Given is a Decision Tree Diagram. The Payoffs 1-14 are given in the table below. Answer questions a, b, and c.1/3PayOff 5..1/3PayOff 21/3PayOff 30.300.50PayOff 4PayOff 5Alternative A0.20PayOff 6Alternative B0.300.501/3PayOff 71/32PayOff 81/3PayOff 95PayOff 10PayOff 110.20PayOff 121/26PayOff 1331/2PayOff 14Payo123567891011121314ff$5-252925-5344-376a) The value at node 4 is Blank 1 b) The value at node 8 is Blank 2 (in 1 decimal place) c) The best course of action or decision is to selectalternative Blank 3

Sure, I can help you answer the questions about the decision tree diagram.a) The expected value at…

Answered: Given is a Decision Tree Diagram. The…

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter9: Decision Making Under Uncertainty

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 30P

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2. Consider a bidding problem similar to that presented in class. You can still either bid high or low on either the dam or highway project, or you can not prepare a bid. However, the probabilities and outcomes are given in Tables 2.1 and 2.2. Table 2.1 Probabilities and profits of bid results Project Probability Conditional Profit [$] Bid Type of Result Upon Bid of Bid of Result High Win 0.20 Table 2.2 Lose 0.80 -50,000 Dam Low Win 0.40 Table 2.2 Lose 0.60 -50,000 High Win 0.10 Table 2.2 Lose 0.90 -100,000 Highway Low Win 0.20 Table 2.2 Lose 0.80 -100,000 Table 2.2 Outcome and probabilities, conditional on winning the bid Probability Possible of Outcome Project Bid Profit [$], if Bid is Type of Bid Upon Outcome Won High 600,000 0.60 High -100,000 0.40 Dam Low 300,000 0.70 Low -200,000 0.30 1,200,000 0.60 High High -200,000 0.40 Highway Low 600,000 0.70 Low -300,000 0.30 a(i) Consider that you want to maximize the Expected Value (EV) of profit. Draw the decision tree and "work the…
1. Consider the decision table given below. Find which Profits NI N2 N3 N4 decision will be taken, as a function of c (a real number) according to a. Wald's criterion, Laplace's criterion, and Hurwicz's criterion (take a-0.6). b. Find the range(s) of c for which all three methods uniquely lead to same alternative. SI 3. 4 6. S2 2 4 S3 6. S4 6. 6
Pls help ASAP for both
( Use an excel sheet to show formulas used )
For the following payoff table, what alternative should be chosen if you are following a Maximin strategy? alternative. yes. No small. 10. 30 Medium 20 40 medium Large 30 45 large 40 35 extra large 60 20 prior probability 0.3 0.7 a.Medium Large b.Medium c.Small d.Extra Large e.Large
(Use this information to answer only problem 1 part d and problem 2. A on an excel sheet to show formulas used to answer these two questions)
Calculate the payoffs of the following decision tree: Make movie Decision 3.62 Don't make movie Payoff 1= Payoff 2= Payoff 3= Payoff 4= TRUE -10 FALSE 0 High Revenue Chance 3.62 Medium Revenue Low Revenue 16% 23 15 19% 1 Payoff 1 Payoff 2 Payoff 3 Payoff 4
Use Excel Spreadsheets to solve
Seneca Hill Winery recently purchased land for the purpose of establishing a new vineyard. Management is considering two varieties of white grapes for the new vineyard: Chardonnay and Riesling. The Chardonnay grapes would be used to produce a dry Chardonnay wine, and the Riesling grapes would be used to produce a semidry Riesling wine. It takes approximately four years from the time of planting before new grapes can be harvested. This length of time creates a great deal of uncertainty concerning future demand and makes the decision concerning the type of grapes to plant difficult. Three possibilities are being considered: Chardonnay grapes only; Riesling grapes only; and both Chardonnay and Riesling grapes. Seneca management decided that for planning purposes it would be adequate to consider only two demand possibilities for each type of wine: strong or weak. With two possibilities for each type of wine it was necessary to assess four probabilities. With the help of some forecasts in…
c. From the following decision tree, develop a payoff table and calculate: * Maximax, Minimax regret, Maximin, and EMV. ORs. 50,000 Good conditions (0.60) Poor conditions (0.40) -O Rs. 30,000 Apartment Building Good conditions (0.60) O Rs. 100,000 Office building Poor conditions (0.40) Purchase ORs -40,000 Warchouse Good conditions (0.60) Rs.30, 000 Poor conditions (0.40) O Rs. 10,000
Problem 2: You go to the racetrack and are choosing between 2 horses: Belle and Jeb (you are at the racetrack, so you will bet on one of these two horses). Betting on either horse will cost you $1, and the payoffs are as follows: • Bet on Belle: you will be paid $2 if she wins (or a net profit of $1). You believe she has a 75% chance of winning. • Bet on Jeb: you will be paid $9 if he wins (for a net profit of $8). You believe that he has a 20% chance of winning. Prior to making your decision of which horse to bet on, someone comes and offers you gambler’s “insurance.” If you agree to the gamblers “insurance,” they pay you $1 immediately and you agree to pay them 50% of the profit on your winnings (that is, $0.50 if Belle wins, and $4 if Jeb wins). What should you do? Answer this question by: a) Creating a decision tree for this scenario, making sure you label all branches and include all probabilities and consequences. b) Solving the decision tree using EMV and stating the optimal…
5. The manager of a fast-food restaurant featuring hamburgers is adding salads to the menu. If they choose to include a salad bar (i.e., the MAKE option), it will cost $14,000 in annual fixed costs for the leased equipment and added employee, and $1 per salad variable cost. If they choose to have pre-made salads (i.e., the BUY option), it will cost $3 per salad. The manager expects to sell 7,500 salads per year. What is the make or buy quantity (i.e., the breakeven point between making vs. buying)?

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