Operations Management
13th Edition
ISBN: 9781259667473
Author: William J Stevenson
Publisher: McGraw-Hill Education
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Chapter 11, Problem 2P
A manager would like to know the total cost of a chase strategy that matches the
Regular production= $35
Overtime = $70
Subcontracting = $80
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Scenario
You have been given a task to create a demand forecast for the second year of sales of a premium outdoor grill.
Accurate forecasts are important for many reasons, including for the company to ensure they have the materials
they need to create the products required in a certain period of time. Your objective is to minimize the forecast
error, which will be measured using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) with a goal of being below 25%.
You have historical monthly sales data for the past year and access to software that provides forecasts based on
five different forecasting techniques (Naïve, 3-Month Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing for .2, Exponential
Smooth for .5, and Seasonal) to help determine the best forecast for that particular month. Based on the given
data, you will identify trends and patterns to create a more accurate forecast.
Approach
Consider the previous month's forecast to identify which technique is most effective. Use that to forecast the next…
Chapter 11 Solutions
Operations Management
Ch. 11 - What three levels of planning involve operations...Ch. 11 - What are the three phases of intermediate...Ch. 11 - Prob. 3DRQCh. 11 - Why is there a need for aggregate planning?Ch. 11 - What are the most common decision variables for...Ch. 11 - Prob. 6DRQCh. 11 - Briefly discuss the advantages and disadvantages...Ch. 11 - What are the primary advantages and limitations of...Ch. 11 - Briefly describe the planning techniques listed as...Ch. 11 - What are the inputs to master scheduling? What are...
Ch. 11 - Prob. 11DRQCh. 11 - What general trade-offs are involved in master...Ch. 11 - Who needs to interface with the master schedule...Ch. 11 - How has technology had an impact on master...Ch. 11 - Service operations often face more difficulty in...Ch. 11 - Name several behaviors related to aggregate...Ch. 11 - Compute the total cost for each aggregate plan...Ch. 11 - A manager would like to know the total cost of a...Ch. 11 - Determine the total cost for this plan given the...Ch. 11 - a. Given the following forecast and steady regular...Ch. 11 - Manager T. C. Downs of Plum Engines, a producer of...Ch. 11 - Manager Chris Channing of Fabric Mills, Inc., has...Ch. 11 - SummerFun. Inc., produces a variety of recreation...Ch. 11 - Nowjuice, Inc., produces Shakewell fruit juice. A...Ch. 11 - Wormwood, Ltd., produces a variety of furniture...Ch. 11 - Refer to Solved Problem 1. Prepare two additional...Ch. 11 - Refer to Solved Problem 1. Suppose another option...Ch. 11 - Prob. 12PCh. 11 - Prob. 13PCh. 11 - Prob. 14PCh. 11 - Prob. 15PCh. 11 - Refer to Example 3. Suppose that regular-time...Ch. 11 - Prob. 17PCh. 11 - Prob. 18PCh. 11 - Prepare a master production schedule for...Ch. 11 - Update the master schedule shown in Figure 11.11...Ch. 11 - Prepare a master schedule like that shown in...Ch. 11 - Determine the available-to-promise (ATP)...Ch. 11 - Prepare a schedule like that shown in Figure 11.12...Ch. 11 - The objective is to choose the plan that has the...Ch. 11 - Prob. 2CQ
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- Approach Consider the previous month's forecast to identify which technique is most effective. Use that to forecast the next month. Remember to select the forecasting technique that produces the forecast error nearest to zero. For example: a. Naïve Forecast is 230 and the Forecast Error is -15. b. 3-Month Moving Forecast is 290 and the Forecast Error is -75. c. Exponential Smoothing Forecast for .2 is 308 and the Forecast Error is -93. d. Exponential Smoothing Forecast for .5 is 279 and the Forecast Error is -64. e. Seasonal Forecast is 297 and the Forecast Error is -82. The forecast for the next month would be 230 as the Naïve Forecast had the Forecast Error closest to zero with a -15. This forecasting technique was the best performing technique for that month. You do not need to do any external analysis-the forecast error for each strategy is already calculated for you in the tables below. Naïve Month Period Actual Demand Naïve Forecast Error 3- Month Moving Forecast 3- Month Moving…arrow_forwardScenario You have been given a task to create a demand forecast for the second year of sales of a premium outdoor grill. Accurate forecasts are important for many reasons, including for the company to ensure they have the materials they need to create the products required in a certain period of time. Your objective is to minimize the forecast error, which will be measured using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) with a goal of being below 25%. You have historical monthly sales data for the past year and access to software that provides forecasts based on five different forecasting techniques (Naïve, 3-Month Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing for .2, Exponential Smooth for .5, and Seasonal) to help determine the best forecast for that particular month. Based on the given data, you will identify trends and patterns to create a more accurate forecast. Approach Consider the previous month's forecast to identify which technique is most effective. Use that to forecast the next…arrow_forwardUse the internet to obtain crash safety ratings for passenger vehicles. Then, answer thesequestions:a. Which vehicles received the highest ratings? The lowest ratings?b. How important are crash-safety ratings to new car buyers? Does the degree of importancedepend on the circumstances of the buyer?c. Which types of buyers would you expect to be the most concerned with crash-safety ratings?d. Are there other features of a new car that might sway a buyer from focusing solely on crashsafety? If so, what might they be?arrow_forward
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- I need to forecast using a 3-Period-Moving-Average-Monthly forecasting model which I did but then I need to use my forecast numbers to generate a Master Production Schedule (MPS) I have to Start with actual sales (my own test data numbers) for August-2022 Oct-2022 i need to create MPS to supply demand starting November-2022 April 2023 I just added numbers without applying formulas to the mps on the right side of the spreadsheet because I do not know how to do it. The second image is the example of what it should look like. Thank You.arrow_forwardSolve the following Question 1. How do volume and variety affect the process selection and layout types? Discuss 2. How is the human resource aspect important to operation function? Discuss 3. Discuss the supply network design and its impact on the overall performance of the organization.arrow_forwardHelp with question?arrow_forward
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