Assume that the data in columns A and B report the new constructions of residential homes, per month, in thousands, from 2015 to 2020 in the state of Oregon.a) Chart the data. Discuss any apparent trend and seasonal patterns.b) Use the "Tahoe Salt" method with linear trend to forecast new constructions for the 12 months of 2021.c) Add your model values and forecast to the data chart.d) Compute the MAD of your model.e) Compute and plot the tracking signal in a new chart.f) Discuss the quality of this model. What is the flagrant flaw?g) Suggest an approach that would yield better results in terms of forecast values, MAD, and tracking signal. An appropriate narrative argument is sufficient (i.e., one or two sentences). You do not need to do calculations for this part. 44 Jul-20184445 Aug-201846 Sep-2018484547 Oct-20184448 Nov-20184049 Dec-20183750 Jan-20194551 Feb-20194952 Mar-20196253 Apr-201954 May-2019625855 Jun-20195956 Jul-20196457 Aug-201958 Sep-2019625059 Oct-20195260 Nov-20195061 Dec-20194462 Jan-20205163 Feb-20205664 Mar-20206065 Apr-202066 May-2020656467 Jun-20206368 Jul-20206369 Aug-202070 Sep-2020726171 Oct-20206572 Nov-20205173 Dec-202047 ABNew constructionsMonth1(thousands)2Jan-201529Feb-2015324Mar-2015415 Apr-20156 May-201544497Jun-201547Jul-2015469 Aug-201510 Sep-201511 Oct-201547434512 Nov-20153413 Dec-20153114 Jan-201635Feb-20164316 Mar-20164617 Apr-201618 May-2016464319 Jun-20164120 Jul-20164421 Aug-201622 Sep-2016474123 Oct-20164024 Nov-20163225 Dec-20163226 Jan-20173427 Feb-20174028 Mar-20174329 Apr-201730 May-2017424331 Jun-20174432 Jul-20173933 Aug-201734 Sep-2017403335 Oct-20173236 Nov-20173137 Dec-20172838 Jan-20183439 Feb-20182940 Mar-20183641 Apr-201842 May-2018424343 Jun-201844

Answer a Graph of the data is as under Answer b Draw a trendline in the graph of answer part a-…

Answered: Assume that the data in columns A and B…

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter2: Introduction To Spreadsheet Modeling

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 20P: Julie James is opening a lemonade stand. She believes the fixed cost per week of running the stand...

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Assume that the data in columns A and B report the new constructions of residential homes, per month, in thousands, from 2015 to 2020 in the state of Oregon.

a) Chart the data. Discuss any apparent trend and seasonal patterns.

b) Use the "Tahoe Salt" method with linear trend to forecast new constructions for the 12 months of 2021.

c) Add your model values and forecast to the data chart.

d) Compute the MAD of your model.

e) Compute and plot the tracking signal in a new chart.

f) Discuss the quality of this model. What is the flagrant flaw?

g) Suggest an approach that would yield better results in terms of forecast values, MAD, and tracking signal. An appropriate narrative argument is sufficient (i.e., one or two sentences). You do not need to do calculations for this part.

44 Jul-2018
44
45 Aug-2018
46 Sep-2018
48
45
47 Oct-2018
44
48 Nov-2018
40
49 Dec-2018
37
50 Jan-2019
45
51 Feb-2019
49
52 Mar-2019
62
53 Apr-2019
54 May-2019
62
58
55 Jun-2019
59
56 Jul-2019
64
57 Aug-2019
58 Sep-2019
62
50
59 Oct-2019
52
60 Nov-2019
50
61 Dec-2019
44
62 Jan-2020
51
63 Feb-2020
56
64 Mar-2020
60
65 Apr-2020
66 May-2020
65
64
67 Jun-2020
63
68 Jul-2020
63
69 Aug-2020
70 Sep-2020
72
61
71 Oct-2020
65
72 Nov-2020
51
73 Dec-2020
47

A
B
New constructions
Month
1
(thousands)
2
Jan-2015
29
Feb-2015
32
4
Mar-2015
41
5 Apr-2015
6 May-2015
44
49
7
Jun-2015
47
Jul-2015
46
9 Aug-2015
10 Sep-2015
11 Oct-2015
47
43
45
12 Nov-2015
34
13 Dec-2015
31
14 Jan-2016
35
Feb-2016
43
16 Mar-2016
46
17 Apr-2016
18 May-2016
46
43
19 Jun-2016
41
20 Jul-2016
44
21 Aug-2016
22 Sep-2016
47
41
23 Oct-2016
40
24 Nov-2016
32
25 Dec-2016
32
26 Jan-2017
34
27 Feb-2017
40
28 Mar-2017
43
29 Apr-2017
30 May-2017
42
43
31 Jun-2017
44
32 Jul-2017
39
33 Aug-2017
34 Sep-2017
40
33
35 Oct-2017
32
36 Nov-2017
31
37 Dec-2017
28
38 Jan-2018
34
39 Feb-2018
29
40 Mar-2018
36
41 Apr-2018
42 May-2018
42
43
43 Jun-2018
44

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