son by allowing him to select one of two boxes. contains three stones. In one box two of the stones are real diamonds, and the other is a worthless imitation; and in the other box, one is a real diamond, and the other two are worthless imitations. If the son were to choose randomly between the two boxes, his chance of getting two real diamonds is 0.5. Mr. Stoneguy then suggested that he will allow his son to draw one stone from one of the boxes and to examine it to see if it is a real diamond and to decide which box to select. The son agreed and decided to take the box that the stone he tested came from if the tested stone is real and to take the other box otherwise. Will this strategy increase the son's chance of getting two real diamonds? Each box There are 2 stages in this experiment: Stage 1- selection of box at random Stage 2 - selection of stone at random from the selected box in Stage 1 Let A = event of selecting the box that contains 2 real diamonds and 1 fake B = event of selecting a real diamond C = event of getting 2 real diamonds using the son's strategy = (AB) U (AºB°) %3D Given: P(A) = ½ since selection is done at random P(B|A) = 2/3 P(BJA) = 1/3 Find P(C).

MATLAB: An Introduction with Applications
6th Edition
ISBN:9781119256830
Author:Amos Gilat
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Chapter1: Starting With Matlab
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Example: Mr. Stoneguy, a wealthy diamond dealer, decides to reward his
son by allowing him to select one of two boxes. Each box
contains three stones. In one box two of the stones are real
diamonds, and the other is a worthless imitation; and in the other
box, one is a real diamond, and the other two are worthless
imitations. If the son were to choose randomly between the two
boxes, his chance of getting two real diamonds is 0.5. Mr.
Stoneguy then suggested that he will allow his son to draw one
stone from one of the boxes and to examine it to see if it is a
real diamond and to decide which box to select. The son agreed
and decided to take the box that the stone he tested came from if
the tested stone is real and to take the other box otherwise. Will
this strategy increase the son's chance of getting two real
diamonds?
There are 2 stages in this experiment:
Stage 1- selection of box at random
Stage 2 - selection of stone at random from the selected box
in Stage 1
Let A = event of selecting the box that contains 2 real diamonds
and 1 fake
B = event of selecting a real diamond
C = event of getting 2 real diamonds using the son's strategy
= (AB) U (AºB°)
P(A) = ¼ since selection is done at random
P(B|A) = 2/3
P(BJA) = 1/3
Given:
Find P(C).
Transcribed Image Text:Example: Mr. Stoneguy, a wealthy diamond dealer, decides to reward his son by allowing him to select one of two boxes. Each box contains three stones. In one box two of the stones are real diamonds, and the other is a worthless imitation; and in the other box, one is a real diamond, and the other two are worthless imitations. If the son were to choose randomly between the two boxes, his chance of getting two real diamonds is 0.5. Mr. Stoneguy then suggested that he will allow his son to draw one stone from one of the boxes and to examine it to see if it is a real diamond and to decide which box to select. The son agreed and decided to take the box that the stone he tested came from if the tested stone is real and to take the other box otherwise. Will this strategy increase the son's chance of getting two real diamonds? There are 2 stages in this experiment: Stage 1- selection of box at random Stage 2 - selection of stone at random from the selected box in Stage 1 Let A = event of selecting the box that contains 2 real diamonds and 1 fake B = event of selecting a real diamond C = event of getting 2 real diamonds using the son's strategy = (AB) U (AºB°) P(A) = ¼ since selection is done at random P(B|A) = 2/3 P(BJA) = 1/3 Given: Find P(C).
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