19 - Beer Game Debrief and Bullwhip Effect

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University of Washington *

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301

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Industrial Engineering

Date

Feb 20, 2024

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pdf

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4

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Bullwhip Effect Outline: 1. Beer Game Review 2. The Bullwhip Effect Phenomenon 3. Possible Causes and Solutions of Bullwhip Effect 1. Beer Game Review What’s the demand you (each player) see during the game? Did your team have a strategy in place? Did it work? Why or why not?
2. How Realistic Is This? – The Bullwhip Effect Bullwhip effect is the variation amplification effect from downstream to upstream along the supply chain. Examples Pampers diaper Campbell soup
Motorola, Intel, Cisco Barilla Any observations during the pandemic? Consequences? Counter-measures? Caterpillar (WSJ 2010): - Even if demand is flat, it would need to boost production by 10%-15%, suppliers would have to increase output by 30%-40% - If it boosts production by 15%, many suppliers would need to more than double their shipment - Caterpillar is well aware of this bullwhip effect Last fall, CEO talked about this to investors Two executives went around to 500 suppliers to explain a bullwhip was likely coming A supplier: “they were still dropping orders, but here they were asking about increases…”
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3. Possible Causes and Solutions of Bullwhip Effect and Remedies Irrational behavior? Rational behaviors Cause of Bullwhip Information Sharing Channel Alignment Operational Efficiency -- Understanding system dynamics -- Vendor-managed -- Lead-time reduction -- Use point-of-sale data inventory (VMI) -- Electronic data interchange -- Discount for -- Echelon-based (EDI) information sharing inventory control -- Internet -- Consumer direct -- Computer-assisted ordering (CAO) -- EDI -- Discount for truck- -- Reduction in fixed cost -- Internet ordering load assortment of ordering by EDI or -- Delivery appointments electronic commerce -- Consolidation -- CAO -- Logistics outsourcing -- Continuous replenishment -- Everday low price program (CRP) (EDLP) -- Everyday low cost (EDLC) -- Activity-based costing -- Sharing sales, capacity -- Allocation based and inventory data on past sales Order Batching Price Fluctuations Demand Forecast Update Shortage Gaming