Operations and Supply Chain Management 9th edition
9th Edition
ISBN: 9781119320975
Author: Roberta S. Russell, Bernard W. Taylor III
Publisher: WILEY
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Chapter 17, Problem 15Q
How does theory of constraints differ from traditional
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Scenario
You have been given a task to create a demand forecast for the second year of sales of a premium outdoor grill.
Accurate forecasts are important for many reasons, including for the company to ensure they have the materials
they need to create the products required in a certain period of time. Your objective is to minimize the forecast
error, which will be measured using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) with a goal of being below 25%.
You have historical monthly sales data for the past year and access to software that provides forecasts based on
five different forecasting techniques (Naïve, 3-Month Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing for .2, Exponential
Smooth for .5, and Seasonal) to help determine the best forecast for that particular month. Based on the given
data, you will identify trends and patterns to create a more accurate forecast.
Approach
Consider the previous month's forecast to identify which technique is most effective. Use that to forecast the next…
Approach
Consider the previous month's forecast to identify which technique is most effective. Use that to forecast the next
month.
Remember to select the forecasting technique that produces the forecast error nearest to zero. For example:
a. Naïve Forecast is 230 and the Forecast Error is -15.
b. 3-Month Moving Forecast is 290 and the Forecast Error is -75.
c. Exponential Smoothing Forecast for .2 is 308 and the Forecast Error is -93.
d. Exponential Smoothing Forecast for .5 is 279 and the Forecast Error is -64.
e. Seasonal Forecast is 297 and the Forecast Error is -82.
The forecast for the next month would be 230 as the Naïve Forecast had the Forecast Error closest to zero with a
-15. This forecasting technique was the best performing technique for that month. You do not need to do any
external analysis-the forecast error for each strategy is already calculated for you in the tables below.
Naïve
Month Period
Actual
Demand
Naïve Forecast
Error
3-
Month
Moving
Forecast
3-
Month
Moving…
Scenario
You have been given a task to create a demand forecast for the second year of sales of a premium outdoor grill.
Accurate forecasts are important for many reasons, including for the company to ensure they have the materials
they need to create the products required in a certain period of time. Your objective is to minimize the forecast
error, which will be measured using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) with a goal of being below 25%.
You have historical monthly sales data for the past year and access to software that provides forecasts based on
five different forecasting techniques (Naïve, 3-Month Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing for .2, Exponential
Smooth for .5, and Seasonal) to help determine the best forecast for that particular month. Based on the given
data, you will identify trends and patterns to create a more accurate forecast.
Approach
Consider the previous month's forecast to identify which technique is most effective. Use that to forecast the next…
Chapter 17 Solutions
Operations and Supply Chain Management 9th edition
Ch. 17 - Scheduling Major League Baseball Umpires It used...Ch. 17 - Scheduling Major League Baseball Umpires It used...Ch. 17 - Solving Tough Scheduling Problems in Healthcare...Ch. 17 - Solving Tough Scheduling Problems in Healthcare...Ch. 17 - Analytics at Airbnb Airbnb is a global community...Ch. 17 - Analytics at Airbnb Airbnb is a global community...Ch. 17 - Analytics at Airbnb Airbnb is a global community...Ch. 17 - Analytics at Airbnb Airbnb is a global community...Ch. 17 - How do scheduling activities differ for projects,...Ch. 17 - Why is scheduling a job shop so difficult?
Ch. 17 - What three functions are typically performed by a...Ch. 17 - Prob. 4QCh. 17 - How can the success of a scheduling system be...Ch. 17 - Describe the process of loading and load leveling....Ch. 17 - What is the purpose of dispatch lists? How are...Ch. 17 - When should the following sequencing rules be...Ch. 17 - Give examples of sequencing rules you use to...Ch. 17 - What information is provided by the critical ratio...Ch. 17 - How are work packages, hot lists, and exception...Ch. 17 - What are Gantt charts, and why are they used so...Ch. 17 - Explain the concept behind input/output control....Ch. 17 - Explain the difference between infinite and finite...Ch. 17 - How does theory of constraints differ from...Ch. 17 - Explain the drum-buffer-rope concept.Ch. 17 - Discuss the similarities and differences between...Ch. 17 - What are some typical issues involved in employee...Ch. 17 - What quantitative techniques are available to help...Ch. 17 - At Valley Hospital, nurses beginning a new shift...Ch. 17 - Valley Hospital (from Problem 17.1) wants to focus...Ch. 17 - Prob. 3PCh. 17 - Sunshine House received a contract this year as a...Ch. 17 - Karina Nieto works for New Products Inc., and one...Ch. 17 - Decenture has four new IT hires available for...Ch. 17 - Blue Jeans Modeling Agency specializes in...Ch. 17 - Evan Schwartz has six jobs wailing to be processed...Ch. 17 - College students always have a lot of work to do,...Ch. 17 - Today is day 4 of the planning cycle. Sequence the...Ch. 17 - Alices Alterations has eight jobs to be completed...Ch. 17 - Jobs A. B, C, and D must be processed through the...Ch. 17 - Sequence the following jobs by (a) SPT, (b) DDATE,...Ch. 17 - Prob. 14PCh. 17 - Claims received by Healthwise Insurance Company...Ch. 17 - Jobs processed through Percys machine shop pass...Ch. 17 - Prob. 17PCh. 17 - Sassy U makes fashion jeans out of a variety of...Ch. 17 - Restore is a small repair shop that makes...Ch. 17 - Precision Painters, Inc., has five house painting...Ch. 17 - Tracy has six chapters on her desk that must be...Ch. 17 - Updike Upholstery cuts and sews fabric for custom...Ch. 17 - The following data have been compiled for an...Ch. 17 - The input/output report for Work Center 6 is as...Ch. 17 - Kim Johnson, R.N., the charge nurse of the...Ch. 17 - Rosemary Hanes needs help in scheduling volunteers...Ch. 17 - Schedule the wail staff at Vincents Restaurant...Ch. 17 - Mr. Baskins, manager of Tom and Jerrys Ice Cream...
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