PHIL 125 Practice 3
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University of British Columbia *
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125
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Philosophy
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Feb 20, 2024
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2/16/24, 9.05 PM E1 Practice 3 Probability Review: PHIL 125 003 2023W2 Introduction to Scientific Reasoning E1 Practice 3 Probability Review Due Feb 2 at 11:59p.m. Points 11 Questions 10 Time Limit None Attempt History Attempt Time Score LATEST Attempt 1 28 minutes 10 out of 11 () Correct answers are hidden. Score for this quiz: 10 out of 11 Submitted Feb 2 at 7:18p.m. This attempt took 28 minutes. Question 1 1/ 1 pts 2 3 Lk 3 %) - : e ) ! > 83 I 4 X » & & * ' v 2 54 &5 Ty B Last Rl Emn f *7. ol B LT -,; ¥ - L, e - iy, R BN A T BT N A | : Population distribution for one die. Suppose a single die is fair. This means that the chance of any one of its faces showing up is the same as the chance of any other. What probability formula represents the English: What is the chance of 6 showing up on one roll? prob(die_shows 1) =1/6 prob(die_shows 2) = 1/6 prob(die_shows_3) = 1/6 prob(die_shows 4)=1/6 prob(die_shows 5)=1/6 prob(die_shows 6) = 1/6 Question 2 1/1 pts https://canvas.ubc.ca/courses/132235/quizzes/708106 1/6
2/16/24, 9:05 PM E1 Practice 3 Probablllty Review: PHIL 125 003 2023W2 Introduction to Scientific Reasoning : - 8 AL "\ Pr AL ; B - ® - " ’ et 2 , | . m | ‘ i. m ‘ ' - i . J . A A 1 - ‘ .l A "~ - " ™ Roay " .I ‘ s " VI, e - N T - 3 .6‘ ot _‘!. L » [} . f;' ' ‘* ~: o ,‘r t” ’% r' : : - er‘ Tt o ) v | : K 15 )_- Sk ) 258772 : d - . - PRy g L a» rye - Las N \! 2 fe " - :. - ,:,’-‘ 1, ’9 y ‘-. - - . 1 ;. ’ A "x, ‘ - "N F L ’ . £ BN 3 i v Gy N - - / < " 3 ’ Population distribution for bwo dice. First one in each pair is “A”, second one is "B” Suppose two die are fair. This means for each die the chance of any one of its faces showing up is the same as the chance of any other. What probability formula represents the English: What is the chance of both showing 2 on one roll of both? prob(die_ A _shows 2 AND die B_shows_2) prob(die_A _shows 2 OR die B shows 2) prob(die_A _shows 2 /die B shows 2) prob(die_ B _shows 2 /die_ A shows 2) Question 3 1/1 pts An urn contains exactly 50 blue marbles, 30 green marbles, and 20 yellow marbles. The probability or chance of drawing any one marble is the same as that of drawing any other marble. This is problem 2(a) exercise 9.2 in the textbook ACTFL. The chance or probability of drawing a not-yellow marble is 0.5 The chance or probability of drawing a not-yellow marble is 0.2 The chance or probability of drawing a not-yellow marble is 1.0 The chance or probability of drawing a not-yellow marble is 0.0 https://canvas.ubc.ca/courses/132235/quizzes/708106 2/6
2/16/24, 9.05 PM E1 Practice 3 Probability Review: PHIL 125 003 2023W2 Introduction to Scientific Reasoning None of the above Question 4 2/ 2pts 5 players enter a tennis tournament. They are Andre, Boris, Gabriela, Monica, and Steffi. According to one expert the probability of Gabriela winning is 25%, the probability of Steffi winning is 15%, and all the others have an equal chance of winning. What is the probability that Andre wins? prob(Andre_wins)=0.20 prob(Andre_wins)=0.40 prob(Andre_wins)=0.60 None of the above There isn't enough information to determine this. Question 5 1/1 pts https://canvas.ubc.ca/courses/132235/quizzes/708106 3/6
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2/16/24, 9:05 PM E1 Practice 3 Probability Review: PHIL 125 003 2023W2 Introduction to Scientific Reasoning wooden plastic BB PO Assimne that if you pick an object out of this world at random, then vou are equally likely to get one object as any other. The objects aren't sorted or comparmmemalized; they are all mixed together. The graph is only meart to show how many of each kind there are. Assimne that nothing can be both plastic and wood or more than one color. Is the probability of picking item #1 the same as the probability of picking item #50 instead? (Hint: Is there an item #50 in this world? What is the probability of picking item #507) prob(#1) = prob(#50) prob(#1) > prob(#50) prob(#1) < prob(#50) None of the above Question 6 1/1 pts wooden plastic white @@@ blue . Assume that if you pick an object ot of this world at random, then you are equally likely to get one object as any other. The objects aren't sorted or comparmmemalized; they are all mixed together. The graph is only meant to show how many of each kind there are. Assimne that nothing can be both plastic and wood or more than one color. If you pick an item at random from the above world, what is the probability that it is not plastic? prob(not-plastic)=0 prob(not-plastic)=50/100 prob(not-plastic)=1 prob(not-plastic)=30/100 https://canvas.ubc.ca/courses/132235/quizzes/708106 4/6
