5 0.5 0 5 0.3 0 .3 .4 1 2 3 (c) 1 2 3 4 5 00001 0.2 0.8 0 .1 .2 .4 .3 0 4 0.4 0.6 0 5.2 0 0 0.8 1 6 0.3 0.3 0.4 3 4 5 1 0 0 0 0 2/3 0 1/3 0 1/8 1/4 5/8 0 0 0 1/6 O 5/6 0 5 1/3 0 1/3 0 1/3 (e) 1 2 3 4 (b) 1 2 3 456 1 .1 0 0 .4 .5 O 2 .1 .2.2 0.5 0 3 0.1.3 0 0.6 4.10 0.90 0 5 0 0 TO 4 0 6 6 000 0.5.5 (d) 1 2 3 4 5 6 1.8 0 0.20 0 20.50 0.5 0 3 0 0 .3 .4 .1 .2 4.10 0.90 0 50.200.80 2 0arrow_forwardWhat is the solution to these two problems?arrow_forward
- 4. Suppose that the following data were obtained from the records of a certain two year college: Of those who were freshman (F) during a particular year, 80% become sopho- mores (S) during the next year and 20% dropped out. Of those who were sophomores during a particular year 90% graduated (G) by the next year and 10% dropped out. (a) Create a transition diagram that describes this scenario. (b) Create a transition matrix that describes this scenario. Is this scenario ergodic or absorbing? Explain. (c) Suppose that this year, there are an equal percentage of freshmen and sophomores. Use matrix multiplication to determine what percentage will have graduated in 5 years? What percentage will have dropped out? (d) Rewrite the matrix in standard form. (e) Find N, R and B. (f) Determine the probability that a student who begins as a freshman will drop out. (g) Determine the probability that a student who has made it to sophomore year will drop out. (h) Determine the probability that a…arrow_forward. Suppose that a Markov chain with 3 states and with transition matrix P is in state 2 onthe second observation. Which of the following expressions represents the probabilitythat it will be in state 3 on the third observation? (A) the (2, 3) entry of P 3 (B) the (2, 3) entry of P 2(C) the (3, 3) entry of P 2 (D) the (2, 2) entry of P 3(E) the (2, 3) entry of P (F) the (3, 2) entry of P(G) the (3, 2) entry of P 3 (H) the (3, 2) entry of P 2arrow_forwardQ2. Consider a company that is going to build a new manufacturing system and would like to determine the long-run (steady-state) mean hourly throughput of their system after it has been running long enough for workers to know their jobs and for mechanical difficulties to have been worked out. The system will operate continuously 24 hours a day for 7 days a week. Let N; be the number of parts manufactured in the ih hour. If the stochastic process N1, N2, .. has a steady-state distribution with corresponding random variable N, then we are interested in estimating the steady-state mean v = E(N).arrow_forward
- 3. Construct a model of population flows between cities, suburbs, and nonmetropolitan areas of the United States. Their respective populations in 2022 were 80 million, 175 million, and 52 million. The stochastic matrix giving the probabilities of the moves is (from) (to) city suburb nonmetro 0.96 0.01 0.015 city 0.03 0.98 0.005 suburb 0.01 0.01 0.98 nonmetro Predict the populations of city, suburban, and nonmetropolitan areas for 2023, 2024, and 2025. If a person was living in the city in 2022, what is the probability the person will be living in a nonmetropolian area in 2024?arrow_forwardExample 4: The number of defects on 20 items are given below Item No. 1 2 3 4 5 6 78 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 No. of defects 2 0 4 1 0 8 0 1 2 0 6 0 2 1 0 3 2 1 0 2 Devise a suitable control scheme for the future.arrow_forwardIn an office complex of 1100 employees, on any given day some are at work and the rest are absent. It is known that if an employee is at work today, there is an 80% chance that she will be at work tomorrow, and if the employee is absent today, there is a 51% chance that she will be absent tomorrow. Suppose that today there are 913 employees at work. .80 .49 ( a) Find the transition matrix for this scenario. .2 .51 (b) Predict the number that will be at work five days from now. 781.5 2.45 (c) Find the steady-state vector. .29arrow_forward
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