CJ 681 Final Project
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Dec 6, 2023
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CJ-681 Final Project
Executive Summary:
The National Capital Region Threat Intelligence Consortium (NTIC)has identified the potential
threat of a lone wolf actor with Hezbollah affiliation conducting a terror attack within the
Washington D.C. area. The affiliating organization, Hezbollah was founded in 1982 and has
highlighted, through manifestos, the eradication of Israel, liberating Palestine, and driving out
Western influence within the MENA region. Hezbollah has continued to gain political and
military power within Lebanon. In addition, Hezbollah has continuously pushed propaganda via
media in hopes of radicalizing lone wolf actors across the globe. As social media continues to
grow, the threat of these attack reaching the United States has increased.
The 2018 National Strategy for Counterterrorism of the United States of America has
highlighted short- and long-term goals to combat terrorism both within the United States and
abroad. However, within this report, diplomacy has been recommended. If this recommendation
is utilized, the United States could begin developing new allies and working towards the
common goal of eliminating organized terrorism. The NTIC is able to utilize the Global
Terrorism Database for data along with global benchmarking to accurately depict how diplomacy
talks are proceeding, along with strategic information on countries, which would allow for the
NTIC to evaluate and make recommendations to the federal government.
Scanning;
As the director of the National Capital Region Threat Intelligence Consortium (NTIC) located in
the District of Columbia. The NTIC’s primarily takes an all-crimes, all-hazard approach. In
addition, our fusion center works in partnership with local, state, and federal stakeholders in
order to communicate and share critical intelligence related to domestic and foreign terrorism.
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Recently, the NTIC has a growing concern of a lone wolf attack from an individual associated
with the terror organization Hezbollah, which is rooted deeply within Lebanon, both politically
and militarily. Our primary concern is the growth and spread of propaganda, given the ease one
can access such information. As propaganda continues to take hold of individuals across the
world, the concern of radicalization and the threat of an attack within the D.C. area becomes of
concern.
Analysis:
1.
Background Information
Hezbollah was established following the Lebanese Civil War. The organization strongly opposes
Israel along with Western influence within the Middle East. Hezbollah, based in Lebanon, is seen
as a Shiite Muslim political party. The organization follows strict ideology which stems from the
Iranian Revolution. The revolution “called for the creation of a religious Muslim government
that would represent the oppressed and downtrodden” (Jewish Virtual Library, n.d.). Throughout
the years, Hezbollah has earned the reputation as being considered “a state within a state”, this,
primarily due to the fact the organization has a deep security apparatus, political influence, and
social services network within Lebanon and beyond (Robinson, 2020). Hezbollah has seen
structural changes within the organization since the establishment in 1982. Currently, the
organizational hierarch is comprised of Shura Council on top with five subordinate specialized
councils (Hezbollah, n.d.). The five specialized councils include Jihad, Parliamentary, Political,
Judicial, and Executive (Hezbollah, n.d.).
2.
Methods and Tactics
Hezbollah has openly carried out terror attacks across the world, working towards their goal of
establishing political leverage. Some examples include bombings on the Israeli embassy and
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AMIA Jewish Centers in Argentina, along with car bombings outside the Israeli Embassy in
London and even assassinating a South Lebanon Army Western Brigade Commander
(Jewish Virtual Library, n.d.). Hezbollah operatives have been arrested in countries across the
world such as South America and the Caribbean. Given the ease of the spread of propaganda,
organizations such as Hezbollah will continue to find ways to promote propaganda. This
propaganda will allow for the radicalization of individuals across the globe in hopes of them
carrying out a terror attack in the name of Hezbollah.
Hezbollah incorporates elements of intelligence collecting while planning and executing
terror attacks. Evidence of this was seen in 1997 when “Hezbollah was found to be collecting
intelligence on the U.S. embassy in Cyprus” (Jewish Virtual Library, n.d.). While Hezbollah is
based and operates within Lebanon, their propaganda promotion and radicalization techniques
help their efforts to obtain intelligence. For example, in the 1990’s Hezbollah recruited
Palestinians studying in Russia who then collected intelligence on United States and Israeli
targets (Jewish Virtual Library, n.d.). In some cases, a terror attack isn’t able to be fully carried
out or planned for. In this case, Hezbollah will share their gathered intelligence and share these
findings with other known terror organizations.
