4.31 Emergency calls to the 911 system of Durham, North Carolina, for the past 24 weeks are shown in the following table: WEEK 1 2 3 4 7 8 9 10 11 12 CALLS 50 35 25 40 45 35 20 30 35 20 15 40 WEEK 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 CALLS 55 35 25 55 55 40 35 60 75 50 40 65 a) Compute the exponentially smoothed forecast of calls for each week. Assume an initial forecast of 50 calls in the first week, and use a = .2. What is the forecast for week 25? b) Reforecast each period using a = .6. c) Actual calls during week 25 were 85. Which smoothing con- stant provides a superior forecast? Explain and justify the measure of error you used. Px
4.31 Emergency calls to the 911 system of Durham, North Carolina, for the past 24 weeks are shown in the following table: WEEK 1 2 3 4 7 8 9 10 11 12 CALLS 50 35 25 40 45 35 20 30 35 20 15 40 WEEK 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 CALLS 55 35 25 55 55 40 35 60 75 50 40 65 a) Compute the exponentially smoothed forecast of calls for each week. Assume an initial forecast of 50 calls in the first week, and use a = .2. What is the forecast for week 25? b) Reforecast each period using a = .6. c) Actual calls during week 25 were 85. Which smoothing con- stant provides a superior forecast? Explain and justify the measure of error you used. Px
Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Chapter2: Introduction To Spreadsheet Modeling
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 20P: Julie James is opening a lemonade stand. She believes the fixed cost per week of running the stand...
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Transcribed Image Text:•• 4.31
North Carolina, for the past 24 weeks are shown in the following
table:
Emergency calls to the 911 system of Durham,
WEEK
1 2
3
4 5 6
7
8 9 10 11 12
CALLS 50 35
25 40
45
35
20 30 35
20
15
40
WEEK 13 14
15
16
17
18
19 20
21
22
23
24
CALLS 55 35
25
55
55 40
35 60 75
50 40
65
a) Compute the exponentially smoothed forecast of calls for each
week. Assume an initial forecast of 50 calls in the first week,
and use a = .2. What is the forecast for week 25?
b) Reforecast each period using a = .6.
c) Actual calls during week 25 were 85. Which smoothing con-
stant provides a superior forecast? Explain and justify the
measure of error you used. Px
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