Statistics: The Art and Science of Learning from Data (4th Edition)
Statistics: The Art and Science of Learning from Data (4th Edition)
4th Edition
ISBN: 9780321997838
Author: Alan Agresti, Christine A. Franklin, Bernhard Klingenberg
Publisher: PEARSON
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Chapter 5, Problem 66CP

Peyton Manning completions As of the end of the 2010 NFL season, Indianapolis Colts quarterback Peyton Manning, throughout his 13-year career, completed 65% of all of his pass attempts. Suppose the probability each pass attempted in the next season has probability 0.65 of being completed.

  1. a. Does this mean that if we watch Manning throw 100 times in the upcoming season, he would complete exactly 65 passes? Explain.
  2. b. Explain what this probability means in terms of observing him over a longer period, say for 1000 passes over the course of the next two seasons, assuming Manning is still at his typical playing level. Would it be surprising if his completion percentage over a large number of passes differed significantly from 65%?

a.

Expert Solution
Check Mark
To determine

Check whether the meaning of probability “if one watches Person PM throwing 100 times in the upcoming season, then the person would complete exactly 65 passes” is correct or not.

Explain the reason.

Explanation of Solution

The given information is that the completion percentage for the next season is 0.65.

Law of large number:

If an experiment is repeated a large number of times, then the proportion of the certain event approaches its probability.

From the law of large number, it can be concluded that proportion approaches probability. In other words, the law of large number gives approximate values, not exact values. Therefore, it cannot be concluded that there are exactly 65 passes out of 100 throws.

Therefore, the probability value does not mean that if one watches Person PM throwing 100 times in the upcoming season, then the person would complete exactly 65 passes.

b.

Expert Solution
Check Mark
To determine

Explain the meaning of the probability in terms of observing longer periods.

Check whether it is surprising if the completion percentage is significantly differed from 65%.

Explanation of Solution

From the law of large number, it can be concluded that proportion approaches probability. In other words, the law of large number gives approximate values, not exact values. Therefore, it cannot be concluded that there are exactly 65 passes out of 100 throws.

If the person passes the throw large numbers of times, then by the law of large numbers, it can be concluded that the completion percentage is closer to 0.65. If the person is at typical playing level and the completion percentage is significantly differed from 65%, then it is surprising.

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Chapter 5 Solutions

Statistics: The Art and Science of Learning from Data (4th Edition)

