4) A small manufacturing firm has recorded a time series of the cost perunit for the firm's leading product over the past eight years.Year Cost/Unit($)123456782024.528.227.526.6303136a) If you are not given a base value or trend, what would be the forecast forthe year 10 made at the end of year 8 (a=0.2, ß=0.4).b) Forecast for the year 9 using1) 5-month weighted average using 0.1,0.1,0.1,0.2,0.3, with the heaviestweight applied to the recent month2) Exponential smoothing using a =0.2 and forecast of 21 for year 53) If a value was not provided in the question above, what value of awould you choose?

Forecasting is the process of predicting future values of a variable or a time series based on…

Answered: 4) A small manufacturing firm has…

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter2: Introduction To Spreadsheet Modeling

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 20P: Julie James is opening a lemonade stand. She believes the fixed cost per week of running the stand...

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What would this year's forecast be if we were using the naive approach?
The Bayside Fountain Hotel is adjacent to County Coliseum, a 24,000- seat arena that is home to the city's professional basketball and ice hockey teams and that hosts a variety of concerts, trade shows, and conventions throughout the year. The hotel has experienced the following occupancy rates for the past 9 years, since the coliseum opened. Compute an exponentially smoothed forecast with an a value of .20. According to the result from Excel and/or POM-QM, the forecast for the year 5 would be (type number only, two decimals) Year Occupancy Rate (%) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 6.26 83 78 75 81 86 85 89 90 86
The Carbondale Hospital is considering the purchase of a new ambulance. The decision will rest partly on the anticipated mileage to be driven next year. The milles driven during the past 5 years are K as follows Year Mileage 3,000 2 3 4,000 3,400 4 3,800 5 3,700 a) Using a 2-year moving average, the forecast for year 6- 3750 miles (round your response to the nearest whole number) b) If a 2-year moving average is used to make the forecast, the MAD based on this miles (round your response to a whole number). (Hint: You will have only 3 years of matched data)
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The Carbondale Hospital is considering the purchase of a new ambulance. The decision will rest partly on the anticipated mileage to be driven next year. The miles driven during the past 5 years are as follows: 1 3,000 2 3,950 3 3,400 Year Mileage a) Using a 2-year moving average, the forecast for year 6 = miles (round your response to the nearest whole number). 4 3,750 5 3,750
Consider the following from an estate agent business: Month Houses Sold Jan 380 Feb 360 Mar 390 Apr 400 May 390 June 380 July 394 Aug 454 Sep 460 Oct 460 Nov 430 Dec 370 a) Calculate the three point moving averages (quarters) and seasonal variation for the above data b) A detective figures he has a one in nine chance of recovering stolen property. His out-of-pocket expenses for the investigation are $9,000. If he is paid his fee only if he recovers the stolen property, what should he charge clients in order to breakeven? c) At the races, your horse, has a probability of 1/20 of coming 151, 1/10 of coming 2nd and a probability of ¼ in coming 3rd. First place pays $4,500 to the winner, second place $3,500 and third place $1,500. Hence, is it worth entering the race if it costs $1,000? d) Your company plans to invest in a particular…
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