Hezbollah’s primary weapon is the use of explosive devices. Modern day suicide
bombings were brought forward by Hezbollah in 1983. To this day, suicide bombings continue to
be a large threat and has spread to numerous other terror organizations. Hezbollah received
international attention for their use of suicide bombings. The official count for successful
Hezbollah suicide bombings is far too long to highlight within this report. However, one example
in 2012 was “Hezbollah operative blew himself up on an Israeli tour bus in Burgas, Bulgaria”
(Jewish Virtual Library, n.d.). Hezbollah continues to fight Israeli “aggression” in a traditional
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war fashion. However, Hezbollah’s specialty and large threat to the United States continues to be
the use of explosive devices via suicide attacks.
3.
Motivations
The underlying motivations behind the organization’s terror actions can be seen on the individual
level as “suicide terrorists do not exist in a vacuum but are consistently impacted by the world
around them” (Homeland Security Affairs, 2018). To further this explanation, society, family,
and individual circumstances often times are the underlying factors and motivations as to why
individuals radicalize and carry out attacks, within the name of Hezbollah. These terror attacks
cause “large-scale casualties and negatively influence public morale” (Homeland Security
Affairs, 2018).
Radicalization:
1.
Ideology
Shortly after the establishment of Hezbollah, the organization’s goal in 1985 was to destroy
Israel and expel Western influence from the Middle East, including Lebanon. As Hezbollah
progressed and became influential in Lebanon, the organization became rooted in Lebanese
politics. In 2009, with more political control, the organization released a manifesto which
pointed towards “national unity, denouncing sectarianism, and not singling out Islamic
governance as the only option for Lebanon’s future” (Center for International security and
Cooperation, n.d.). While this manifesto highlighted different aspects, compared to the 1980’s
the organization did not change their belief in destroying Israel, opposition towards the United
States, and liberating Palestine.
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2.
Primary Countries
Hezbollah largely recruits individuals domestically within Lebanon. Over the years however,
Hezbollah’s reach has extended internationally. For example, Hezbollah has large recruitment
operations in the MENA region along with establishing themselves in Southeast Asia, such as
Indonesia. While these are the primary areas where individuals are recruited from, Hezbollah
uses social media to promote and radicalize individuals across the globe, including the United
States.
3.
Types of People
Internally, Hezbollah relies on: individual’s religious devotion, opposition to Israel, and devotion
to Shiite values (Immigration and Refugee Board of Canada, Ottawa, 2013). In more recent
times, Hezbollah has made exceptions, allowing for the recruitment of non-Muslims and Sunnis
to the organization. As Hezbollah continues to allow virtually anyone into the organization, the
risks of terror attacks continue to escalate, especially within the United States.
4.
Recruitment Efforts
Within Lebanon, Hezbollah recruits young Lebanese children early, in order to begin radicalizing
them at a young age. The program is known as Mahdi Scouts. This program allows Hezbollah to
teach the youth about Shiite and Hezbollah ideology. Throughout the program, the youth are
required to pledge their support and allegiance to Hezbollah (Immigration and Refugee Board of
Canada, Ottawa, 2013). As the youth grow within the Mahdi Scouts program, they eventually
graduate. These individuals then enter the Hezbollah organization as new recruits. Additionally,
in Lebanon Hezbollah operates summer camps, field trips, and religious holiday programs
(Immigration and Refugee Board of Canada, Ottawa, 2013). Internationally, Hezbollah utilizes
social media extensively in order to broadcast their propaganda and advance radicalization
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within individuals. Hezbollah is able to accomplish such pronounced and readily available
propaganda through accounts and organizations who back Hezbollah.
Role of the Media:
1.
Terrorist Organization
Hezbollah has taken a large step towards growing their social media operations. While Hezbollah
doesn’t have official social media accounts, they do have many sponsors and partners. One
example is that of Al Manar, which is a news company that supports Hezbollah. Often times Al
Manar will spread Hezbollah propaganda on their Twitter. Hezbollah’s use of social media to
spread propaganda has been described by Christopher Burgess (2017) as ‘Hezbollah’s use of
social networks is like that of a company trying to generate support and interest for its point of
view of product” (Burgess, 2017). Social media is used as a propaganda and recruitment tool in
order to allow international recruitment within the organization.
Hezbollah’s targeted audience is whoever could become a potential recruit, given
Hezbollah now allows Sunni and non-Muslims within the organization. Apart from mainstream
social media, Hezbollah recruiters may also utilize apps such as Telegram and KIK, which are
favorites of terror organizations. In order to disseminate propaganda, Hezbollah partners with pro
Hezbollah groups and pages. For example, YouTube videos have been published featuring
Hezbollah militates toting a gun and practicing kidnapping Israeli soldiers, with the message
“this is how we kill you” (Frenkel, 2019).
2.
