Chapter 4, Problem 12P

You have won two tickets to a Lady Gaga concert in Atlantic City. The concert is three days from now and you have to make travel arrangements. Calculate the reliability of each of the following options:

1. a. Take the bus from campus to Washington, DC, and from DC to Atlantic City. The bus from campus to DC has a reliability of 90%, and from DC to Atlantic City has a reliability of 93%.
2. b. Fly directly from the local airport to Atlantic City. The chance that the flight will leave on time and thus arrive in time for the concert is 90%, but there is also a 50% chance that you will be able to beg or borrow enough money to pay for the flight.
3. c. Drive to Atlantic City. Your car has a 70% chance of making the entire trip without breaking down. Although not recommended, if your car breaks down, you could hitchhike with a 40% chance of getting to Atlantic City unscathed and in time for the concert.
4. d. Drive to Washington, DC, and take the bus to Atlantic City from there. Your car has a 79% chance of making it to DC. If it doesn’t make it to DC, you can hitchhike there with a 40% chance of success.