FINAL PAPER 202142055 OGBOLE OCHE REVIEWED second edition

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QUESTION: DISCUSS HOW THE RUSSIAN INVASION OF UKRAINE HAS AFFECTED THE THREAT OF THERMONUCLEAR WAR AND INCLUDE A DISCUSSION OF HOW NUCLEAR DETERRENCE APPLIES OR DOES NOT APPLY TO THE CONFLICT. NAME: OCHE OGBOLE STUDENT NUMBER: 202142055 DATE: 16/11/2023

INTRODUCTION The invasion of Ukraine by Russia, which started in February 2022, has not only developed into a localised conflict but also into a turning point that is changing the face of global security. The war's ongoing course raises a terrifying question that will live on throughout history: How has this geopolitical crisis affected the threat of thermonuclear war? With the help of several critically analysed articles that break down the complexities of the conflict and the significance of nuclear deterrence, this essay aims to investigate the complex aspects of this question. The battleground is decorated with the backdrop of accepted beliefs and doctrines, most notably the idea of nuclear deterrence. Nuclear deterrence, which has historically been linked to the Cold War, uses the real threat of catastrophic retaliation to scare off possible enemies. Nonetheless, the current conflict in Ukraine has evolved into a modern laboratory for evaluating the effectiveness and constraints of this age-old idea. Reassessing how nuclear weapons influence the actions of both nuclear and non-nuclear states becomes necessary as the conflict heats up. The debate surrounding the conflict centres on the idea of nuclear deterrence, which is closely related to major powers' possession of nuclear weapons. Russia and the other five NPT- permitted nuclear weapon states have historically used their arsenals as instruments of strategic influence (Sinovets and Adérito, 2022). However, the paradoxes arising from Russia's aggression against Ukraine cast doubt on the conventional wisdom surrounding nuclear deterrence. The examined articles for this essay analyse the subtleties of these paradoxes, providing insight into how the architecture of international security is changing.

The conflict in Ukraine has accelerated the conversation about military strategy, extending it into the fields of political psychology and game theory. As the conflict puts the fundamentals of nuclear deterrence to the test, leaders' words, gestures, and decision-making procedures are scrutinised. The carefully examined articles highlight the nuances of the language used by Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has blurred the lines between conventional and nuclear warfare by invoking red lines and historical precedents out of a relentless determination. The idea of "aggressive actualization" or "offensive deterrence" is introduced by the conflict's changing terrain (Sinovets and Adérito, 2022). The limitations of traditional nuclear deterrence paradigms are highlighted by Russia's attempts to establish anti-access and area denial capabilities along its borders, as well as the intricate interplay of political and military strategies. The question that emerges as non-nuclear states like Ukraine traverse this dangerous terrain is whether the threat of thermonuclear war can be used as a deterrent or if it will become less effective in the face of unconventional warfare tactics. In addition, the articles under analysis explore the conflict's geopolitical aftermath, which goes beyond the battleground. They investigate the use of secondary sanctions and possible economic deterrence as tools to prevent nuclear-armed states from escalating their conflict to thermonuclear levels. This economic dimension adds a new dimension to the discussion of nuclear deterrence by demonstrating how the world economies are intertwined and influence the actions of countries facing crises. To understand the complexities of the conflict and its implications for the evolving threat of thermonuclear war, we will navigate the nuanced analyses offered by the reviewed articles in the following sections of this essay. This exploration aims to

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expose the hitherto unseen dangers and obstacles that the Russia-Ukraine conflict presents to the precarious balance of international security. ANALYSIS The invasion of Ukraine by Russia has put the idea of nuclear deterrence under intense scrutiny and called into question its traditional applications in modern conflicts. Nuclear deterrence, which has historically relied on major powers having nuclear weapons, requires the legitimacy of a devastating retaliatory threat to deter possible enemies. The efficacy of nuclear deterrence, particularly in dissuading states lacking nuclear weapons, is becoming less certain as the conflict progresses. A complex interplay of geopolitical, strategic, and psychological factors characterises the nuanced and evolving phenomenon of applying nuclear deterrence in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Although the foundation of conventional nuclear deterrence theory is the idea that the presence of nuclear weapons acts as a credible threat to deter aggression, the way this conflict is playing out calls into question the ease with which these ideas can be applied. Russia has significantly lost credibility because of its repeated use of deterrent threats, as demonstrated by its annexation of Ukrainian territory (Cheng, 2022) The annexation of Ukrainian territories is one example of how deterrent threats are frequently used, which has led to a paradox. For nuclear weapons to be tools of non-use, they must also continue to be credible threats. But Ukraine's ongoing testing of Russian deterrence has made the threat less potent, prompting military actions that go beyond the bounds of conventional nuclear deterrence. Furthermore, T.V. Paul introduced the concept of the "tradition of nuclear non-use," which holds that the possibility of nuclear use is undermined by several factors, including strategic considerations and the destabilising nature of nuclear weapons (Sinovets and Adérito, 2022).