Public’s Perception
Numerous countries, including the United States have labeled Hezbollah as a terrorist
organization. However, many countries have yet to do so. The United States has continued to
highlight negatively the attacks Hezbollah has carried out across the world, along with
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highlighting the organizations destructive views towards Israel. However, in Lebanon and many
other eastern countries, Hezbollah is positively viewed. In Lebanon, a judge attempted to block
media from reporting any criticism on Hezbollah (Arab News, n.d.).
Given Hezbollah is a terrorist organization, the media will negatively view anything from
Hezbollah, regarding United States media. Historically speaking, Western media pushes the
general public to be fearful of Hezbollah. For example, often articles will point towards
Hezbollah not being just a MENA regional problem. An example of an article is “Hezbollah kills
Americans too. Until 2001 it had killed more Americans than any other terror organization”
(Bryen, 2019). In the West, media has shaped the public bias negatively towards the
organization. Whereas to the East, media often promotes and highlights Hezbollah in a positive
way.
3.
Counterterrorism Efforts
Social media companies are able to examine and ban organizations profiles and posts. For
example, “Facebook and Twitter accounts belonging to Hezbollah have been closed, the
Lebanese terror groups said Saturday” (Staff, 2018). Social media companies assist in
counterterrorism efforts by reporting terror threats to the respectful federal agency and by
banning accounts. The banning of accounts helps limit the spread of propaganda and potential
recruitment.
Current Strategies:
1.
Current Counterterrorism Strategy
The most current National Strategy for Counterterrorism of the United States of America is that
from 2018. Within this strategy there are short- and long-term goals regarding counterterrorism.
Some specific examples of short-term goals found within the strategy are described as “our
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boarders and all ports of entry into the united states are secure against terrorists’ threats,
terrorism, and radical Islamist ideologies, and other extremist ideologies do not undermine the
American way of life” (Director of National Intelligence, 2018). Furthermore, the strategy
speaks about the importance of foreign partners addressing terrorism threats within their counties
in a way that does not jeopardize the United States interests. While Hezbollah was never
specifically names in this strategy, Hezbollah is considered a terrorism organization by the
United States.
Long term goals were also identified within the strategy. For example, eliminating
terrorist threats directed towards the United States (Director of National Intelligence, 2018). This
is classified as a long-term goal. In order to eliminate terrorist threats directed towards the United
States, prior short-term goals will need to be reached, along with working with foreign partners
to end organized terrorism across the globe.
2.
Strengths and Weaknesses
The 2018 National Strategy for Counterterrorism of the United States of America’s strengths and
weaknesses should be examined. Looking at the strengths, the strategy points to defeating
“radical Islamist terrorism, we must also speak out forcefully against a hateful ideology that
provides the breeding ground for violence and terrorism” (Director of National Intelligence,
2018). Social media has greatly benefited terror organizations such as Hezbollah. The
counterterrorism strategy speaks to condemning and mitigating propaganda from spreading along
with the radicalization of individuals. This was seen within the strategy, it spoke about
preventing and intervening in recruitment operations, which relates to Hezbollah.
While the strategy points towards mitigating propaganda from spreading and disbanding
recruitment operations, there is one major weakness. The strategy never highlights how this will
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actually happen. For example, there was no reference to developing a healthier relationship with
the federal government and social media companies. Additionally, there was no reference to how
the United States would disband recruitment operations. Moving forward, the next
administration should ensure to incorporate specific steps how to reach short- and long-term
goals, if applicable.
3.
Effective
This strategy took a hard power “America first” approach. This strategy spoke to “emphasizing
protection of the homeland, building strong borders, and strengthening security at all ports of
entry into the United States, protecting it’s critical infrastructure, and facilitating preparedness”
(Director of National Intelligence, 2018). Following 9/11, the United States has seen a rather low
number of terror attacks carried out. Following the publication of this strategy, there has also
been minimal terror attacks, regarding foreign organizations such as Hezbollah.
Strategy Recommendations:
1.
Changes or Enhancements
After reviewing the 2018 National Strategy for Counterterrorism of the United States of America
there is opportunity for changes and enhancements. Soft power should be incorporated.
Eliminating recruitment operations and mitigating propaganda will require assistance from
foreign partners and beyond. The strategy should speak on the importance of the United States
developing working relationships with countries that are not seen as allies to the U.S. The
incorporation of diplomacy would allow a deeper level of intelligence sharing in regard to
terrorism. If diplomacy is continuously used, overtime it would help eliminate organized
terrorism, propaganda, and recruitment operations across the globe. Diplomacy would also
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eliminate terror threats and attacks on the United States from organized terror groups, or lone
wolf attackers who are affiliated with terror organizations, such as Hezbollah.
