Problem 1Ralph Billett is the manager of areal estate agency. He noWwishes to develop a forecast ofthe number of houses that will besold by the agency over the nextyear. The agency's quarter-by-quarter sales figures over the lastthree years are shown below.Quarter Year 1 Year 2 Year 3130597159284532228713457652. 2. Use Average Past Forecast andfind the following forecast:a. Year 1 Quarter 3b. Year 2 Quarter 2c. Year 3 Quarter 2d. Year 3 Quarter 4(Note: Answers should be in twodecimal places)

Find the Given details below: Given details: Sales (Year) Quarter 1 2 3 1 30 59 71 2…

Answered: Ralph Billett is the manager of a real…

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter2: Introduction To Spreadsheet Modeling

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 20P: Julie James is opening a lemonade stand. She believes the fixed cost per week of running the stand...

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Below is a table containing data on product demand for the most recent five months along with the forecasts that had been made for those 5 previous months. Use the 3-period weighted moving average method to forecast the number of sales to expect next month. Use the following weights: 0.4 for the most recent, 0.3 for the 2nd most recent, and 0.3 for the 3rd most recent. Month Demand Forecast 1 308 337 2 388 341.4 3 344 368 4 400 342.8 5 341 378.4
4. The sales (in millions of dollars) for an 18-month period are as follows. Month Sales Month Sales 1 600 600 775 10 775 3 600 11 600 4 650 12 575 700 13 625 800 14 650 550 15 600 8 775 a. Compare a three-month moving average forecast with an exponential smoothing forecast. Use a = 0.1. Which provides the better forecasts based on MSE? b. Find the forecast for the next month using the best forecast method. 2.
Show the steps on excel to plot the graph and insert the equation on the graph
The director of the Riley County, Kansas, library systemwould like to forecast evening patron usage for next week.Below are the data for the past 4 weeks: a) Calculate a seasonal index for each day of the week.b) If the trend equation for this problem is y = 201. 74 + .18x,what is the forecast for each day of week 5? Round your forecastto the nearest whole number.
The number of cases of merlot wine sold by the Connor Owen winery in an eight-year period is as follows: YEAR CASES OF MERLOT WINE 1 270 2 356 3 398 4 456 5 358 6 500 7 410 8 376 Using an exponential smoothing model with an alpha value of 0.20, estimate the smoothed value calculated as of the end of year 8. Use the average demand for years 1 through 3 as your initial forecast for year 4, and then smooth the forecast forward to year 8. Note: Round your intermediate calculations and final answer to the nearest whole number.
Demand for oil changes at Garcia's Garage has been as follows: Month January February March April May June July August Number of Oil Changes 38 55 56 60 58 01 70 52 a. Use simple linear regression analysis to develop a forecasting model for monthly demand. In this application, the dependent variable, Y, is monthly demand and the independent variable, X, is the month. For January, let X=1; for February, let X 2; and so on. The forecasting model is given by the equation Y=X (Enter your responses rounded to two decimal places)
A recently introduced product has a positive trend in sales. The product’s sales have increased in each of its first eight weeks on the market. The forecast for week 6 was 1,325 (F6 = 1,325), with A6 = 1,283 and T6 = 42. Using smoothing components α = 0.20 and β = 0.30, develop forecasts for weeks 7 and 8.
12.7 The Intrepid mutual fund of growth stocks has had the following average monthly price for the past 10 months. Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Fund Price 62.7 63.9 68.0 66.4 67.2 65.8 68.2 69.3 67.2 70.1 Compute the exponentially smoothed forecast with a = 0.40, the adjusted exponentially smoothed forecast with a = 0.40 and ß = 0.30, and the linear trend line forecast. Compare the accuracy of the three forecasts using cumulative error and MAD, and indicate which forecast appears to be most accurate.
Professor Very Busy needs to allocate time next week to include time for office hours. He needs to forecast the number of students who will seek appointments. He has gathered the following data: Week 6 weeks ago 5 weeks ago 4 weeks ago 3 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week # Students 83 110 95 80 65 50 What is this week's forecast using trend-adjusted (double) smoothing with alpha = .5 and beta = .1, if the forecast for last week was 65, the forecast for two weeks ago was 75, and the trend estimate for last week's forecast was -5? 49.3 78.7 51.3 50.6 65.4
One forecasting model was used to forecast demand for a product. The forecasts and the demand are shown in the table below. Use two decimals in your answer. Actual Forecast 1 40 41 2 35 38 3 38 35 4 33 30 The Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) is O 0.5 2.5 O 1.48 7.01
Given: Year Demand 1 7 2 9 3 5 4 9 5 Predict the value for Year 5: 2 year moving average What is MSE for 2 year moving average? 2 year moving average using 0.6 (weight for the oldest period) and 0.4(weight for most recent period Exponential smoothing, =0.2 and forecast for Year 1 = 5 Linear trend Which forecast method has the least amount of error using MAD? What is the coefficient?
The Carbondale Hospital is considering the purchase of a new ambulance. The decision will rest partly on the anticipated mileage to be driven next year. The miles driven during the past 5 years are as follows Year Mileage 1 3,100 2 4,000 3 3,450 4 3,850 5 3,750 a) Using a 2-year moving average, the forecast for year 6 = 3800 miles (round your response to the nearest whole number). b) If a 2-year moving average is used to make the forecast, the MAD based on this = 108.3 miles (round your response to one decimal place). (Hint. You will have only 3 years of matched data.) c) The forecast for year 6 using a weighted 2-year moving average with weights of 0.40 and 0.60 (the weight of 0.60 is for the most recent period) = miles (round your response to the nearest whole number)

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