6. Consider the following time series data: Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Value 24 13 20 12 19 23 15 a. Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists in the data? b. Develop a three-week moving average for this time series. Compute MSE and a fore- cast for Month 8. C. Use a = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for Month 8. d. Compare the three-week moving average forecast with the exponential smoothing forecast using a = 0.2. Which appears to provide the better forecast based on MSE? Use trial and error to find a value of the exponential smoothing coefficient a that results in a smaller MSE than what you calculated for a = 0.2. e.

Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Chapter13: Regression And Forecasting Models
Section13.7: Exponential Smoothing Models
Problem 26P: The file P13_26.xlsx contains the monthly number of airline tickets sold by the CareFree Travel...
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6.
Consider the following time series data:
Month
1
2
3
4
5 6
7
Value
24
13
20
12
19
23
15
a. Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists in the data?
b. Develop a three-week moving average for this time series. Compute MSE and a fore-
cast for Month 8.
C. Use a = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series. Compute
MSE and a forecast for Month 8.
d. Compare the three-week moving average forecast with the exponential smoothing
forecast using a = 0.2. Which appears to provide the better forecast based on MSE?
Use trial and error to find a value of the exponential smoothing coefficient a that results
in a smaller MSE than what you calculated for a = 0.2.
e.
Transcribed Image Text:6. Consider the following time series data: Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Value 24 13 20 12 19 23 15 a. Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists in the data? b. Develop a three-week moving average for this time series. Compute MSE and a fore- cast for Month 8. C. Use a = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for Month 8. d. Compare the three-week moving average forecast with the exponential smoothing forecast using a = 0.2. Which appears to provide the better forecast based on MSE? Use trial and error to find a value of the exponential smoothing coefficient a that results in a smaller MSE than what you calculated for a = 0.2. e.
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