4. The sales (in millions of dollars) for an 18-month period are as follows.MonthSalesMonthSales1600600775107753600116004650125757001362580014650550156008775a. Compare a three-month moving average forecast with an exponential smoothingforecast. Use a = 0.1. Which provides the better forecasts based on MSE?b. Find the forecast for the next month using the best forecast method.2.

Forecasting is the process of predicting the future demand based on the previous data or demand.

Answered: a. Compare a three-month moving average…

Practical Management Science

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Chapter2: Introduction To Spreadsheet Modeling

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Problem 20P: Julie James is opening a lemonade stand. She believes the fixed cost per week of running the stand...

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The following represents the actual demand and two different sets of forecasts using different methods. Compute the MAD for each forecasting method and determine the best method for this set of data. Year-Qtr Actual demand Forecast methos 1 MAD1 (A-F) Forecast Method 2 MAD2 (A-F) 2020-3 98 97 89 2020-4 108 110 106 2021-1 83 68 70 2021-2 100 101 102 2021-3 95 86 87 2021-4 90 94 92 2022-1 71 68 72 2022-2 104 105 106 2022-3 84 91 88 2022-4 80 93 91 2023-1 78 68 70 2023-2 120 118 122
Assume that the data in columns A and B report the new constructions of residential homes, per month, in thousands, from 2015 to 2020 in the state of Oregon. a) Chart the data. Discuss any apparent trend and seasonal patterns. b) Use the "Tahoe Salt" method with linear trend to forecast new constructions for the 12 months of 2021. c) Add your model values and forecast to the data chart. d) Compute the MAD of your model. e) Compute and plot the tracking signal in a new chart. f) Discuss the quality of this model. What is the flagrant flaw? g) Suggest an approach that would yield better results in terms of forecast values, MAD, and tracking signal. An appropriate narrative argument is sufficient (i.e., one or two sentences). You do not need to do calculations for this part.
Please help with the correct answers in details: Centerville Bikes and Stuff (CBS) sells motorcycles and accessories. The number of helmets sold by CBS per week for the past six weeks follows. Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 Value 19 12 17 10 18 15 Using the naive method (most recent value) as the forecast for the next week, compute the following measures of forecast accuracy. (a) mean absolute error MAE = (b) mean squared error MSE = (c) mean absolute percentage error (Round your answer to two decimal places.) MAPE = % (d) What is the forecast for week 7?
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a. Compare a three-month moving average forecast with an exponential smoothing forecast. Use a = .1. Which provides the better forecasts based on MSE? b. Find the forecast for the next month using the best forecast method.