IN THE MID-1960S, WALT DISNEY'S DREAM was to build a family resort destinationlike no other. The dream became a reality when Walt Disney World Resort opened in1971, featuring Magic Kingdom as the centerpiece. Today, millions of guests visit theWalt Disney World Resort each year to experience the world-class theme parks andhotels. In addition to the four theme parks, there is a never-ending list of activities toenjoy, such as shopping at Downtown Disney, playing golf at one of five challengingcourses or plunging down a slide at one of our two water parks. When guests gethungry, more than 300 places to dine await them across the resort, ranging from fastcasual to fine dining. Guests are often surprised (and delighted) to discover that theresort has more sommeliers than any other company in the world! In all, more than60,000 cast members guide guests through these experiences, delivering legendaryservice and creating memories that last a lifetime. Guests vacationing usually focus onthe entertainment and attractions the resort has to offer. What most guests don't see isthe careful planning taking place "behind the scenes" to run the operation smoothly. Inthis article, we'll give you a peek at the role analytics plays in ensuring the guestexperience is maximized. Improving Guest Experience through ForecastingFORECASTING SERVES AS the analytical foundation for operations planning at theResort. It all starts with the park attendance forecast, which lays out the expectedattendance at each park. These predictions are strongly considered when setting parkhours and performing other strategic planning. More granular forecasts are required foreach individual area, such as guest arrivals at the hotel front desks. The companyrecently launched a new labor demand planning system, which generates transactionforecasts for every 15-minute period at many locations throughout the property,including park entry turnstiles, quick-service restaurants and merchandise locations.These forecasts help the resort plan labor effectively to ensure guest service standardsare met.The resort's costuming operation is the largest in the world, with more than a millioncostumes in inventory at Walt Disney World alone. Not only does total garment demandvary by season, but the distribution of individual garment sizes also changes as the castmix evolves over time. Unlike a traditional inventory system, garments are launderedand placed back on the shelf after cast members return the garments. The recyclingnature of the garment inventory is further complicated by occasional garment retires.This dynamic environment requires sophisticated forecasting models to have enoughgarments to meet cast member demand while not overspending on garments that sit ona shelf. Another innovative way the resort uses forecasting is for attraction wait times.The most popular attractions utilize Disney's FASTPASS system - a unique virtualqueueing system that allows guests to receive a ticket with a designated one-hourwindow of time when they can return and skip the regular line. The virtual queue posesan extra challenge to forecasting the standby wait time since many FASTPASS guestswill return before the guest entering the standby queue reaches the front of the line.The forecasts are posted at the front of the attractions to help guests choose whether toenter the line, take a FASTPASS ticket or return to the attraction later in the day. From acentral command center underneath the Magic Kingdom, forecasting models areexecuted every 5-10 minutes to project the return patterns of our FASTPASS guestsbased on a variety of factors, including entertainment schedules and the number ofFASTPASS tickets that have been distributed. These forecasts are posted at the front ofthe attractions to help guests choose whether to enter the line, take a FASTPASS ticketor return to the attraction later in the day. As an added bonus, these projected waittimes are also available on Disney's Mobile Magic smart phone app, which shares real-time information about the parks throughout the day. Making Smarter Decisions WHILEACCURATE FORECASTING is important, the results are only valuable when utilized tomake smarter decisions As Disney analysts understand more about guests and theirpreferences, they can utilize analytics to customize offerings and experiences thatbetter match resort guests' desires. As one example, data mining is used to understandwhat vacation packages are most appealing to different types of guests. This analysis,coupled with optimization models, allows the company's Web site and our call centeragents to present offers that provide a more customized vacation planning experience.The resort's table-service restaurant operation leverages optimization in uniqueways Statistical analyses helps the company understand the patterns around partysizes arrival times and table turn times. This knowledge is incorporated intomathematical models that determine the right mix of tables to best meet guestdemand Another set of models helps develop inventory templates that embrace thestochastic nature of the operation while maximizing the utilization of the restaurant Arecent update made these models dynamic in nature - accounting for the bookingsalready made while considering the projected reservations up until the actual dayarrives. Disney also applies analytics to streamline back-of-house operations. An on-sitetextiles facility handles nearly 300,000 pounds of laundry every day, servicing costumesfrom across the operation as well as linens from resort hotels. The resort leveragescomputer simulation to recreate the facility in a virtual environment. Simulation offersmany benefits prior to making physical changes, including identifying potentialbottlenecks and testing new concepts or designs that can increase the overall capacityof the facility. The resort has also utilized simulations in many other operational settings,including attractions, hotel front desks, restaurants and warehousing facilities.One of the resort's newest innovations is the creation of interactive queues, which keepguests entertained while they wait in line for an attraction. The most recently openedqueue is at The Haunted Mansion. Prior to entering the attraction, guests will findfrightful fun in a new courtyard queue that brings them into an expanded, interactivegraveyard featuring a ghoulish organ, a wall of unusual musical instruments guests can"orchestrate."a chance to complete a rhyme with the Decomposing Composer andphoto opportunities with favorite spirits from the beloved attraction. This new conceptchanges the way guests navigate through the queue - instead of progressing in a linearfashion, they often gravitate to one of the interactive elements found in the queue. Theresort is beginning to use agent-based simulation to model these new guest behaviorsand look to incorporate the findings into future queue designs.An Emerging Analytical Culture OVER THE PAST DECADE, analytics at Disney haveemerged as a powerful means to bring even more magic to its resort guests. Numerousdepartments across the company are leveraging enhanced tool sets to help solve itsmost challenging business problems, including forecasting, marketing, industrial engineering, revenue management and transportation, to name just a few. One result ofthis growth is the annual Disney Analytics & Optimization Summit. Taking place in thefall, it brings together cast members who have analytical roles throughout the companywith other external O.R. professionals. Last year, nearly 300 cast members attended thesummit - a true testament to the volume of analytical work being accomplished and howit is highly valued throughout the company. While much of this work originated at WaltDisney World, the groups are also taking on projects throughout the broader Disneyorganization. Many of the successful analytical projects are subsequently implementedat our other parks and resorts around the world. In fact, Disney recently launched twonew cruise ships into the Disney Cruise Line family, the Disney Dream and DisneyFantasy. Analytics were utilized throughout the planning process, including organizingthe logistics around training the nearly 1,700 new crew members and planning crewrotations on and off the ship. 16 OR/MS TODAY April 2012 ROUNDTABLE PROFILEDisney also continues to look for ways to expand its analytical best practices to othersegments of the company, including ABC, ESPN, and Studios divisions. With more databecoming available in an ever-changing landscape, Disney's need for analytics willcontinue to grow in the future.Questions1.Explain using illustrations how forecasting features in this company's operations.2.Explain at least four methods of forecasting that can be used for Disney's purpose.

Forecasting is a technique to predict future value. It is useful to predict future demand, sales, or…

Answered: Questions 1.Explain using illustrations…

Practical Management Science

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ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter2: Introduction To Spreadsheet Modeling

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Problem 20P: Julie James is opening a lemonade stand. She believes the fixed cost per week of running the stand...

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Questions 1.Explain using illustrations how forecasting features in this company's operations. 2.Explain at least four methods of forecasting that can be used for Disney's purpose.