Ronald Lau, chief engineer at South Dakota Electronics, has to decide whether tobuild a new state-of-the-art processing facility. If the new facility works, thecompany could realize a profit of $200,000. If it fails, South Dakota Electronics couldlose $180,000. At this time, Lau estimates a 60% chance that the new process willfail.The other option is to build a pilot plant and then decide whether to build acomplete facility. The pilot plant would cost $10,000 to build. Lau estimates a 50 -50 chance that the pilot plant will work. If the pilot plant works, there is a 90%probability that the complete plant, if it is built, will also work. If the pilot plant doesnot work, there is only a 20% chance that the complete project (if it is constructed)will work. Lau faces a dilemma. Should he build the plant? Should he build the pilotproject and then make a decision? Help Lau by analyzing this problem. Px

Decision analysis is a part of business operations where the organization has to take a decision…

Answered: Ronald Lau, chief engineer at South…

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter2: Introduction To Spreadsheet Modeling

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 20P: Julie James is opening a lemonade stand. She believes the fixed cost per week of running the stand...

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Howard Weiss, Inc., is considering building a sensitive new radiation scanning device. His managers believe that there is a probability of 0.40 that the ATR Co. will come out with a competitive product. If Weiss adds an assembly line for the product and ATR Co. does not follow with a competitive product, Weiss's expected profit is $40,000; if Weiss adds an assembly line and ATR follows suit, Weiss still expects $20,000 profit. If Weiss adds a new plant addition and ATR does not produce a competitive product, Weiss expects a profit of $600,000; if ATR does compete for this market, Weiss expects a loss of $100,000. a) Expected value for the Add Assembly Line option = $ (enter your answer as a whole number).
10. Dantey Development Corporation is considering bidding on a contract for a new office building complex. Dantey's Company must decide whether to bid on the contract or not. The cost of preparing the bid is $200,000. Based on past experience the company has a 0.80 probability of winning the contract if it submits a bid. If the company wins the bid, it will have to pay $2,000,000 to become a partner in the project. Dantey Company will consider doing a market research study to forecast demand for the office units prior to beginning construction if the company wins the contract. The cost of this study is $150,000. The possible outcomes of the market research study can either be high or moderate forecasts. The likelihood of high forecast is 0.60. Dantey CEO must decide either to build the office complex or sell the rights in the project to another developer upon wining the contract whether the market research study was conducted or not. The decision to build the complex will result in an…
Build New plant option=
1. A clothing store is opening a second location and wants to decide whether to open in San Francisco or New York. Opening a location in either city will involve different capital expenditures and demonstrate different rates of success. Below are the relevant data: DECISION PROBABILITY OF PROBABILITY OF SUCCESS FAILURE San Francisco 40% 60% New York 30% 70% PAYOFF (SUCCESS) 15,000,000 30,000,000 PAYOFF (FAILURE) 4,000,000 10,000,000 DECISION San Francisco New York The costs associated with opening each location are as follows: in San Francisco, the store will need to invest $2 million, while a New York location will require an investment of $5 million. The expected payoff amounts represent the potential revenue if the store succeeds, or the potential loss if the store fails. REQUIRED: a. Draw the decision tree for the above problem; b. Compute for the Expected Value for each decision; c. Compute for the net gain / loss of each decision
A decision maker faces with the following four alternatives and four states of nature in the profit payoff table below: B. Cal D. Calculate the expected value of perfect to the nearest integer: 1, A2, A3, or A4. 3 States of nature S3 8 0.1
A survey was conducted to 12 first time voters on their preferred candidate. The results are: BBM, BBM, LR, IM, PL, PL, IM, IM, BBM, BBM, LR, LR. Which statement is true? A The Borda score of PL is two points. B BBM wins by plurality method. The Condorcet winner is IM. D The modes are LR and IM.
You are deciding between two alternatives to build a facility between two different locations based on the estimated profitability it will generate the first year minus the investment cost. Building in location A will cost $1.1M and there is a 30% chance the workforce will generate $1M in profit, 50% chance it will generate $1.2M in profit and 20% chance it will generate $1.4M in profit. Location B will cost $1.7M and there is a 35% chance the workforce will generate $1.3M in profit, a 40% chance it will generate $1.7M in profit and a 25% it will generate $1.9M in profit. What decision will you recommend based on a decision tree analysis of these alternatives?
There are two outcomes: a good market and a bad market. , The decision table is presented below. There are four alternatives: do nothing, build a small plant, build a medium-size plant, and build a large plant. PAYOFFS Outcomes Alternatives Good market Bad market Do nothing $0 $0 Small Plant $30,000 ($10,000) Medium Plant $100,000 ($15,000) Large Plant $200,000 ($30,000) So you are to workout the Maximax, the Maximin, the Equally likely the Hurwicz based on a .11 probability and the regret using minimax. In words give the answers to these questions: What are your answers under: Answers Best payoff option for maximax is Common Stock Best payoff option for maximin is doing nothing Best payoff option for equally likely is Common Stock Best payoff option for Hurwicz is doing nothing Put a Bold Box around the word Outcomes Keep the Bad Market amounts in Red Ink Make the type style Ariel and Size 12 in Black
Edwards Machine Tools needs to purchase a new machine. The basic model is slower but costs less, while the advanced model is faster but costs more. Profitability will depend on future demand. The following table presents an estimate of profits over the next three years. Decision Low Medium High Basic Model $75,000 $95,000 $120,000 Advanced Model $60,000 $150,000 $260,000 Given the uncertainty associated with the demand volume and no other information to work with, how would you make a decision? Use the Excel template Decision Analysis and explain your reasoning.
ABC company plans to produce a new line of laptop computers. Management wants to decide either to purchase keyboard for the new computers from an outside supplier or to manufacture them in the factory. If they buy from the supplier each keyboard will cost 100$. However, if they set up the assembly process required within the company it will cost an initial investment of $100,000. After the set up company can produce each keyboard in the factory for $75. Calculate the break-even point. Comment which option is better below and above the break-even point.
I need decision tree for Case II

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