Practical Operations Management
Practical Operations Management
2nd Edition
ISBN: 9781939297136
Author: Simpson
Publisher: HERCHER PUBLISHING,INCORPORATED
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Chapter 4, Problem 3.2Q
Summary Introduction

Case summary/Introduction: TSC is a small business dedicated to sell Photostat copy of original to university students. It also offers a range of service like passport photos, self-service copy machines, packaging and shipping. A university instructor shares his original documents before the semester starts. A manager at TSC is forecasting demand of documents. He usually estimated two-third of student’s enrollment.

Characters in the case:TSC Company.

Adequate Information: A university instructor shares his original documents before the semester starts. A manager at TSC is forecasting demand of documents. He usually estimated two-third of student’s enrollment.

Interpretation:Comparison of methodology with rule of thumb.

Expert Solution & Answer
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Explanation of Solution

Rule of thumb means that a course pack production batch size should be two-thirds the size of the reported enrollment.

Comparison can be done by using Mean Square Error.

There are different courses for students in which a number of students are enrolled. However, numbers produced are the Photostat copies of original documents which are required by university students. In case, a student requires a copy of document, number 1 symbol is used for calculation and 0 is used for no requirement.

    Numbers producedNo. enrolledOptional? (1=Yes, 0=No)Forecast
    (Traditional)
    ErrorError^2Forecast
    (regression)
    ErrorError^2
    1012201146.67-45.672085.4489.62-11.39129.62
    952101140.00-45.002025.0082.63-12.38153.14
    1762000133.3342.671820.44160.13-15.87251.95
    81100066.6714.33205.4490.239.2385.14
    3638025.3310.67113.7846.8910.89118.57
    3840026.6711.33128.4448.2910.29105.82
    1954501300.00-105.0011025.00250.3955.383067.50
    1594001266.67-107.6711592.11215.4456.433184.91
    96120080.0016.00256.00104.218.2167.35
    4042028.0012.00144.0049.699.6993.80
    2443100206.6737.331393.78237.02-6.9848.76
    2382800186.6751.332635.11216.05-21.95481.93
    4650033.3312.67160.4455.289.2886.06
    5050033.3316.67277.7855.285.2827.85
    88100066.6721.33455.1190.232.234.96
    1903501233.33-43.331877.78180.49-9.5290.54
    2525016.678.3369.4437.8012.80163.89
    3003600240.0060.003600.00271.97-28.03785.85
    2513000200.0051.002601.00230.03-20.97439.87
    2312800186.6744.331965.44216.05-14.95223.59
    1012501166.67-65.674312.11110.599.5891.87
    912501166.67-75.675725.44110.5919.59383.57
    3740026.6710.33106.7848.2911.29127.40
    2012500166.6734.331178.78195.08-5.9235.08
    1802200146.6733.331111.11174.11-5.8934.73
    3335023.339.6793.4444.7911.79139.05
    3435023.3310.67113.7844.7910.79116.47
    771501100.00-23.00529.0040.69-36.321318.78
    2433000200.0043.001849.00230.03-12.97168.30
    62120180.00-18.00324.0019.72-42.291788.02
    49120180.00-31.00961.0019.72-29.29857.61
    4850033.3314.67215.1155.287.2852.95
    2020013.336.6744.4434.3114.31204.69
    MSE (Average)1848.35452.41
Conclusion

The value of MSE clearly shows that the regression forecast is better than the traditional forecast as traditionally, more than 33% of the copies were wasted and at present, error is less, which implies less wastage of copies.

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