At the Rhorer Car Dealership, two salespersons deployed different forecast techniques. The Dealership's son, Joe uses exponential smoothing with alpha of 0.15; while the Sales Manager, Jack conducted focus groups, and market research. The data shown below. Determine which technique (using MAD analysis) gives a better forecast. # 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 [Select] [Select] [Select] Month - Yr. Sales 1/1/2016 234 1-Feb 345 3/1/2016 125 1-Apr 259 5/1/2016 315 1-Jun 278 7/1/2016 401 1-Aug 231 9/1/2016 368 1-Oct 268 11/1/2016 214 1-Dec 159 1/1/2017 200 2/1/2017 398 199 250 410 398 501 8/1/2017 327 1-Sep 219 10/1/2017 348 1-Nov 209 12/1/2017 276 1-Mar 4/1/2017 1-May 6/1/2017 1-Jul Joe Exp Smooth alpha 0.15 234 234 251 232 236 248 252 275 268 283 281 271 254 246 269 258 257 280 298 328 328 312 317 301 Jack Focus Group 269 397 144 298 362 320 461 266 423 308 246 183 240 478 239 300 492 478 601 392 263 418 251 331 What is the average error in the forecast for Joe's Exponential forecast with alpha 0.15 What is the average error in the forecast for Jack's Focus Group forecast? Which is a better forecast?
At the Rhorer Car Dealership, two salespersons deployed different forecast techniques. The Dealership's son, Joe uses exponential smoothing with alpha of 0.15; while the Sales Manager, Jack conducted focus groups, and market research. The data shown below. Determine which technique (using MAD analysis) gives a better forecast. # 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 [Select] [Select] [Select] Month - Yr. Sales 1/1/2016 234 1-Feb 345 3/1/2016 125 1-Apr 259 5/1/2016 315 1-Jun 278 7/1/2016 401 1-Aug 231 9/1/2016 368 1-Oct 268 11/1/2016 214 1-Dec 159 1/1/2017 200 2/1/2017 398 199 250 410 398 501 8/1/2017 327 1-Sep 219 10/1/2017 348 1-Nov 209 12/1/2017 276 1-Mar 4/1/2017 1-May 6/1/2017 1-Jul Joe Exp Smooth alpha 0.15 234 234 251 232 236 248 252 275 268 283 281 271 254 246 269 258 257 280 298 328 328 312 317 301 Jack Focus Group 269 397 144 298 362 320 461 266 423 308 246 183 240 478 239 300 492 478 601 392 263 418 251 331 What is the average error in the forecast for Joe's Exponential forecast with alpha 0.15 What is the average error in the forecast for Jack's Focus Group forecast? Which is a better forecast?
Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Chapter2: Introduction To Spreadsheet Modeling
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Problem 20P: Julie James is opening a lemonade stand. She believes the fixed cost per week of running the stand...
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Question
![At the Rhorer Car Dealership, two salespersons deployed different forecast techniques. The Dealership's son, Joe uses exponential smoothing with alpha of 0.15; while the Sales Manager, Jack conducted focus groups,
and market research. The data shown below. Determine which technique (using MAD analysis) gives a better forecast.
#
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
|
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
[Select]
[Select]
[Select]
Month - Yr. Sales
1/1/2016
234
345
3/1/2016
125
1-Apr
259
5/1/2016 315
278
7/1/2016 401
231
368
268
11/1/2016 214
159
1/1/2017 200
2/1/2017 398
1-Feb
1-Jun
1-Aug
9/1/2016
1-Oct
1-Dec
1-Mar
4/1/2017 250
410
398
501
8/1/2017 327
219
10/1/2017 348
209
12/1/2017 276
1-May
6/1/2017
1-Jul
1-Sep
199
1-Nov
Joe
Exp
Smooth
alpha 0.15
234
234
251
232
236
248
252
275
268
283
281
271
254
246
269
258
257
280
298
328
328
312
317
301
Jack
Focus
Group
269
397
144
298
362
320
461
266
423
308
246
183
240
478
239
300
492
478
601
392
263
418
251
331
What is the average error in the forecast for Joe's Exponential forecast with alpha 0.15
What is the average error in the forecast for Jack's Focus Group forecast?
Which is a better forecast?](/v2/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcontent.bartleby.com%2Fqna-images%2Fquestion%2F7d3ae8d7-5658-4ed4-9668-4ee58a946812%2F5771b049-271a-420e-9420-8003a781c865%2Ftx75kw3_processed.png&w=3840&q=75)
Transcribed Image Text:At the Rhorer Car Dealership, two salespersons deployed different forecast techniques. The Dealership's son, Joe uses exponential smoothing with alpha of 0.15; while the Sales Manager, Jack conducted focus groups,
and market research. The data shown below. Determine which technique (using MAD analysis) gives a better forecast.
#
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
|
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
[Select]
[Select]
[Select]
Month - Yr. Sales
1/1/2016
234
345
3/1/2016
125
1-Apr
259
5/1/2016 315
278
7/1/2016 401
231
368
268
11/1/2016 214
159
1/1/2017 200
2/1/2017 398
1-Feb
1-Jun
1-Aug
9/1/2016
1-Oct
1-Dec
1-Mar
4/1/2017 250
410
398
501
8/1/2017 327
219
10/1/2017 348
209
12/1/2017 276
1-May
6/1/2017
1-Jul
1-Sep
199
1-Nov
Joe
Exp
Smooth
alpha 0.15
234
234
251
232
236
248
252
275
268
283
281
271
254
246
269
258
257
280
298
328
328
312
317
301
Jack
Focus
Group
269
397
144
298
362
320
461
266
423
308
246
183
240
478
239
300
492
478
601
392
263
418
251
331
What is the average error in the forecast for Joe's Exponential forecast with alpha 0.15
What is the average error in the forecast for Jack's Focus Group forecast?
Which is a better forecast?
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