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Dec 6, 2023
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Uploaded by EarlRhinocerosPerson753
Anisha Hossain Megha
IDH 2010
Acquisition of Knowledge
Rebecca R. Todd
If a World War 3 takes place, what will be the economic
effects of it, especially on Bangladesh
FT 4--First-Year Thesis, Full Draft
Before getting into the specifics and research-related content of my thesis statement, I
want to explain my purpose for choosing this topic and my personal connection to this. I had
mentioned my mom in the studio session in class and how it was hard to say goodbye to her and
the trials and efforts it took to adjust to the changes that come with being an international student
in a new place thousands of miles away from home. When she returned to Bangladesh, the first
thing she mentioned was how inflation was presently at its worst in Bangladesh, and the
exchange rate from dollar to Bangladeshi taka was soaring daily at an alarming rate. A few days
later, I came across an article that discussed the possibilities of a third world war that could take
place. There is high tension among the world powers and the many wars that are taking place,
such as between Russia and the US, the combination of the Eurozone crisis and Russian
aggression, China and India also deal with population crises that could erupt unexpectedly in the
next fifty years, might add up, and a large-scale disaster might happen. Then the thought of
Bangladesh appeared to me – if World War 3 takes place, what will happen to my home country
and the family I left behind there? Will I have to back? Will my mom move to a safer place? And
finally, Bangladesh is currently not doing so well. How dire will the consequences be for the
country?
‘In recent months, global politics has shifted from focusing on globalization to
geopolitics; between the 2008 financial crash and the Spring of 2014, the themes of austerity,
investor confidence, rating agencies, Global Governance, and a gradual and incomplete
withdrawal of US military commitments in conflict zones dominated. However, since the US-
EU-backed coup in Ukraine triggered the crisis, with conflicts over the South China Seas Islands
and renewed US military commitments in West Asia thrown into the mix, economics appears to
have given way to politics. As a result, there is a renewed emphasis on geopolitical competition,
NATO aggressiveness, great power conflict, and competing hegemonic contenders (Colatrella,
2015).’
The Great War, also known as World War I, began in 1914 with the murder of Archduke
Franz Ferdinand of Austria. His assassination triggered a European war that lasted until 1918.
WWI started a financial panic. Fear of a massive sell-off by traders and the share trading method
at the time caused some major European stock exchanges to close (Taylor. August 1st, 2014). As
a result of this event, some desperate traders sold their shares in over-the-counter markets. As it
did in Germany, inflation negatively impacted citizens' savings plans because the purchasing
power of money was declining (D'Souza. January 08th, 2020).
The instability created in Europe by World War I (1914-18) laid the groundwork for
another international conflict, World War II, which erupted two decades later and proved even
more devastating. Adolf Hitler, the dictator of the Nazi Party, rose to power in an economically
and politically unstable Germany, rearmed the country, and signed strategic treaties with Italy
and Japan to further his ambitions of world dominance. Hitler's invasion of Poland in September
1939 prompted the United Kingdom and France to declare war on Germany, kicking off World
War II. The conflict would claim more lives and tear down more land and property over the next
six years than any previous conflict. World War II had similar economic consequences. World
War two had similar economic effects. However, the consequences were twice as harmful.
The previous two paragraphs give a small summary of what the previous world wars
were like. Moving forward, I would like to elaborate on what a future World War III (WW3),
specifically economically, might look like.
We are entering a new era in the history of warfare, with new and previously
unconsidered forms of action likely to emerge, including true cyber-warfare (not media
scaremongering) and new forms of economic war. A cyber-attack is a malicious action carried
out with the use of a computer to target computer information systems, infrastructures, computer
networks, personal computer devices, or security systems. Some examples of cyber warfare that
are occurring, especially in militaries of first world countries, are viruses, phishing, computer
worms and malware that can take down critical infrastructure, distributed denial-of-service
(DDoS) attacks that prevent legitimate users from accessing targeted computer networks or
devices, hacking and theft of necessary data from institutions, governments and businesses,
spyware or cyber espionage that results in the theft of information that compromises national
security and stability, ransomware that holds control systems or data hostage, and propaganda or
disinformation campaigns used to cause severe disruption or chaos.
A US drone recently killed Iran's top security commander, Qassem Soleimani, at the start
of 2020. It increased tensions between the United States and Iran and had an impact on the
Middle East region, particularly Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Libya. If tensions continue to rise, it
will force the United States and its allies to go to war with Iran and its partners. Ukraine,
Palestine, and Pakistan are three other potential hotspots for major powers and their allies. The
conflict between significant forces in the region could lead to the usage of nuclear weapons.
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Geography may play a notable role even further out, as good equatorial space launch
sites become sources of economic and military power. Existing powers may compete militarily to
control these sites, or the government that owns them may use them to assert itself on the global
stage. On the other hand, sea-based launch systems may eliminate the geographical issues
surrounding good space launch sites. The seas are contracting. As missiles become longer
ranged-and more precise, and sensors become more sensitive, there are fewer and fewer places
for a ship to hide. A land base can carry more ammunition and armor than anything that floats.