Ch. 5.1 - Unannounced pop quiz A teacher announces a pop...Ch. 5.2 - Student union poll Part of a student opinion poll...Ch. 5.2 - Random digit A single random digit (from 09) is...Ch. 5.2 - Pop quiz A teacher gives a four-question...Ch. 5.2 - More true-false questions Your teacher gives a...Ch. 5.2 - Rolling two dice Some friends are playing a game...Ch. 5.2 - Two girls A couple plans to have two children....Ch. 5.2 - Three children A couple plans to have three...Ch. 5.2 - Wrong sample space A couple plans to have four...Ch. 5.2 - Insurance Every year the insurance industry spends...Ch. 5.2 - Cell phone and case At the local cell phone store,...Ch. 5.2 - Seat belt use and auto accidents Based on records...Ch. 5.2 - Protecting the environment When the General Social...Ch. 5.2 - Prob. 25PBCh. 5.2 - Newspaper sales You are the director of newspaper...Ch. 5.2 - Prob. 27PBCh. 5.3 - Recidivism rates A 2014 article from Business...Ch. 5.3 - Prob. 29PBCh. 5.3 - Audit and low income Table 5.3 on audit status and...Ch. 5.3 - Religious affiliation The 2012 Statistical...Ch. 5.3 - Prob. 32PBCh. 5.3 - Prob. 33PBCh. 5.3 - Go Celtics! Larry Bird, who played pro basketball...Ch. 5.3 - Prob. 35PBCh. 5.3 - Homeland security According to an article in The...Ch. 5.3 - Down syndrome again Example 8 discussed the Triple...Ch. 5.3 - Prob. 38PBCh. 5.3 - Happiness in relationship Are people happy in...Ch. 5.3 - Prob. 40PBCh. 5.3 - Prob. 41PBCh. 5.3 - Prob. 42PBCh. 5.3 - Prob. 43PBCh. 5.3 - Prob. 44PBCh. 5.3 - Family with two children For a family with two...Ch. 5.3 - Prob. 46PBCh. 5.4 - Birthdays of presidents Of the first 44 presidents...Ch. 5.4 - Prob. 48PBCh. 5.4 - Lots of pairs Show that with 25 students, there...Ch. 5.4 - Prob. 50PBCh. 5.4 - Prob. 51PBCh. 5.4 - Prob. 52PBCh. 5.4 - Coincidence in your life State an event that has...Ch. 5.4 - Monkeys typing Shakespeare Since events of low...Ch. 5.4 - A true coincidence at DisneyWorld Wisconsin has...Ch. 5.4 - Prob. 56PBCh. 5.4 - Mammogram diagnostics Breast cancer is the most...Ch. 5.4 - Prob. 58PBCh. 5.4 - Prob. 59PBCh. 5.4 - Convicted by mistake In criminal trials (e.g.,...Ch. 5.4 - DNA evidence compelling? DNA evidence can be...Ch. 5.4 - Prob. 62PBCh. 5.4 - Simulating donations to local blood bank The...Ch. 5.4 - Probability of winning In Example 16, we estimated...Ch. 5 - Peyton Manning completions As of the end of the...Ch. 5 - Due for a boy? A couple has five children, all...Ch. 5 - Prob. 68CPCh. 5 - Choices for lunch For the set lunch at Amelias...Ch. 5 - Caught doctoring the books After the major...Ch. 5 - Life after death In a General Social Survey, in...Ch. 5 - Death penalty jury In arguing against the death...Ch. 5 - Drivers exam Three 15-year-old friends with no...Ch. 5 - Prob. 74CPCh. 5 - Health insurance According to a 2006 census bureau...Ch. 5 - Prob. 76CPCh. 5 - Prob. 77CPCh. 5 - Prob. 78CPCh. 5 - Prob. 79CPCh. 5 - Roll two more dice Refer to the previous exercise....Ch. 5 - Prob. 81CPCh. 5 - Waste dump sites A federal agency is deciding...Ch. 5 - Prob. 83CPCh. 5 - Prob. 84CPCh. 5 - Prob. 85CPCh. 5 - Death penalty and false positives For the decision...Ch. 5 - Prob. 87CPCh. 5 - Screening for heart attacks Biochemical markers...Ch. 5 - Prob. 89CPCh. 5 - Color blindness For genetic reasons, color...Ch. 5 - Prob. 91CPCh. 5 - Prostate cancer A study of the PSA blood test for...Ch. 5 - Prob. 95CPCh. 5 - Illustrate probability terms with scenarios a....Ch. 5 - Short term versus long run Short-term aberrations...Ch. 5 - Prob. 98CPCh. 5 - Mrs. Test Mrs. Test (see www.mrstest.com) sells...Ch. 5 - Prob. 100CPCh. 5 - Prob. 101CPCh. 5 - Prob. 102CPCh. 5 - Protective bomb Before the days of high security...Ch. 5 - Streak shooter Sportscaster Maria Coselli claims...Ch. 5 - Multiple choice Choose ALL correct responses. For...Ch. 5 - Prob. 106CPCh. 5 - Prob. 107CPCh. 5 - Multiple choice: Dream come true You have a dream...Ch. 5 - Prob. 109CPCh. 5 - True or false Answer true of false for each part....Ch. 5 - True or false When you flip a balanced coin twice,...Ch. 5 - Prob. 112CPCh. 5 - Prob. 113CPCh. 5 - Prob. 114CPCh. 5 - Prob. 115CPCh. 5 - Prob. 116CP
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