An analyst must decide between two different forecasting techniques for weekly sales of roller blades: a linear trend equation and thenaive approach. The linear trend equation is F+ = 125+ 2.0t, and it was developed using data from periods 1 through 10. Based on datafor periods 11 through 20 as shown in the table, which of these two methods has the greater accuracy if MAD and MSE are used?(Round your intermediate calculations and final answers to 2 decimal places.)t11121314151617181920Units Sold148150149146156148156156154159163Click here for the Excel Data FileMAD (Naive)MAD (Linear)MSE (Naive)MSE (Linear)4.783.70

Here, for each period, I have been given the units sold data, This is actual data, I would use two…

Answered: An analyst must decide between two…

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter2: Introduction To Spreadsheet Modeling

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 20P: Julie James is opening a lemonade stand. She believes the fixed cost per week of running the stand...

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Demand for oil changes at Garcia's Garage has been as follows: Month January February March April May June July August Number of Oil Changes 38 55 56 60 58 01 70 52 a. Use simple linear regression analysis to develop a forecasting model for monthly demand. In this application, the dependent variable, Y, is monthly demand and the independent variable, X, is the month. For January, let X=1; for February, let X 2; and so on. The forecasting model is given by the equation Y=X (Enter your responses rounded to two decimal places)
Data collected on the yearly registrations for a Six Sigma seminar at the Quality College are shown in the following table: Year Year Forecast (000) 1 2 4.00 7.00 1 5.00 3 5.00 Registrations (000) a) Calculate the forecasted registrations for years 2 through 12 using exponential smoothing, with a smoothing constant (a) of 0.40 and a starting forecast of 5.00 for year 1 (round your responses to one decimal place): 2 3 4.6 5.56 4 4.00 4 5.34 11 9 10 7 8 6 5 9.00 9.00 6.00 10.00 13.00 14.00 12.00 5 4.80 6 7 6.48 7.49 8 6.89 9 8.14 10 10.08 11 11.64 12 11.79 b) Mean absolute deviation based on the forecast developed using the exponential smoothing method (with a smoothing constant (a) = 0.40 and a starting forecast of F₁ = 5.00) is response to one decimal place). registrations (round your
Can you please solve all parts of the question manually. Thank you!
A security company had to deploy guards for emergencies multiple times in the last four evenings. The numbers of emergencies for Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday were 7, 4, 8, and 11, respectively. What would be the security company's forecast for the number of emergencies on Friday using an exponential smoothing forecasting approach? (Use \alpha= 0.2 and a forecast for Monday of 10 emergencies)
Here are the actual tabulated demands for an item for a nine-month period (January through September). Your supervisor wants to test two forecasting methods to see which method was better over this period. MONTH ACTUAL January 120 February 145 March 146 April 171 May 154 June 182 July 138 August 135 September 146 a. Forecast April through September using a three-month moving average. b. Use simple exponential smoothing with an alpha of 0.20 to estimate April through September, using the average of January through March as the initial forecast for April. c-1. Calculate MAD for Three-month moving average and Exponential smoothing. c-2. Use MAD to decide which method produced the better forecast over the six-month period.
Mark Gershon, owner of a musical instrument distributorship, thinks that demand for guitars may be related to the number of television appearances by the popular group Maroon 5 during the previous month. Gershon has collected the data shown in the following table: Maroon 5 TV Appearances 3 3 8 5 8 6 Demand for Guitars 2 5 6 4 11 6 This exercise contains only parts b, c, and d. b) Using the least-squares regression method, the equation for forecasting is (round your responses to four decimal places): Y = + c) The estimate for guitar sales if Maroon 5 performed on TV 11times = sales (round your response to two decimal places). d) The correlation coefficient (r)for this model = (round your response to four decimal places). The coefficient of determination (r2) for this model = (round your response to…
Give typed explanation Part 2: Using exponential smoothing, the forecasted demand for period 5 using the smoothing constant determined in image= ?
Hi, I need help with solving for the following values (boxed). Thank you.
If month one has 240,000 demands, month two 250,080 demands, month three 325,00 demands, month four 370,000 demands, month five 420,000 demands and month six 509,00 demands. Use a forecast for the first month of 240,000, an initial trend forecast of 50,000, and smoothing parameters of 0.35 for both demand smoothing and trend smoothing. Compute the forecasts and trends using double exponential smoothing
Amazon finds that sales in July are much greater relative to other months because of the Amazon Prime days in that month. Assuming that an exponential smoothing model is used for forecasting sales, what should the company best do to make the forecast for the next month (Aug) more reflective of reality? Please pick from the provided options. F t+1 = αDt + (1-α) Ft increase value of alpha decrease value of alpha stay with the same alpha decrease the expected forecast for the current month (Ft) On hearing our forecast, our clients probe - how sure are we about the forecast? Which measure of errror (among those stated below) should we best use to respond? a. Root MSE (RMSE) b. Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) c. Mean forecast error (Avg. error) d. Cumulative forecast error (CFE)
Which of the following are common metrics for measuring the relative quality of different forecasting methods? OAbsolutely Mean Mean Squared Accuracy O Mean Absolute Percent Error Mean Squared Response OMean Squared Error Mean Absolute Error (a.k.a. Mean Absolute Deviation)
Note:- Do not provide handwritten solution. Maintain accuracy and quality in your answer. Take care of plagiarism. Answer completely. You will get up vote for sure.

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