Operations and Supply Chain Management, 9th Edition WileyPLUS Registration Card + Loose-leaf Print Companion
9th Edition
ISBN: 9781119371618
Author: Roberta S. Russell
Publisher: Wiley (WileyPLUS Products)
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Textbook Question
Chapter 12, Problem 20Q
Selecting from MAD, MAPD, MSE, E, and
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Selecting from MAD, MAPD, MSE, E, and , which measure of forecast accuracy do you consider superior? Why?
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The manager of a travel agency asked you to come up with a forecasting technique that will best fit to the actual demand for packaged tours. You have observed and recorded the actual demand for the last 10 periods. You also identified two possible techniques for consideration: 2-month moving averages (F1), and exponential smoothing (F2) with a smoothing constant of 0.25. Using Cumulative Forecasting Error (CFE) and Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) as your performance measures you will determine the technique that will best fit to the actual demand data provided in the following table.STEP 1: Given start forecast values in period 3, compute forecast values from period 4 to 10. You are asked to provide the forecast values for period 6 and 10 for both techniques.
2-Month MA
Exponential
Period
Demand
F1
F2
1
115
--
--
2
176
--
--
3
97
146
129
4
141
5
98
6
132
7
114
8
129
9
107…
Chapter 12 Solutions
Operations and Supply Chain Management, 9th Edition WileyPLUS Registration Card + Loose-leaf Print Companion
Ch. 12 - List some of the operations and functions in a...Ch. 12 - What is the difference between quantitative...Ch. 12 - Describe the difference between short- and...Ch. 12 - Prob. 4QCh. 12 - Why is accurate forecasting so important to...Ch. 12 - Discuss the relationship between forecasting and...Ch. 12 - Prob. 7QCh. 12 - Describe the Delphi method for forecasting.Ch. 12 - What is the difference between a trend and a cycle...Ch. 12 - How is the moving average method similar to...
Ch. 12 - In the chapter examples for time series methods,...Ch. 12 - What effect on the exponential smoothing model...Ch. 12 - How does adjusted exponential smoothing differ...Ch. 12 - What determines the choice of the smoothing...Ch. 12 - How does the linear trend line forecasting model...Ch. 12 - Of the time series models presented in this...Ch. 12 - What advantages does adjusted exponential...Ch. 12 - Describe how a forecast is monitored to detect...Ch. 12 - Explain the relationship between the use of a...Ch. 12 - Selecting from MAD, MAPD, MSE, E, and E, which...Ch. 12 - What is the difference between linear and multiple...Ch. 12 - Define the different components (y, x, a, and b)...Ch. 12 - A company that produces video equipment, including...Ch. 12 - The Hartley-Davis motorcycle dealer in the...Ch. 12 - The manager of the I-85 Carpet Outlet needs to be...Ch. 12 - The LawnPlus Fertilizer Company distributes...Ch. 12 - Graph the demand data in Problem 12.3. Can you...Ch. 12 - The chairperson of the department of management at...Ch. 12 - The manager of the Excom Service Station wants to...Ch. 12 - The Intrepid mutual fund of growth stocks has had...Ch. 12 - The Oceanside Hotel is adjacent to City Coliseum,...Ch. 12 - Mary Hernandez has invested in a stock mutual fund...Ch. 12 - Globetron manufactures components for use in small...Ch. 12 - The Bee Line Caf is well known for its popular...Ch. 12 - For the demand data in Problem 12.11, develop a...Ch. 12 - Develop a seasonally adjusted forecast for the...Ch. 12 - Backstreets Pizza delivery service has randomly...Ch. 12 - The Willow River Mining Company mines and ships...Ch. 12 - The Great Northwest Outdoor Company is a catalog...Ch. 12 - Townside Food Vending operates vending machines in...Ch. 12 - The town aquatic center has an indoor pool that...Ch. 12 - Develop an adjusted exponential smoothing forecast...Ch. 12 - During the past five months the emergency room at...Ch. 12 - At its craft store and through its website, the...Ch. 12 - A group of business students at Tech organized a...Ch. 12 - Temco Industries has developed a forecasting model...Ch. 12 - Monitor the forecast in Problem 12.23 for bias...Ch. 12 - Develop a statistical control chart for the...Ch. 12 - Monitor the adjusted exponential smoothing...Ch. 12 - Develop an exponential smoothing forecast with =...
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- The demand (in number of units) for Apple iPad over the past 6 months at BestBuy is summarized below. Month Nov 2019 Dec 2019 Demand 45 48 Jan 2020 50 Feb 2020 Mar 2020 Apr 2020 42 46 51 Consider the following three forecasting methods: • Two-month weighted moving average, with weights 6 and 2 (more weight assigned to more recent data) Exponential smoothing with a = 0.7. Let the initial forecast for Nov 2019 be 46. • A trend line projection in the form ŷ = a+bx . To simplify computations, transform the value of x (time) to simpler numbers – designate Nov 2019 as x=1, Dec 2019 as x= 2, etc. (a ) For each of the above methods, forecast the demand of Apple iPad for May 2020. (b) Consider only the two-month weighted moving average method, compute the MAD measure and the MSE measure using the data from Jan 2020. (c) Use the trend line to forecast the demand of Apple iPad for Dec 2020. Give your opinion regarding the reliability of the forecast.arrow_forward376.98 says its wrongarrow_forwardPlease solve it within 30 minutes i really need helparrow_forward
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