This custom appears to undermine Russia's ability to deter a non-nuclear state in the event of a nuclear war with Ukraine. Finally, prospect theory applied to the situation demonstrates Ukraine's unwavering response to nuclear threats. In a war, the relative value of lost territory and sovereignty is greater than the relative value of gained territory. Ukraine's willingness to confront Russian deterrence on the battlefield and its resistance to nuclear coercion are both a result of this strong resolve (Cheng, 2022). First, I examine the "game of chicken," a symbolic idea drawn from game theory in which two players compete in a high-stakes match, each daring the other to give up preventing a disastrous result (Prisner, 2014). Both Russian President Putin and Ukrainian President Zelensky are caught up in the conflict between their two countries. Putin wants to win at any cost, which is why he uses nuclear threats to convey his unwavering resolve. On the other hand, Zelensky faces intense pressure not to yield Ukrainian territories occupied by Russia. This conundrum adds a psychological element to the battle, wherein commitment to strategic objectives, and feelings of shame and pride in one's country, and pride play important roles. Additionally, another layer of complexity is the "red lines" that Russia has established, especially about territories like Crimea and Donbas. These red lines represent potential breaking points for Russia, beyond which it might be forced to consider using nuclear weapons and break the nuclear taboo (Sinovets and Adérito, 2022). Given that most Russians supported the annexation of Crimea, the region is strategically and symbolically significant to Russia. Losing such territory could force Russia to threaten nuclear war, undermining established lines of deterrence and maintaining strategic stability. These complexities highlight how the conflict is dynamic and ever-changing, and how traditional

deterrence models might fall short in capturing the nuances of decision-making processes. The dynamic and ever-changing nature of the conflict makes a more nuanced understanding of the dynamics at work necessary, as it defies simple predictions. In addition to military concerns, leaders also must negotiate a complex environment with psychological, economic, and global variables. The complexity of modern conflicts may prove difficult for traditional deterrence models, which are based on Cold War paradigms, to adjust to. This emphasises the need for a more adaptable and multifaceted approach to strategic analysis and decision-making. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has significant global ramifications and adds a degree of unpredictability that affects many different areas. To fully comprehend these ramifications, it is necessary to consider both the short- and long-term potential impacts on the geopolitical environment worldwide. I shall explore some key aspects of the global implications and unpredictability associated with the conflict. First, the conflict affects commodity prices, trade relations, and the energy markets, upsetting global economic stability. Being a large energy exporter, Russia has a big influence on how the world's energy markets are shaped. The conflict's economic fallout and sanctions could influence economies much farther away from the front lines. How quickly and profoundly these economic ripples may spread is what makes them unpredictable. Secondly, humanitarian crises and mass migration are frequently brought on by armed conflicts. Numerous people have already been displaced significantly because of the crisis in Ukraine, both internally and externally. The variable aspect lies in the possibility that this relocation may give rise to both domestic and global predicaments, such as pressure on adjacent nations, a rise in the number of refugees, and humanitarian emergencies necessitating an international reaction.

