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INTL508: Intelligence Analysis
Professor Dosemagen
March 31, 2024
Video Essay
Question 1:
Secretary Perry expressed his reservations about Russia, drawing comparisons between the country's perilous and grim history during the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the enormous opportunity for the current situation to spiral into a civil war-like struggle. Russia did not experience a civil war, but he indicated that the absence of a reliable and effective monetization process for public assets caused an economic downturn in the country. American officials presented a Marshall-style plan to help a suffering Russia overcome its difficulties. Under the plan, the United States would give Russia financial support to rebuild its crumbling infrastructure where it was essential, but in failure state. The post-World War II European countries received an analogous proposal in the form of the Marshall Plan. To foster respect and stronger ties between the two nations, Secretary Perry went on to say that during his time in office, he attempted to include Russia in the Western economic and security partnership.
The United States further suggested combined peacekeeping drills with the countries of the old Warsaw Pact: the former Treaty of Friendship, Co-operation and Mutual Assistance (Cavendish, 2005), and it is notable that they moved to even request the participation of Russian officials to The North Atlantic Treaty Organization conferences. Along with these cooperative military drills, the United States and Russia included a Russian unit into an American corps in Bosnia. The successful removal of over four thousand nukes in the former USSR was a
significant milestone in their relationship. The U.S.-Russian relationship peaked during those periods, says Secretary Perry. On top of that, he shared a photo that captured the pride of an accomplishment carried out in unity among America, Russia, and the Ukraine. Unfortunately, the positive ties between the United States and Russia were short-lived. The initial growth of the NATO alliance to leading up to Russian boundaries was a key aspect that appears to have played a big role in the decline in ties between both nations beyond the height of the Cold War. According to Secretary Perry's viewpoint, this is one of the explanations as to why the American and Russian partnership has suffered. The Russians perceived United States deployment of ballistic missile defense systems alongside the Russian border as an existential threat to their nuclear reserve. He also asserted that he felt the United States would play an active role in a color movement with the intention of toppling Vladimir Putin in Russia in 2012, when he restored his leadership. The American government's activities were primarily to blame for the strained tensions between them and Russia. Vladimir Putin further applied these acts as rationale for his attempts to bring the former USSR's power back. It seems that the country was very fond of the acquisition of Crimea and the threats made against Ukraine, other European nations, and the United States of America. The Russian drive to reassemble its arsenal of nuclear devices was among the primary moves that American officials saw as posing an imminent danger. American officials were also very troubled and uneasy by the Russian speech that claimed they were opposed to the "no first use" policy and would instead use weapons of mass destruction if needed. To top it off, Arushi Singh (2023, 35) states that the Soviet Union's no-first-use commitment was blatantly ignored by Russia in 1993, highlighting the importance of nuclear arsenal in its defense and safety measures. This policy declares that a State will not use nuclear
weapons first, even when it possesses them and intends to keep developing them to prevent nuclear strikes (Schneider 2020, 164).
Question 4:
As North Korea has since acquired weapons of mass destruction and is putting up an absurd attitude concerning their practice, Secretary Perry argued that his initiatives to create a non-nuclear North Korea had backfired. The possibility of an arms race is recognized so the reality is that the United States and North Korea are not moving toward a resolution. In the Asian
Pacific area, North Korea has emerged as one of the United States' principal opponents. In addition to being a nuclear-armed nation with an unstable government, North Korea is a problematic partner both China and its regional aspirations. One of the primary objectives of the United States was to avert North Korea and South Korea from engaging in warfare and also to prevent North Korea from falling into domestic turmoil which could enable renegade countries to seize control of their nuclear facilities. Along with ongoing hacking, weaponry, and missile tests, North Korea claims that its nuclear-powered missiles are now capable of reaching the United States borders, placing major cities like Los Angeles, Seattle, and San Francisco within range (Center for Preventive Action, 2024). The boundary separating North and South Korea is among of the most heavily fortified in the world, featuring more than a million North Korean soldiers positioned inside in alongside over a million South Korean and American forces (Center for Preventative Action, 2024). North Korea also persists in openly developing extended ballistic missile defense systems and capacities, in infringing on American security committee regulations. To confirm and certify the safety, protection, efficacy, and preparedness of the weapon system, North Korea has carried out sixteen missile tests, a few of which involved ICBM testing (Kim, 2015). Additionally, Secretary
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Perry said that at an exchange with a North Korean general in the 1990s, the general stated that the country planned to strengthen its arsenal of weapons of mass destruction as a defense against the United States. According to Secretary Perry, North Korea's belligerent nuclear position towards the United States was prompted by American bombs of Serbia during that period. North Korea has not been greatly impacted by the many limitations imposed on it since China offers them a reliable supply of provisions and petroleum-based products. Security for the state and the continued existence of the government are the primary grounds for North Korea's growing nuclear danger. By developing its missile program, North Korea's regime can thwart an American nuclear attack and dissuades Washington from providing assurances of safety to its partners in the Asian continent that would require the deployment of weapons of mass destruction. According to Kim and Puri (2017), North Korean leaders has apparently mastered the art of using its arsenal of nuclear threat to influence the rest of the world. The inconsistent attitude and tactics used by North Korean officials to legitimize their armed forces advancements
is a key factor that may lead experts to view North Korea and its operations with preexisting prejudices.
References Cavendish, Richard. “The Warsaw Pact.” History Today, May 5, 2005. https://www.historytoday.com/archive/months-past/warsaw-pact. Center for Preventive Action. “North Korea Crisis | Global Conflict Tracker.” Council on Foreign
Relations, February 9, 2024. https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/north-
korea-crisis. Kim, Chong Woo, and Samir Puri. “Beyond the 2017 North Korea Crisis: Deterrence and Containment.” Asan Institute for Policy Studies, 2017. http://www.jstor.org/stable/resrep08093.
Kim, Suk Hi. “The Survival of North Korea: A Case for Rethinking the U.S.-North Korea Nuclear Standoff.” North Korean Review
11, no. 1 (2015): 101–13. http://www.jstor.org/stable/43908958
.
Perry, William J. “(Video) A National Security Walk around the World.” YouTube, February 12, 2016. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tp2B9cJ6MH0. Schneider, Jacquelyn. 2020. “A Strategic Cyber No-First-Use Policy? Addressing the US Cyber Strategy Problem.”
The Washington Quarterly
43 (2): 159–75. https://doi.org/10.1080/0163660X.2020.1770970.
Singh, Arushi. “Russia’s Nuclear Strategy: Changes or Continuities.” Journal of Advanced Military Studies
14, no. 2 (August 31, 2023): 34–48. https://doi.org/10.21140/mcuj.20231402002.