A gambling book recommends the following “winning strategy” for the game of roulette: Bet $1 on red. If red appears (which has probability 18 38 ) then take the $1 profit and quit. If red does not appear and you lose this bet (which has probability 20 38 of occurring), make additional $1 bets on red on each of the next two spins of the roulette wheel and then quit. Let X denote your winnings when you quit. a. Find P { X > 0 } . b. Are you convinced that the strategy is indeed a “winning” strategy? Explain your answer! c. Find E [ X ] .
A gambling book recommends the following “winning strategy” for the game of roulette: Bet $1 on red. If red appears (which has probability 18 38 ) then take the $1 profit and quit. If red does not appear and you lose this bet (which has probability 20 38 of occurring), make additional $1 bets on red on each of the next two spins of the roulette wheel and then quit. Let X denote your winnings when you quit. a. Find P { X > 0 } . b. Are you convinced that the strategy is indeed a “winning” strategy? Explain your answer! c. Find E [ X ] .
A gambling book recommends the following “winning strategy” for the game of roulette: Bet $1 on red. If red appears (which has probability
18
38
) then take the $1 profit and quit. If red does not appear and you lose this bet (which has probability
20
38
of occurring), make additional $1 bets on red on each of the next two spins of the roulette wheel and then quit. Let X denote your winnings when you quit.
a. Find
P
{
X
>
0
}
.
b. Are you convinced that the strategy is indeed a “winning” strategy? Explain your answer!
Q3 (8 points)
Q3. A survey classified a large number of adults according to whether they were diag-
nosed as needing eyeglasses to correct their reading vision and whether they use
eyeglasses when reading. The proportions falling into the four resulting categories
are given in the following table:
Use Eyeglasses for Reading
Needs glasses Yes
No
Yes
0.44
0.14
No
0.02
0.40
If a single adult is selected from the large group, find the probabilities of the events
defined below. The adult
(a) needs glasses.
(b) needs glasses but does not use them.
(c) uses glasses whether the glasses are needed or not.
4. (i) Let a discrete sample space be given by
N = {W1, W2, W3, W4},
and let a probability measure P on be given by
P(w1) = 0.2, P(w2) = 0.2, P(w3) = 0.5, P(wa) = 0.1.
Consider the random variables X1, X2 → R defined by
X₁(w1) = 1, X₁(w2) = 2,
X2(w1) = 2, X2 (w2) = 2,
Find the joint distribution of X1, X2.
(ii)
X1(W3) = 1, X₁(w4) = 1,
X2(W3) = 1, X2(w4) = 2.
[4 Marks]
Let Y, Z be random variables on a probability space (, F, P).
Let the random vector (Y, Z) take on values in the set [0, 1] x [0,2] and let the
joint distribution of Y, Z on [0, 1] x [0,2] be given by
1
dPy,z (y, z) ==(y²z+yz2) dy dz.
harks 12 Find the distribution Py of the random variable Y.
[8 Marks]
marks 11
3
3/4 x 1/4
1.
There are 4 balls in an urn, of which 3 balls are white and 1 ball is
black. You do the following:
draw a ball from the urn at random, note its colour, do not return the
ball to the urn;
draw a second ball, note its colour, return the ball to the urn;
finally draw a third ball and note its colour.
(i) Describe the corresponding discrete probability space
(Q, F, P).
[9 Marks]
(ii)
Consider the following event,
A: Among the first and the third balls, one ball is white, the other is black.
Write down A as a subset of the sample space and find its probability, P(A).
[2 Marks]
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