2/16/24, 9.05 PM E1 Practice 3 Probability Review: PHIL 125 003 2023W2 Introduction to Scientific Reasoning None of the above Question 7 1/1 pts wooden plastic BB PO Assimne that if you pick an object out of this world at random, then vou are equally likely to get one object as any other. The objects aren't sorted or comparmmemalized; they are all mixed together. The graph is only meart to show how many of each kind there are. Assimne that nothing can be both plastic and wood or more than one color. If you pick an item at random from the above world, what is the probability that it is both red and white? prob(red AND white)=1 prob(red AND white)=10/40 prob(red AND white)=0 None of the above Question 8 1/1 pts Many stores run what are sometimes called "secret sales" or "scratch sales". The Bay often does this. Shoppers get cards that state how big a discount they will. But the amount is hidden until they have made a purchase and scratched the covering off the printed discount percentage. The store is required to reveal the distribution of discounts in terms of a probability. Is the following probability assignment legitimate”? 10% off |20% off [30% off |50% off prob = 0.5|prob = 0.3|prob = 0.2 |prob = 0.1 Based on Bock et al Stats p 286 Yes it's legal or legitimate. It breaks none of the rules for assignments of probability values. No it's not legal or legitimate. It breaks one of the rules for assignments of probability values. https://canvas.ubc.ca/courses/132235/quizzes/708106 5/6
2/16/24, 9:05 PM E1 Practice 3 Probability Review: PHIL 125 003 2023W2 Introduction to Scientific Reasoning IncorrectQuestion 9 0/1pts Abby, Deborah, Sam, and Roberto work in a company's PR department. Their employer has to choose two of them to send to a conference in Paris. In order to avoid unfairness the employer will choose at random. Thus, no one will have a bigger chance of going to Paris than anyone else. When selecting two the employer can be imagined to select at random one person to go out of the four and then selecting at random one other person to go out of the remaining employees. Suppose someone is selected as the first choice; it's not Deborah. Then is Deborah's being selected out of the remaining employees dependent or independent of who was selected first? Based on Moore, Basic...Statistics 2nd edn, p 233 It's dependent It's independent It's both dependent and independent It's neither dependent nor independent Question 10 1/1 pts Sometimes when surgeons perform leg or arm operations they operate on the wrong limb (Orlando Sentinel Star newspaper, 31 Jul 1981). Suppose two surgeons (surgeon A and surgeon B) each are able to choose the right leg or arm with a probability of 0.80 for the first operation of the day. Although each surgeon's choices are independent of the other's choices, they are not completely independent of their own previous choices. In particular, a mistake on an operation reduces the chance or probability of another mistake to 0.05. On the other hand, a correct limb choice doesn't change the chance of a mistake on the next surgery; the probability of a mistake stays the same as what it was on the previous operation. Suppose one of the surgeons -- say A -- performs two operations on a day. Suppose the surgeon chose the proper limb on the first operation. What is the chance the surgeon selects the wrong limb on the second operation? prob(NOT A_correct_2nd/A_correct_1st) = 0.95 prob(NOT A_correct_2nd/A_correct_1st) = 0.80 prob(NOT A_correct_2nd/A_correct_1st) = 0.20 prob(NOT A_correct_2nd/A_correct_1st) = 0.05 Quiz Score: 10 out of 11 https://canvas.ubc.ca/courses/132235/quizzes/708106 6/6
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