2.
Protection
The incorporation of diplomacy would assist in eliminating terror threats, attacks, propaganda,
and recruitment operations across the globe. The United States would need to begin working
towards diplomacy in countries where Hezbollah has operations, such as MENA countries and
Southeast Asia. In return, this would decrease the risk of a lone wolf attacker who has become
radicalized by Hezbollah executing a terror attack within the Washington D.C. area.
3.
Global Impact
As the United States works towards developing foreign relationships through diplomacy,
counterterrorism efforts globally will benefit. Countries near the roots of terror organizations will
be able to better combat these organizations with the assistance of the United States. If
diplomacy and counterterrorism initiatives are successful, terrorism across the globe would
decrease, creating global resilience against terrorism.
4.
Implement These Changes
The NTIC will need continued guidance from the federal government and respectful agencies
such as the Department of Homeland Security. As the United States continues to establish
diplomacy abroad, the NTIC would require the addition of a separate branch within the fusion
center which handles intelligence from countries where counterterrorism initiatives are being
developed through the proposed incorporation of diplomacy. The NTIC may need to incorporate
different intelligence collection methods, depending on the country in which counterterrorism
efforts and intelligence is being shared with.
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5.
Use the Media
The NTIC would be able to assist in the monitoring of social media in order to support the
objectives of the counterterrorism strategy. The NTIC would be able to utilize HUMINT, IMINT,
and SIGINT intelligence types, along with multiple different intelligence collection types.
Intelligence found by the NTIC could be shared accordingly with local, tribal, and the federal
level in order to combat terrorism and continue to assist in the building of counterterrorism
partnerships across the globe. This would assist in the goal of eliminating terror threats, attacks,
propaganda, and recruitment operations.
Assessment:
1.
Desired Outcomes
Given the NTIC has a growing concern of a lone wolf attack from an individual associated with
the terror organization Hezbollah, the proposed improvements of the counterterrorism strategy
should assist in mitigating an attack. If the strategy incorporates elements of foreign diplomacy
and counterterrorism partnerships, terrorism threats and attacks should decrease. As described by
Haris Pesto (2010) “diplomacy therefore can play a major role in anti-terrorist activities in
general, whether in agreements, negotiations, or even mediation processes aimed at finding
peaceful anti-terrorist solutions” (Pesto, 2010). As the effects of diplomacy continue throughout
the upcoming years, the intended outcome is reduced organized terrorism groups being able to
spread propaganda and recruitment operations. In return, this will decrease potential attacks from
organized terror organizations and lone wolf attackers. This ultimately eliminates risks of
terrorism within the United States as well as in foreign countries where diplomacy has taken
place.
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2.
Data
In order to accurately gauge if the proposed counterterrorism strategy recommendations are
successful, data will be required. The NTIC will work with federal partners and agencies in order
to obtain intelligence and information regarding terror threats within the United States and
throughout the world. Additionally, the NTIC will utilize the Global Terrorism Database. This
data allows for the opportunity to assess if counterterrorism strategy recommendations are
successfully working. The Global Terrorism Database offers data on past and present terror
attacks. Ideally, moving forward with diplomacy, we should begin noticing less terror threats and
attacks. Throughout the world, but ideally within the United States and Washington D.C. area.
3.
Benchmarks
Benchmarking is a valuable tool in order to determine if the strategy is on track to achieve the
desired outcome. Global benchmarking would be the best type of benchmarking. Global
benchmarking will rely on “productive forms of indirect power to provoke reactions from target
actors with productive power (Broome, 2015). This type of benchmarking helps identify how
performance of specific actors compares to that of their peers (Broome, 2015). Additionally,
Global benchmarking assists in how actors have changed with the passage of times (Broome,
2015). Global benchmarking also assists in comparing rankings of high performing countries and
low performing countries. Some rankings and comparisons can include “human development,
corruption, freedom, state stability, credit, slavery, and business (Broome, 2015). As diplomacy
continues, the NTIC can benchmark initiatives and evaluate for future recommendations to
present to NTIC stakeholders and partners.
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Reference:
Arab News. (n.d.). Lebanon Judge Issues Media Ban against US Ambassador over Hezbollah
Comments. Retrieved from
https://www.arabnews.com/node/1696361/media
Bryen, S. (2019). Why is the US Training and Equipping the Lebanese Army? Retrieved from
https://thehill.com/opinion/international/459311-why-is-the-us-training-and-equipping-
the-lebanese-army
Broome, A. (2015). Governing the world at a distance: the practice of global benchmarking.
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