Admirals have long hesitated to bring their fleets within range of shore-based weapons. Even so,
a maritime conflict over equatorial territory is possible.
If WW3 occurs, whether due to geopolitical tensions, financial or cyber warfare, or other
potential causes, the economy of people far away will suffer significantly more than in previous
wars. According to history, the economic impact of WW3 may result in not only capital loss,
rising food prices, changes in living conditions, tariffs, or trade war but also the collapse of the
global monetary system and massive conversion to hard assets such as gold.
The effects of WW3 will especially be drastic on Bangladesh. Since it is a third-world
country and still not industrialized to the extent, first-world countries are, Bangladesh depends
majorly on agriculture, manual labor, and export. A possible WW3 will eventually cause the
shutdown of the stock market. The stock prices of different factories and brands in Bangladesh
will tank. Inflation will be the worst enemy – the currency exchange rate might even double.
Unemployment, as a result, will soar, and many people already stuck in poverty will lose their
jobs; a good chunk of the population will suffer from homelessness, and we might even have to
witness a high number of deaths. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) 's willingness to
support Bangladesh's request for a $4.5 billion bailout package over the next three years
confirms that the country's economy is facing a severe crisis (Riaz, November 2022)
There are numerous variables to consider. More importantly, nuclear wars can no longer
be won. Many European countries, including Russia, are nuclear-armed. It will be a mutually
assured demise. Kharkiv's Ukrainian Institute of Physics and Technology was the preeminent
facility for Soviet nuclear research before the Second World War (Jones, March 2019). The US
and its allies will use sanctions to avoid a direct military confrontation with Russia. In these
situations, the United States has limited options. However, we should be building a strong
military so that neighboring countries do not dare to engage in similar daring against us.
Bangladesh must exercise caution when dealing with both its Western and Russian counterparts.
Because our economy is still developing, sanctions may indirectly impact our nuclear-powered
electric megaprojects such as Support. We must diplomatically assert our interests and ensure
that our security is not jeopardized in any situation. Since Bangladesh is increasingly becoming a
manufacturing destination, it is likely to have a manufacturing order to demand war supply.
Ukraine is an IT services destination for the western world; there is a good chance those
customers will try to find new destinations, especially third-world countries whose primary
source of income is production, like Bangladesh.
The US was already attempting to establish a base in Chittagong, and if they managed to
do so, then Bangladesh would no doubt be dragged into WW3. If that happens, ties will be cut
with China and Russia, putting significant projects in the country on hold, such as the nuclear
power plant and the Padma bridge. Some noteworthy companies in automobile engineering,
smartphone production, and a few other industries will also leave. Bangladesh will no longer
receive military supplies from China or Russia. It will have to rely on used military equipment
from India (for a long time, India sold/donated used military equipment to Bangladesh at a price
close to its original cost).
However, after analyzing multiple resources, viewpoints, and debates, I have seen that
there is also a contrasting perspective that Bangladesh will not be affected by the war. It could be
more resource prosperous and geographically advantageous. Its geopolitical influence is barely
acknowledged by India and Myanmar, let alone NATO, China, or Russia. Bangladesh is
irrelevant to the superpowers, which is a blessing in disguise for the time being. The major
powers will compete for India's alliance, as opposed to Pakistan's alliance with China. It still
needs to be determined if Bangladesh will be a loser or a gainer from the war.
And yes, a world war is not child's play, but it is also not something to dismiss; it could
very well happen, as two world wars have already occurred, and the third is not in the realm of
imagination, but instead in the realm of reality. What is currently happening is a crisis, and the
Bangladeshi people will suffer economically until it is resolved. As a precaution, experts should
try to devise ways to prevent such a catastrophe in advance. Following World War I, World War
II, and the 9/11 attacks, there are numerous global and regional organizations ranging from
government to non-government to prevent conflict and encourage peace, implement
denuclearization and security treaties, and foster civil society development in the form of
academic, research, or think tank institutions. When a war occurs, the economic impact is almost
unavoidable. To avoid WW3, all parties, state, and non-state actors, must work together to build
communities and institutions that use the principles of democracy and the rule of law to create
and sustain peace.
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Reference and citations list:
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History.com Editors. (2009, October 29).
World War I
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History.com Editors. (2009, October 29).
World War II
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November 1, 2022, from https://www.history.com/topics/world-war-ii/world-war-ii-
history
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Hanna, K. T., Ferguson, K., & Rosencrance, L. (2021, May 21).
What is cyberwarfare?
SearchSecurity. Retrieved November 1, 2022, from
https://www.techtarget.com/searchsecurity/definition/cyberwarfare
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No man's sea: CSBA's lethal vision of future Naval War
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things you need to know
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The Effect of War on Economic Growth
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