Use the following payoff table to complete parts (a) through (j). The probability of event 1 is 0.30, the probability of event 2 is 0.50, and the probability of event 3 is 0.20. d. Compute the expected opportunity loss (EOL) for each action. EOL(A) = $ EOL(B) = $ EOL(C) = $ (Simplify your answers.) ACTION 500 EVENT Buy 100, A (S) Buy 200, B ($) Buy 500, C (S) Demand 100, 1 300 - 300 Demand 200, 2 1,000 Demand 500, 3 400 500 500 1,000 2,500 e. Explain the meaning of the expected value of perfect information (EVPI) in this problem. Choose the correct answer below. O A. The EVPI value provides a guideline for an upper bound on how much to consider paying for better information. OB. The EVPI is the expected payoff that the company will receive with perfect information. OC. The EVPI is the value that the company should expect to pay for perfect information.
Use the following payoff table to complete parts (a) through (j). The probability of event 1 is 0.30, the probability of event 2 is 0.50, and the probability of event 3 is 0.20. d. Compute the expected opportunity loss (EOL) for each action. EOL(A) = $ EOL(B) = $ EOL(C) = $ (Simplify your answers.) ACTION 500 EVENT Buy 100, A (S) Buy 200, B ($) Buy 500, C (S) Demand 100, 1 300 - 300 Demand 200, 2 1,000 Demand 500, 3 400 500 500 1,000 2,500 e. Explain the meaning of the expected value of perfect information (EVPI) in this problem. Choose the correct answer below. O A. The EVPI value provides a guideline for an upper bound on how much to consider paying for better information. OB. The EVPI is the expected payoff that the company will receive with perfect information. OC. The EVPI is the value that the company should expect to pay for perfect information.
Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Chapter2: Introduction To Spreadsheet Modeling
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 20P: Julie James is opening a lemonade stand. She believes the fixed cost per week of running the stand...
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![**Transcription for Educational Website:**
**Title: Decision-Making Under Uncertainty: Expected Opportunity Loss and Perfect Information**
**Problem Statement:**
Use the following payoff table to complete parts (a) through (j):
- Probability of Event 1 is 0.30
- Probability of Event 2 is 0.50
- Probability of Event 3 is 0.20
**Payoff Table:**
| EVENT | Buy 100, A ($) | Buy 200, B ($) | Buy 500, C ($) |
|-------------|----------------|----------------|----------------|
| Demand 100, 1 | 500 | 300 | -300 |
| Demand 200, 2 | 500 | 1,000 | 400 |
| Demand 500, 3 | 500 | 1,000 | 2,500 |
---
**Task:**
**d. Compute the Expected Opportunity Loss (EOL) for each action.**
- EOL(A) = $ [ ]
- EOL(B) = $ [ ]
- EOL(C) = $ [ ]
(*Note: Simplify your answers.*)
**e. Explain the Meaning of the Expected Value of Perfect Information (EVPI) in This Problem. Choose the Correct Answer Below:**
- **A.** The EVPI value provides a guideline for an upper bound on how much to consider paying for better information.
- **B.** The EVPI is the expected payoff that the company will receive with perfect information.
- **C.** The EVPI is the value that the company should expect to pay for perfect information.
---
**Detailed Explanation:**
*This section explains the concepts of Expected Opportunity Loss (EOL) and the Expected Value of Perfect Information (EVPI) in decision-making under uncertainty. The EOL helps in determining the cost of choosing a less-than-optimal decision by quantifying the loss associated with missed opportunities. EVPI, on the other hand, is a crucial concept in decision analysis that represents the maximum value a decision-maker would be willing to pay to acquire perfect information before making a decision.*](/v2/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcontent.bartleby.com%2Fqna-images%2Fquestion%2Fc91d435c-8a20-4fa9-b80f-5aaeb9e13244%2F2b283dc0-811e-43f1-b93e-b2d54c827afc%2Fdnep6c_processed.png&w=3840&q=75)
Transcribed Image Text:**Transcription for Educational Website:**
**Title: Decision-Making Under Uncertainty: Expected Opportunity Loss and Perfect Information**
**Problem Statement:**
Use the following payoff table to complete parts (a) through (j):
- Probability of Event 1 is 0.30
- Probability of Event 2 is 0.50
- Probability of Event 3 is 0.20
**Payoff Table:**
| EVENT | Buy 100, A ($) | Buy 200, B ($) | Buy 500, C ($) |
|-------------|----------------|----------------|----------------|
| Demand 100, 1 | 500 | 300 | -300 |
| Demand 200, 2 | 500 | 1,000 | 400 |
| Demand 500, 3 | 500 | 1,000 | 2,500 |
---
**Task:**
**d. Compute the Expected Opportunity Loss (EOL) for each action.**
- EOL(A) = $ [ ]
- EOL(B) = $ [ ]
- EOL(C) = $ [ ]
(*Note: Simplify your answers.*)
**e. Explain the Meaning of the Expected Value of Perfect Information (EVPI) in This Problem. Choose the Correct Answer Below:**
- **A.** The EVPI value provides a guideline for an upper bound on how much to consider paying for better information.
- **B.** The EVPI is the expected payoff that the company will receive with perfect information.
- **C.** The EVPI is the value that the company should expect to pay for perfect information.
---
**Detailed Explanation:**
*This section explains the concepts of Expected Opportunity Loss (EOL) and the Expected Value of Perfect Information (EVPI) in decision-making under uncertainty. The EOL helps in determining the cost of choosing a less-than-optimal decision by quantifying the loss associated with missed opportunities. EVPI, on the other hand, is a crucial concept in decision analysis that represents the maximum value a decision-maker would be willing to pay to acquire perfect information before making a decision.*
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