a.MonthDemand1452483434485496547478509461047Using the table above, calculate two forecasts using the following method:-i.ii.iii.First, for periods 4 through 10, develop the exponentially smoothed forecastsusing a forecast for period 3 (F3) of 45.0 and an alpha of 0.4.Calculate the weighted moving average for periods 4 through 10, using weights of.70, .20, and .10, with 0.70 applied to the most recent data.Calculate the mean absolute deviation (MAD) for each forecasting procedure.Which forecasting procedure would you select? Why?

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Answered: a. Month Demand 1 45 2 48 3 43 4 48 5…

Understanding Business

12th Edition

ISBN:9781259929434

Author:William Nickels

Publisher:William Nickels

Chapter1: Taking Risks And Making Profits Within The Dynamic Business Environment

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 1CE

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a. Use a 3-month moving average to estimate the month-in-advance forecast of demand for months 4–12 and generate a forecast for the first month of next year. Calculate the average forecast error and mean absolute error. b. Use a 3-month weighted moving average with weights of 0.6, 0.3, 0.1 (most recent to least recent, respectively) to calculate month-in-advance forecasts for months 4–12 and forecast for the first month of next year. Calculate the average forecast error and mean absolute error. c. Compare the average forecast error and MAD for the forecasting methods in parts a and b. Based on these error calculations, which of the two forecast methods would you recommend? Why?

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