Operations Management
13th Edition
ISBN: 9781259667473
Author: William J Stevenson
Publisher: McGraw-Hill Education
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Textbook Question
Chapter 11, Problem 3P
Determine the total cost for this plan given the following
Use steady regular output of 400 units per month, use overtime as needed for up to 40 units per month, and use subcontracting to make up any needed output to match the forecast. Unit costs are:
Regular output = $25
Overtime = $40
Subcontract = $60
Average Balance Inventory = $15
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Scenario
You have been given a task to create a demand forecast for the second year of sales of a premium outdoor grill.
Accurate forecasts are important for many reasons, including for the company to ensure they have the materials
they need to create the products required in a certain period of time. Your objective is to minimize the forecast
error, which will be measured using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) with a goal of being below 25%.
You have historical monthly sales data for the past year and access to software that provides forecasts based on
five different forecasting techniques (Naïve, 3-Month Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing for .2, Exponential
Smooth for .5, and Seasonal) to help determine the best forecast for that particular month. Based on the given
data, you will identify trends and patterns to create a more accurate forecast.
Approach
Consider the previous month's forecast to identify which technique is most effective. Use that to forecast the next…
Approach
Consider the previous month's forecast to identify which technique is most effective. Use that to forecast the next
month.
Remember to select the forecasting technique that produces the forecast error nearest to zero. For example:
a. Naïve Forecast is 230 and the Forecast Error is -15.
b. 3-Month Moving Forecast is 290 and the Forecast Error is -75.
c. Exponential Smoothing Forecast for .2 is 308 and the Forecast Error is -93.
d. Exponential Smoothing Forecast for .5 is 279 and the Forecast Error is -64.
e. Seasonal Forecast is 297 and the Forecast Error is -82.
The forecast for the next month would be 230 as the Naïve Forecast had the Forecast Error closest to zero with a
-15. This forecasting technique was the best performing technique for that month. You do not need to do any
external analysis-the forecast error for each strategy is already calculated for you in the tables below.
Naïve
Month Period
Actual
Demand
Naïve Forecast
Error
3-
Month
Moving
Forecast
3-
Month
Moving…
Chapter 11 Solutions
Operations Management
Ch. 11 - What three levels of planning involve operations...Ch. 11 - What are the three phases of intermediate...Ch. 11 - Prob. 3DRQCh. 11 - Why is there a need for aggregate planning?Ch. 11 - What are the most common decision variables for...Ch. 11 - Prob. 6DRQCh. 11 - Briefly discuss the advantages and disadvantages...Ch. 11 - What are the primary advantages and limitations of...Ch. 11 - Briefly describe the planning techniques listed as...Ch. 11 - What are the inputs to master scheduling? What are...
Ch. 11 - Prob. 11DRQCh. 11 - What general trade-offs are involved in master...Ch. 11 - Who needs to interface with the master schedule...Ch. 11 - How has technology had an impact on master...Ch. 11 - Service operations often face more difficulty in...Ch. 11 - Name several behaviors related to aggregate...Ch. 11 - Compute the total cost for each aggregate plan...Ch. 11 - A manager would like to know the total cost of a...Ch. 11 - Determine the total cost for this plan given the...Ch. 11 - a. Given the following forecast and steady regular...Ch. 11 - Manager T. C. Downs of Plum Engines, a producer of...Ch. 11 - Manager Chris Channing of Fabric Mills, Inc., has...Ch. 11 - SummerFun. Inc., produces a variety of recreation...Ch. 11 - Nowjuice, Inc., produces Shakewell fruit juice. A...Ch. 11 - Wormwood, Ltd., produces a variety of furniture...Ch. 11 - Refer to Solved Problem 1. Prepare two additional...Ch. 11 - Refer to Solved Problem 1. Suppose another option...Ch. 11 - Prob. 12PCh. 11 - Prob. 13PCh. 11 - Prob. 14PCh. 11 - Prob. 15PCh. 11 - Refer to Example 3. Suppose that regular-time...Ch. 11 - Prob. 17PCh. 11 - Prob. 18PCh. 11 - Prepare a master production schedule for...Ch. 11 - Update the master schedule shown in Figure 11.11...Ch. 11 - Prepare a master schedule like that shown in...Ch. 11 - Determine the available-to-promise (ATP)...Ch. 11 - Prepare a schedule like that shown in Figure 11.12...Ch. 11 - The objective is to choose the plan that has the...Ch. 11 - Prob. 2CQ
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