The analytics department is researching the past five years of their company's sales to better prepare for the future. The company has experienced a variation in sales for no known reason and wants to develop a forecast using the exponential smoothing method. Usingdata from the previous 20 days, the following summary table was calculated. What is the MAD?DaySalesAt170ŷe=yt-Ŷte²le26969.770-11136768.8969.7-2.77.292.7200 2063.0363.03-2.89778.39682 2.8977208.066 53.3112.813.9010.9513.87Total0000

Step 1: Identify the formula for Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)MAD = ∑|e|/nwhere:∑|e| = total of all…

Answered: The analytics department is researching…

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter2: Introduction To Spreadsheet Modeling

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 20P: Julie James is opening a lemonade stand. She believes the fixed cost per week of running the stand...

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i need this to study stop canceling my questions A check-processing center uses exponential smooth- ing to forecast the number of incoming checks each month. The number of checks received in June was 40 million, while the fore- cast was 42 million. A smoothing constant of .2 is used. a) What is the forecast for July?b) If the center received 45 million checks in July, what would be the forecast for August?c) Why might this be an inappropriate forecasting method for the situation
Given the following data of actual sales and forecast for the five months: Month 1, Month 2, Month 3, Month 4, Month 5, and Month 6: Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 Actual Sales 50 40 45 55 65 50 Forecast 55 50 (b) Calculate the Mean Square Error (MSE). (a) Calculate the Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE). 40 50° 65 40 (c) Calculate the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD).
The following data are for calculator sales in units at an electronics store over the past nine weeks: Week Sales Week Sales 1 45 53 2 50 7 59 3 44 8. 59 4 51 9 64 5 57 Use trend projection with regression to forecast sales for weeks 10 - 13. What are the error measures (CFE, MSE, o, MAD, and MAPE) for this forecasting procedure? How about ? Obtain the trend projection with regression forecast for weeks 10 – 13. (Enter your responses rounded to two decimal places.) Period Forecast, F, 10 64.81 11 67.06 12 69.31 13 71.56 Obtain the error measures. (Enter your responses rounded to two decimal places.) CFE MSE MAD МАРЕ
The director of the Riley County, Kansas, library systemwould like to forecast evening patron usage for next week.Below are the data for the past 4 weeks: a) Calculate a seasonal index for each day of the week.b) If the trend equation for this problem is y = 201. 74 + .18x,what is the forecast for each day of week 5? Round your forecastto the nearest whole number.
4) A small manufacturing firm has recorded a time series of the cost per unit for the firm's leading product over the past eight years. Year Cost/Unit($) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 20 24.5 28.2 27.5 26.6 30 31 36 a) If you are not given a base value or trend, what would be the forecast for the year 10 made at the end of year 8 (a=0.2, ß=0.4). b) Forecast for the year 9 using 1) 5-month weighted average using 0.1,0.1,0.1,0.2,0.3, with the heaviest weight applied to the recent month 2) Exponential smoothing using a =0.2 and forecast of 21 for year 5 3) If a value was not provided in the question above, what value of a would you choose?
Here are the data for the past 21 months for actual sales of a particular product: LAST YEAR THIS YEAR January 315 February 418 March 390 April 430 May 400 [ June 480 July 430 August 320 September 385 October 530 November 592 555 December 300 400 350 460 390 395 355 245 340 Develop a forecast for the fourth quarter using a three-quarter, weighted moving average. Weight the most recent quarter 0.50, the second most recent 0.25, and the third 0.25. Do the problem using quarters, as opposed to forecasting separate months. (Round your answer to 2 decimal places.) Forecast for the fourth quarter
Below is a table containing data on product demand for the most recent three months along with the forecasts that had been made for those three previous months. Calculate the MAE (or MAD). Month Demand Forecast 1 308 310 2 388 390 3 344 342
The following are monthly actual and forecast demand levels for May through December for units of a product manufactured by the Deborah Bishop Company in Des Moines: Month May June July August September October Actual Demand 105 82 110 112 108 106 130 120 Forecast Demand 100 108 97 98 108 102 105 107 November December For the given forecast, the tracking signal = MADS (round your response to two decimal places).
Given the table below, complete the missing cell values applying the Exponential Smoothing method of forecasting and Mean Absolute Deviation. Answer also the other 2 related questions below the table. Numbers with decimal should take 2 decimal places. Actual Quarter Tonnage Unloaded 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 175 160 170 160 160 170 180 200 Forecast for a=3 175 175.0 170.5 167.2 165.1 166.6 170.6 Sum of absolute deviation = Absolute Deviation for a = .3 Other questions: (1) What is the MAD for a = .3? (2) Which smoothing constant would you prefer? 0.00 15.00 0.50 10.35 4.93 13.45 29.41 80.89 Forecast for a = .6 175 166.0 168.4 163.4 161.3 166.5 174.6 Absolute Deviation for a = .6 0.00 15.00 4.00 8.40 3.36 8.66 13.46 25.38
The following data are for calculator sales in units at an electronics store over the past nine weeks: Week Sales Week Sales 45 6 53 50 7 59 44 8 59 51 64 57 Use trend projection with regression to forecast sales for weeks 10 - 13. What are the error measures (CFE, MSE, G. MAD, and MAPE) for this forecasting procedure? How about ?? Obtain the trend projection with regression forecast for weeks 10 - 13. (Enter your responses rounded to two decimal places.) Period Forecast, F 10 64.81 11 67.06 12 69.31 13 71.56 Obtain the error measures. (Enter your responses rounded to two decimal places.) CFE MSE MAD MAPE 6.72 2.75 2.1 4.1 % Find the coefficient of determination (). The coefficient of determination ? = (Enter your response rounded to two decimal places.)
Use regression or simple exponential smoothing with the following data. For exponential smoothing, assume the forecast for year 1 was the same as the actual and use an alpha of 0.7. (use excel to show formauls used) Year Sales 1 290 2 340 3 400 4 410 5 400 1. What is the tracking signal for the forecast?
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