Operations and Supply Chain Management 9th edition
9th Edition
ISBN: 9781119320975
Author: Roberta S. Russell, Bernard W. Taylor III
Publisher: WILEY
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Chapter 7.S, Problem 4P
Summary Introduction
To recommend: The best plant location using the factor rating method.
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Scenario
You have been given a task to create a demand forecast for the second year of sales of a premium outdoor grill.
Accurate forecasts are important for many reasons, including for the company to ensure they have the materials
they need to create the products required in a certain period of time. Your objective is to minimize the forecast
error, which will be measured using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) with a goal of being below 25%.
You have historical monthly sales data for the past year and access to software that provides forecasts based on
five different forecasting techniques (Naïve, 3-Month Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing for .2, Exponential
Smooth for .5, and Seasonal) to help determine the best forecast for that particular month. Based on the given
data, you will identify trends and patterns to create a more accurate forecast.
Approach
Consider the previous month's forecast to identify which technique is most effective. Use that to forecast the next…
Approach
Consider the previous month's forecast to identify which technique is most effective. Use that to forecast the next
month.
Remember to select the forecasting technique that produces the forecast error nearest to zero. For example:
a. Naïve Forecast is 230 and the Forecast Error is -15.
b. 3-Month Moving Forecast is 290 and the Forecast Error is -75.
c. Exponential Smoothing Forecast for .2 is 308 and the Forecast Error is -93.
d. Exponential Smoothing Forecast for .5 is 279 and the Forecast Error is -64.
e. Seasonal Forecast is 297 and the Forecast Error is -82.
The forecast for the next month would be 230 as the Naïve Forecast had the Forecast Error closest to zero with a
-15. This forecasting technique was the best performing technique for that month. You do not need to do any
external analysis-the forecast error for each strategy is already calculated for you in the tables below.
Naïve
Month Period
Actual
Demand
Naïve Forecast
Error
3-
Month
Moving
Forecast
3-
Month
Moving…
Scenario
You have been given a task to create a demand forecast for the second year of sales of a premium outdoor grill.
Accurate forecasts are important for many reasons, including for the company to ensure they have the materials
they need to create the products required in a certain period of time. Your objective is to minimize the forecast
error, which will be measured using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) with a goal of being below 25%.
You have historical monthly sales data for the past year and access to software that provides forecasts based on
five different forecasting techniques (Naïve, 3-Month Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing for .2, Exponential
Smooth for .5, and Seasonal) to help determine the best forecast for that particular month. Based on the given
data, you will identify trends and patterns to create a more accurate forecast.
Approach
Consider the previous month's forecast to identify which technique is most effective. Use that to forecast the next…
Chapter 7 Solutions
Operations and Supply Chain Management 9th edition
Ch. 7.S - Prob. 1QCh. 7.S - Prob. 2QCh. 7.S - Prob. 3QCh. 7.S - Prob. 4QCh. 7.S - Prob. 5QCh. 7.S - Prob. 7QCh. 7.S - Prob. 1PCh. 7.S - Prob. 2PCh. 7.S - Prob. 3PCh. 7.S - Prob. 4P
Ch. 7.S - Prob. 5PCh. 7.S - Prob. 6PCh. 7.S - Prob. 7PCh. 7.S - Prob. 8PCh. 7.S - Prob. 12PCh. 7.S - Prob. 13PCh. 7.S - Prob. 14PCh. 7.S - Prob. 15PCh. 7.S - Prob. 16PCh. 7.S - Prob. 17PCh. 7.S - Prob. 18PCh. 7.S - Prob. 19PCh. 7.S - Prob. 20PCh. 7.S - Prob. 21PCh. 7.S - Prob. 22PCh. 7.S - Prob. 23PCh. 7.S - Prob. 24PCh. 7.S - Prob. 25PCh. 7.S - Prob. 26PCh. 7.S - Prob. 27PCh. 7.S - Prob. 1.1CPCh. 7 - Prob. 1QCh. 7 - Prob. 2QCh. 7 - Prob. 3QCh. 7 - Prob. 4QCh. 7 - Prob. 5QCh. 7 - Prob. 8QCh. 7 - Prob. 9QCh. 7 - Prob. 10QCh. 7 - Prob. 11QCh. 7 - What are the fixed and variable cost tradeoffs...Ch. 7 - What is the difference between block diagramming...Ch. 7 - Prob. 14QCh. 7 - What are the objectives of line balancing?...Ch. 7 - How are manufacturing cells formed? How does the...Ch. 7 - Prob. 17QCh. 7 - Prob. 18QCh. 7 - Prob. 19QCh. 7 - Prob. 1PCh. 7 - Prob. 2PCh. 7 - Prob. 3PCh. 7 - Prob. 4PCh. 7 - Rent-With-Us Management Inc. has purchased a large...Ch. 7 - Prob. 6PCh. 7 - Prob. 7PCh. 7 - Prob. 8PCh. 7 - Prob. 9PCh. 7 - Prob. 10PCh. 7 - Prob. 11PCh. 7 - Prob. 12PCh. 7 - Prob. 13PCh. 7 - Prob. 14PCh. 7 - Prob. 15PCh. 7 - Prob. 16PCh. 7 - The TLB Yogurt Company must be able to make 600...Ch. 7 - The Speedy Pizza Palace is revamping its...Ch. 7 - Professor Garcia has assigned 15 cases in his OM...Ch. 7 - McCauleys Heating and Air in Phoenix, Arizona,...Ch. 7 - The precedence diagram and task times (in minutes)...Ch. 7 - The Costplus Corporation has set a processing...Ch. 7 - Hanover Hospital beds can transform from a bed to...Ch. 7 - Fines Furniture is known for its fine cedar...Ch. 7 - Prob. 25PCh. 7 - The Wet Wellies Corporation produces waterproof...Ch. 7 - Prob. 27PCh. 7 - Jetaway, a small manufacturer of replacement parts...Ch. 7 - Workout Plus Workout Plus is a health club that...Ch. 7 - Photo Op-Please Line Up Tech is modernizing its...Ch. 7 - Photo Op-Please Line Up Tech is modernizing its...Ch. 7 - Photo Op-Please Line Up Tech is modernizing its...
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