Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN: 9781337406659
Author: WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher: Cengage,
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Chapter 7.6, Problem 29P
Summary Introduction
To calculate: The team's ratings based on the minimization of absolute prediction errors to minimize.
Non-linear programming (NLP):
Non-linear programming (NLP) is used in complex optimization problems where the objectives or constraints or sometimes both are non-linear functions of the decision variables. A model can be termed as non-linear for more than one reason.
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A company that supplies gasoline to a city has recorded the weeklyusage (tons/week) for the past 3 years. The file BA3653GasolineRecord.xlsxcontains this record.(a) Propose a method for predicting the demand for gasoline. Use thatmethod to forecast demand for next year (weeks 157 to 208).(b) Improve your prediction in part (a) by including a statement about demand variability. (Hint: Look at or the range of the data.)
week
demand (tons)
1
1174.5
2
1316.2
3
1197
4
1127.3
5
1193.1
6
1260.7
7
1378.2
8
1273.7
9
1366.4
10
1113
11
1177.7
12
1056
13
1291.2
14
1269.1
15
1289.6
16
1181
17
1249
18
1212
19
1286.2
20
1204.8
21
1266.2
22
1332.4
23
1236.3
24
1266.1
25
1415.3
26
1100.1
27
1208.1
28
1505.1
29
1282.7
30
1190.5
31
1152.8
32
1089.7
33
1404.7
34
1308.6
35
1255.4
36
1106.7
37
1484.6
38
1317.4
39
1294.7
40
1154
41
1449.9
42
1174.9
43
1466.9
44
1282.4
45
1228
46
1174
47
1196.2
48
1443.8
49…
The following time series represents the number of automobiles sold by a car dealership each of the past five months.
O
t
O
(a) Construct a time series plot.
Time Series Value
12
INIWIN
10
8
6
4
Y₁ 7 12 8 15 16
16
14-
12
10-
8-
6
14-
12
10
ON 4900
1 2 3
8.
6
0
4 5
1
1
2
3
4
Time Period (t)
2 3
4
Time Period (t)
5
5
6
16-
14
0
1
+
3
2
4
Time Period (t)
5
6
16-
14-
12
10
8-
1
2
3
4
Time Period (t)
5
Over one year, a company sold the following numbers of lawn mowers.
Month
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Sales
238
220
195
245
345
380
270
220
280
120
110
85
Compute the one-step-ahead 3-month and 6-month moving-average forecasts for July through December.
Compute the MAD for the forecasts obtained in part (a). What effect does increasing N from 3 to 6 have on the forecasts?
Use the arithmetic average of the first six months of data as a baseline to initialize the exponential smoothing. Compute the one-step-ahead exponential smoothing forecasts for July through December, assuming α = 0.20.
Compare the accuracy of the forecasts obtained in part (c) with the one-step ahead six-month moving-average forecasts obtained in part (a).
Chapter 7 Solutions
Practical Management Science
Ch. 7.3 - Prob. 1PCh. 7.3 - Prob. 2PCh. 7.3 - Pricing Decisions at Madison The Madison Company...Ch. 7.3 - Prob. 4PCh. 7.3 - Prob. 5PCh. 7.3 - Prob. 6PCh. 7.3 - Prob. 7PCh. 7.3 - Prob. 8PCh. 7.3 - Prob. 9PCh. 7.3 - Prob. 10P
Ch. 7.3 - Prob. 11PCh. 7.3 - Prob. 12PCh. 7.3 - Prob. 13PCh. 7.3 - PRICING SUITS AT SULLIVANS Sullivans is a retailer...Ch. 7.3 - Prob. 15PCh. 7.4 - Prob. 16PCh. 7.4 - Prob. 17PCh. 7.4 - Prob. 18PCh. 7.4 - Prob. 19PCh. 7.4 - Prob. 20PCh. 7.4 - Prob. 21PCh. 7.4 - Prob. 22PCh. 7.4 - Prob. 23PCh. 7.5 - Prob. 24PCh. 7.5 - Prob. 25PCh. 7.5 - Prob. 26PCh. 7.5 - Prob. 27PCh. 7.6 - Prob. 28PCh. 7.6 - Prob. 29PCh. 7.6 - Prob. 30PCh. 7.6 - Prob. 31PCh. 7.6 - Prob. 32PCh. 7.6 - Prob. 33PCh. 7.6 - The method for rating teams in Example 7.8 is...Ch. 7.7 - Prob. 35PCh. 7.7 - Prob. 36PCh. 7.7 - Prob. 37PCh. 7.7 - The stocks in Example 7.9 are all positively...Ch. 7.7 - Prob. 39PCh. 7.7 - Prob. 40PCh. 7.7 - Prob. 41PCh. 7.7 - Prob. 42PCh. 7.8 - Given the data in the file Stock Beta.xlsx,...Ch. 7.8 - Prob. 44PCh. 7 - Prob. 45PCh. 7 - Prob. 46PCh. 7 - Another way to derive a demand function is to...Ch. 7 - Prob. 48PCh. 7 - If a monopolist produces q units, she can charge...Ch. 7 - Prob. 50PCh. 7 - Prob. 51PCh. 7 - Prob. 52PCh. 7 - Prob. 53PCh. 7 - Prob. 54PCh. 7 - Prob. 55PCh. 7 - Prob. 56PCh. 7 - A beer company has divided Bloomington into two...Ch. 7 - Prob. 58PCh. 7 - Prob. 59PCh. 7 - Prob. 60PCh. 7 - Prob. 61PCh. 7 - Prob. 62PCh. 7 - Prob. 63PCh. 7 - You have 50,000 to invest in three stocks. Let Ri...Ch. 7 - Prob. 65PCh. 7 - Prob. 66PCh. 7 - Prob. 67PCh. 7 - Prob. 68PCh. 7 - Prob. 69PCh. 7 - Prob. 70PCh. 7 - Based on Grossman and Hart (1983). A salesperson...Ch. 7 - Prob. 73PCh. 7 - Prob. 74PCh. 7 - Prob. 75PCh. 7 - Prob. 76PCh. 7 - Prob. 77PCh. 7 - Prob. 78PCh. 7 - Prob. 79PCh. 7 - Prob. 80PCh. 7 - Prob. 81PCh. 7 - Prob. 82PCh. 7 - Prob. 83PCh. 7 - Prob. 84PCh. 7 - Prob. 85PCh. 7 - Prob. 86PCh. 7 - Prob. 1.1CCh. 7 - Prob. 1.2CCh. 7 - Prob. 1.3CCh. 7 - Prob. 1.4C
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