A security company had to deploy guards for emergencies multiple times in the last four evenings. The numbers of emergencies for Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday were 7, 4, 8, and 11, respectively. What would be the security company's forecast for the number of emergencies on Friday using an exponential smoothing forecasting approach? (Use \alpha = 0.2 and a forecast for Monday of 10 emergencies)
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- Under what conditions might a firm use multiple forecasting methods?The Baker Company wants to develop a budget to predict how overhead costs vary with activity levels. Management is trying to decide whether direct labor hours (DLH) or units produced is the better measure of activity for the firm. Monthly data for the preceding 24 months appear in the file P13_40.xlsx. Use regression analysis to determine which measure, DLH or Units (or both), should be used for the budget. How would the regression equation be used to obtain the budget for the firms overhead costs?The file P13_42.xlsx contains monthly data on consumer revolving credit (in millions of dollars) through credit unions. a. Use these data to forecast consumer revolving credit through credit unions for the next 12 months. Do it in two ways. First, fit an exponential trend to the series. Second, use Holts method with optimized smoothing constants. b. Which of these two methods appears to provide the best forecasts? Answer by comparing their MAPE values.
- The owner of a restaurant in Bloomington, Indiana, has recorded sales data for the past 19 years. He has also recorded data on potentially relevant variables. The data are listed in the file P13_17.xlsx. a. Estimate a simple regression equation involving annual sales (the dependent variable) and the size of the population residing within 10 miles of the restaurant (the explanatory variable). Interpret R-square for this regression. b. Add another explanatory variableannual advertising expendituresto the regression equation in part a. Estimate and interpret this expanded equation. How does the R-square value for this multiple regression equation compare to that of the simple regression equation estimated in part a? Explain any difference between the two R-square values. How can you use the adjusted R-squares for a comparison of the two equations? c. Add one more explanatory variable to the multiple regression equation estimated in part b. In particular, estimate and interpret the coefficients of a multiple regression equation that includes the previous years advertising expenditure. How does the inclusion of this third explanatory variable affect the R-square, compared to the corresponding values for the equation of part b? Explain any changes in this value. What does the adjusted R-square for the new equation tell you?The file P13_29.xlsx contains monthly time series data for total U.S. retail sales of building materials (which includes retail sales of building materials, hardware and garden supply stores, and mobile home dealers). a. Is seasonality present in these data? If so, characterize the seasonality pattern. b. Use Winters method to forecast this series with smoothing constants = = 0.1 and = 0.3. Does the forecast series seem to track the seasonal pattern well? What are your forecasts for the next 12 months?The file P13_22.xlsx contains total monthly U.S. retail sales data. While holding out the final six months of observations for validation purposes, use the method of moving averages with a carefully chosen span to forecast U.S. retail sales in the next year. Comment on the performance of your model. What makes this time series more challenging to forecast?
- The file P13_26.xlsx contains the monthly number of airline tickets sold by the CareFree Travel Agency. a. Create a time series chart of the data. Based on what you see, which of the exponential smoothing models do you think will provide the best forecasting model? Why? b. Use simple exponential smoothing to forecast these data, using a smoothing constant of 0.1. c. Repeat part b, but search for the smoothing constant that makes RMSE as small as possible. Does it make much of an improvement over the model in part b?Complete the forecasting worksheets for: Naïve Average Moving Average Weighted Moving Average using the weights of .8, .15, and .05 with .8 being the most current, then .15, then .05 ExponA using and alpha level of .75 ExponB will automatically be .25 when A is .75 Exponential Solver What is the best alpha level as determined by the Exponential Solver? Which is the best forecasting option for MAE? What is the MAE? Which is the best forecasting option for MAPE? What is the MAPE? Period Sales 1 115 2 118 3 128 4 122 5 135 6 128 7 135 8 132 9 132 10 1351. The number of bushels of apples sold at a roadside fruit stand over a 12-day period were PROBLEMS as follows: Day Numbar Sold Day Number Sold 25 35 31 29 33 32 38 10 40 37 32 34 11 37 12 If a two-period moving average has been used to forecast sales, what were the daily forecasts starting with the forecast for day 3? If a four-period moving average has been used, what were the forecasts for eacn uay starting with day 5? Plot the original data and each set of forecasts on the same graph. Which forecast has the greater tendency to smooth? Which forecast has the better ability to respond quickly to changes? What does use of the term sales instead of demand imply? b. C. 2. If exponential smoothing with a = .4 had been used to forecast daily sales for apples in Problem 1, determine what the daily forecasts would have been. Then, plot the original data, the exponential forecasts, and a set of naive forecasts on the same graph. Based on a visual comparison, is the naive more accurate or…
- An analyst must decide between two different forecasting techniques for weekly sales of roller blades: a linear trend equation and the naive approach. The linear trend equation is F̟ = 124 + 2.1t, and it was developed using data from periods 1 through 10. Based on data for periods 11 through 20 as shown in the table, which of these two methods has the greater accuracy if MAD and MSE are used? (Round your intermediate calculations and final answers to 2 decimal places.) t Units Sold 11 144 12 146 13 152 14 142 15 152 16 149 17 152 18 154 19 20 157 164 Click here for the Excel Data File MAD (Naive) 5.11 MAD (Linear) 5.49 MSE (Naive) MSE (Linear)An analyst must decide between two different forecasting techniques for weekly sales of roller blades: a linear trend equation and the naive approach. The linear trend equation is F; = 124 + 2.1t, and it was developed using data from periods 1 through 10. Based on data for periods 11 through 20 as shown in the table, which of these two methods has the greater accuracy if MAD and MSE are used? (Round your intermediate calculations and final answers to 2 decimal places.) t Units Sold 11 144 12 146 13 152 14 142 15 152 16 149 17 152 18 154 19 157 20 164 Click here for the Excel Data File MAD (Naive) 5.11 MAD (Linear) 5.49 MSE (Naive) MSE (Linear)Sales of Volkswagen's popular Beetle have grown steadily at auto dealerships in Nevada during the past 5 years (see table below). Using exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant (a) of 0.30 and a starting forecast of 415.00, the following sales forecast has been developed: Forecasted Year Sales Sales 2005 455 415.00 2006 510 427.00 2007 516 451.90 2008 570 471.13 2009 585 500.79 The MAD for a forecast developed using exponential smoothing with a = 0.30 is 74.04 sales (round your response to two decimal places). Forecasted sales for years 2006 through 2010 using exponential smoothing with a = 0.60 and a starting forecast of 415.00 are (round your responses to two decimal places): Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Forecasted Sales 415.00 439 481.6 502.24 542.9 568.12 The MAD for a forecast developed using exponential smoothing with a = 0.60 is decimal places). sales (round your response to two