the probability that she was asleep? • If the cat requests a game of fetch when petted, what is the probability that she was not asleep?
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Your probability professor has a tabby cat who sleeps 34% of the time and seems to respond to stimuli more or less randomly. If a human pets her when she’s awake, she will request more petting 8% of the time, food 38% of the time, and a game of fetch the rest of the time. If a human pets her when she’s asleep, she will request more petting 33% of the time, food 41% of the time, and a game of fetch the rest of the time. (You can assume that the humans don’t pet her disproportionally often when she’s awake.) • If the cat requests food when petted, what is the probability that she was asleep? • If the cat requests a game of fetch when petted, what is the probability that she was not asleep?
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- Suppose I flip a fair coin n = 20 times. A psychic tries to predict the outcome before each flip. Three researchers have different ideas about the psychic's ability. There is Sydney, the Skeptic (S), who thinks the psychic's success rate is between 49% and 51%. There is Morgan, the Mark, M, who thinks that the psychic's success rate is 80%. And there is Carter, the Cynic (C), who thinks the psychic's success rate is 10%. Specifically: S+ 0 ~ U(.49, .51) M + 0 = .80 C0 = .10 %3D In all cases, assume the number of successful predictions follows a binomial distribution with success rate 0. Usek for the number of successes and n for the number of trials. Given all that: Determine the formula for the Bayes factor (a.k.a., likelihood ratio) supporting Carter over Morgan. Call that Bayes factor Bc:M Determine the formula for the Bayes factor (a.k.a., likelihood ratio) supporting Morgan over Sydney. Call that Bayes factor BM:S Determine the formula for the Bayes factor (a.k.a., likelihood…Your car is making a funny noise. You believe that the problem is either with the wheel or the axle, and you believe the probability is 0.3 that the wheel needs to be replaced, and 0.7 that the axle needs to be replaced. You need to decide whether to replace the wheel or the axle first. The cost of each alternative is given in the following table (if you decided to replace the wrong part first, you have to replace both of them). The Wheel is broken p = 0.3 The Axle is broken p = 0.7 Replace Wheel First Replace Axle First 600 1500 1500 900 a) Find the EV of each decision alternative. Which part should you replace first? b) What is the EVPI?Wendy needs to get to an airport from a hotel. There is 0.33 chance that she calls a cab, there is 0.11 chance that she gets a Uber. If she cannot get a cab or Uber, she will take a shuttle. If she calls a cab, there is 0.29 chance that she could miss the flight. If she gets a Uber, the chance of missing flight is 0.22. If she takes the shuttle, the chance is 0.28. What is the probability that she misses the flight? (Round your answer to three decimal places)
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