Operations and Supply Chain Management 9th edition
9th Edition
ISBN: 9781119320975
Author: Roberta S. Russell, Bernard W. Taylor III
Publisher: WILEY
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Textbook Question
Chapter 8, Problem 3P
Nite-Site, Inc., manufactures image intensification devices used in products such as night-vision goggles and aviator’s night-vision imaging systems. The primary customer for these products is the U.S. military. The military requires that learning curves be employed in the bid process for awarding military contracts. The company is planning to make a bid for 120 image intensifiers to be used in a military vehicle. The company estimates the first unit will require 80 hours of direct labor to produce. The industry learning curve for this particular type of product is 92%. Determine how many hours will be required to produce the 60th and 120th units.
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Scenario
You have been given a task to create a demand forecast for the second year of sales of a premium outdoor grill.
Accurate forecasts are important for many reasons, including for the company to ensure they have the materials
they need to create the products required in a certain period of time. Your objective is to minimize the forecast
error, which will be measured using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) with a goal of being below 25%.
You have historical monthly sales data for the past year and access to software that provides forecasts based on
five different forecasting techniques (Naïve, 3-Month Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing for .2, Exponential
Smooth for .5, and Seasonal) to help determine the best forecast for that particular month. Based on the given
data, you will identify trends and patterns to create a more accurate forecast.
Approach
Consider the previous month's forecast to identify which technique is most effective. Use that to forecast the next…
Approach
Consider the previous month's forecast to identify which technique is most effective. Use that to forecast the next
month.
Remember to select the forecasting technique that produces the forecast error nearest to zero. For example:
a. Naïve Forecast is 230 and the Forecast Error is -15.
b. 3-Month Moving Forecast is 290 and the Forecast Error is -75.
c. Exponential Smoothing Forecast for .2 is 308 and the Forecast Error is -93.
d. Exponential Smoothing Forecast for .5 is 279 and the Forecast Error is -64.
e. Seasonal Forecast is 297 and the Forecast Error is -82.
The forecast for the next month would be 230 as the Naïve Forecast had the Forecast Error closest to zero with a
-15. This forecasting technique was the best performing technique for that month. You do not need to do any
external analysis-the forecast error for each strategy is already calculated for you in the tables below.
Naïve
Month Period
Actual
Demand
Naïve Forecast
Error
3-
Month
Moving
Forecast
3-
Month
Moving…
Scenario
You have been given a task to create a demand forecast for the second year of sales of a premium outdoor grill.
Accurate forecasts are important for many reasons, including for the company to ensure they have the materials
they need to create the products required in a certain period of time. Your objective is to minimize the forecast
error, which will be measured using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) with a goal of being below 25%.
You have historical monthly sales data for the past year and access to software that provides forecasts based on
five different forecasting techniques (Naïve, 3-Month Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing for .2, Exponential
Smooth for .5, and Seasonal) to help determine the best forecast for that particular month. Based on the given
data, you will identify trends and patterns to create a more accurate forecast.
Approach
Consider the previous month's forecast to identify which technique is most effective. Use that to forecast the next…
Chapter 8 Solutions
Operations and Supply Chain Management 9th edition
Ch. 8.S - Compare the use of predetermined motion times for...Ch. 8.S - Prob. 2QCh. 8.S - Prob. 3QCh. 8.S - Prob. 5QCh. 8.S - Prob. 6QCh. 8.S - Prob. 7QCh. 8.S - Prob. 1PCh. 8.S - A sewing operator at the Gameday Sportswear...Ch. 8 - Prob. 1QCh. 8 - Prob. 2Q
Ch. 8 - Prob. 3QCh. 8 - Prob. 4QCh. 8 - Prob. 5QCh. 8 - Prob. 6QCh. 8 - Prob. 7QCh. 8 - What are some of the ways companies achieve...Ch. 8 - Prob. 10QCh. 8 - Prob. 12QCh. 8 - Prob. 13QCh. 8 - Prob. 16QCh. 8 - Prob. 17QCh. 8 - Prob. 18QCh. 8 - Prob. 20QCh. 8 - Prob. 21QCh. 8 - Prob. 22QCh. 8 - Prob. 23QCh. 8 - Prob. 24QCh. 8 - Prob. 25QCh. 8 - Prob. 27QCh. 8 - Prob. 28QCh. 8 - Prob. 33QCh. 8 - Prob. 34QCh. 8 - Discuss some of the uses and limitations of...Ch. 8 - Prob. 1PCh. 8 - Professor Cook teaches operations management at...Ch. 8 - Nite-Site, Inc., manufactures image...Ch. 8 - Prob. 4PCh. 8 - Prob. 5PCh. 8 - Prob. 6PCh. 8 - Prob. 7PCh. 8 - Prob. 8PCh. 8 - Prob. 9PCh. 8 - Prob. 10PCh. 8 - Prob. 11PCh. 8 - Prob. 12P
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