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Furthermore, the article, "War against Ukraine: how to make deterrence and arms control work," examines the global implications and unpredictability of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine by highlighting the complexity of nuclear deterrence, emphasizing that its effectiveness is influenced by the broader context of arms control and diplomatic interactions. It critically evaluates the role of nuclear deterrence in the context of the Ukraine conflict, questioning whether it promotes or limits war. The discussion includes the erosion of arms control in Europe and the growing hegemonic conflicts, particularly between the U.S. and Russia (Hach and Sinovets, 2022). This erosion has led to an arms race and a disintegration of arms control policies, negatively impacting European security. Finally, Hellman examines historical instances of nuclear near misses, such as the Cuban Missile Crisis, to underscore the unpredictability and high stakes involved in nuclear deterrence. These examples illustrate the fine line between deterrence and the outbreak of nuclear war, highlighting the dangers of miscalculations and misjudgements in high-tension situations (Hellman, 2008). He highlights the difficulties and risks associated with depending solely on nuclear deterrence to preserve world peace and security, especially considering the Russia-Ukraine conflict and its ramifications for the entire world. Conclusion In conclusion, the world now finds itself in a complex and wildly unpredictable geopolitical situation with far-reaching effects because Russia invaded Ukraine. Several major themes emerge as we work through the complex dynamics of this conflict, influencing the conversation about the threat of thermonuclear war, the use of nuclear deterrence, and the ongoing crisis's global ramifications. The conflict is shadowed by the threat of thermonuclear war, which could

shake up accepted wisdom and bring in a period of extreme unpredictability. Russia's use of nuclear rhetoric and the possibility of unintentional escalation highlight how flimsy the current international order is. The interplay between conventional and nuclear capabilities is elucidated by the dynamics at play, adding a dangerous element to the geopolitical scene (Sinovets and Adérito, 2022). The idea of nuclear deterrence, which dates to the Cold War, faces many difficulties considering the situation between Russia and Ukraine. The selective effectiveness of Russia's nuclear deterrence strategy is the source of its paradox. Russia's nuclear threats seem less credible in dissuading Ukraine from going nuclear, even though they are deterring US and NATO interventions. (Ven Bruusgaard ,2020; Sinovets and Adérito, 2022). The Ukrainian determination, the nuclear non-use tradition, and the depletion of deterrent threats highlight the drawbacks of depending only on nuclear deterrence in a geopolitical environment that is changing quickly. There is a call to action as we consider the effects of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. A dedication to international norms, cooperation, and diplomacy become essential in negotiating the complexity of today's geopolitical environment. Strengthening international mechanisms for disarmament, peacekeeping, and the maintenance of international peace and security is imperative considering the potential for thermonuclear war. The international community must band together in the face of uncertainty to tackle the conflict's underlying causes, lessen its short- and long-term effects, and defend the values that underpin a safe and stable international order. The Russia-Ukraine conflict serves as a bellwether, putting diplomatic frameworks to the test and pressuring countries to chart a course towards a more

stable, cooperative, and secure international future. Building a foundation for enduring peace requires addressing the conflict's underlying causes. This calls for a thorough comprehension of the socioeconomic, geopolitical, and historical elements that have influenced the current crisis. It is crucial to take steps to ease underlying tensions, encourage communication, and encourage reconciliation between the parties involved. The mobilisation of diplomatic channels, regional powers, and international organisations is necessary to enable talks that tackle the issues causing the conflict and establish a foundation for enduring stability. Reference Cheng, Manqing. “The Ukraine Crisis: Causes, Conundrum and Consequences.” Journal of Social and Political Sciences 5, no. 2 (June 30, 2022). https://doi.org/10.31014/aior.1991.05.02.350. Hach, Sascha, and Polina Sinovets. “War against Ukraine: How to Make Deterrence and Arms Control Work.” PRIF BLOG, April 13, 2023. https://blog.prif.org/2023/04/13/war- against-ukraine-how-to-make-deterrence-and-arms-control-work/ . Hellman, Dr. Martin. Risk Analysis of Nuclear Deterrence . Palo Alto, California, USA, 2008. Prisner, Erich. Game Theory through Examples . American Mathematical Soc., 2014. Sinovets, Polina, and Adérito Vicente. Are nuclear weapons ineffective in deterring non-nuclear weapon states ..., December 19, 2022. https://frstrategie.org/sites/default/files/documents/publications/notes/2022/202242.pdf. Ven Bruusgaard, Kristin. “Russian Nuclear Strategy and Conventional Inferiority.” Journal of Strategic Studies 44, no. 1 (October 14, 2020): 3–35. https://doi.org/10.1080/01402390.2020.1818070 .

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FINAL PAPER 202142055 OGBOLE OCHE REVIEWED second edition

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