Loose-leaf for Operations Management (The Mcgraw-hill Series in Operations and Decision Sciences)
12th Edition
ISBN: 9781259580093
Author: William J Stevenson
Publisher: McGraw-Hill Education
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Textbook Question
Chapter 4.S, Problem 1P
Consider the following system:
Determine the probability that the system will operate under each of these conditions:
a. The system as shown.
b. Each system component has a backup with a probability of .90 and a switch that is 100 percent reliable.
c. Backup with .90 probability and a switch that is 99 percent reliable.
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By selecting Cigna Accredo pharmacy that i identify in my resand compare the current feedback system against the “Characteristics of a Good Multiple Source Feedback Systems” described in section 8-3-3. What can be improved? As a consultant, what recommendations would you make?
Scenario
You have been given a task to create a demand forecast for the second year of sales of a premium outdoor grill.
Accurate forecasts are important for many reasons, including for the company to ensure they have the materials
they need to create the products required in a certain period of time. Your objective is to minimize the forecast
error, which will be measured using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) with a goal of being below 25%.
You have historical monthly sales data for the past year and access to software that provides forecasts based on
five different forecasting techniques (Naïve, 3-Month Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing for .2, Exponential
Smooth for .5, and Seasonal) to help determine the best forecast for that particular month. Based on the given
data, you will identify trends and patterns to create a more accurate forecast.
Approach
Consider the previous month's forecast to identify which technique is most effective. Use that to forecast the next…
Approach
Consider the previous month's forecast to identify which technique is most effective. Use that to forecast the next
month.
Remember to select the forecasting technique that produces the forecast error nearest to zero. For example:
a. Naïve Forecast is 230 and the Forecast Error is -15.
b. 3-Month Moving Forecast is 290 and the Forecast Error is -75.
c. Exponential Smoothing Forecast for .2 is 308 and the Forecast Error is -93.
d. Exponential Smoothing Forecast for .5 is 279 and the Forecast Error is -64.
e. Seasonal Forecast is 297 and the Forecast Error is -82.
The forecast for the next month would be 230 as the Naïve Forecast had the Forecast Error closest to zero with a
-15. This forecasting technique was the best performing technique for that month. You do not need to do any
external analysis-the forecast error for each strategy is already calculated for you in the tables below.
Naïve
Month Period
Actual
Demand
Naïve Forecast
Error
3-
Month
Moving
Forecast
3-
Month
Moving…
Chapter 4 Solutions
Loose-leaf for Operations Management (The Mcgraw-hill Series in Operations and Decision Sciences)
Ch. 4.5 - Prob. 1.1RQCh. 4.5 - Prob. 1.2RQCh. 4.8 - LEGO A/S IN THE PINK Lego A/S overcame the recent...Ch. 4.11 - THE CHALLENGES OF MANAGING SERVICES Services can...Ch. 4.11 - THE CHALLENGES OF MANAGING SERVICES Services can...Ch. 4.S - Prob. 1DRQCh. 4.S - Prob. 2DRQCh. 4.S - Prob. 3DRQCh. 4.S - Consider the following system: Determine the...Ch. 4.S - A product is composed of four parts. In order for...
Ch. 4.S - A system consists of three identical components....Ch. 4.S - A product engineer has developed the following...Ch. 4.S - The guidance system of a ship is controlled by a...Ch. 4.S - One of the industrial robots designed by a leading...Ch. 4.S - A production line has three machines A, B, and C,...Ch. 4.S - Prob. 8PCh. 4.S - A Web server has five major components that must...Ch. 4.S - Repeat Problem 9 under the condition that one of...Ch. 4.S - Hoping to increase the chances of reaching a...Ch. 4.S - An electronic chess game has a useful life that is...Ch. 4.S - A manufacturer of programmable calculators is...Ch. 4.S - Lucky Lumen light bulbs have an expected life that...Ch. 4.S - Prob. 15PCh. 4.S - Prob. 16PCh. 4.S - A major television manufacturer has determined...Ch. 4.S - Prob. 18PCh. 4.S - Determine the availability for each of these...Ch. 4.S - Prob. 20PCh. 4.S - A manager must decide between two machines. The...Ch. 4.S - Prob. 22PCh. 4.S - Auto batteries have an average life of 2.7 years....Ch. 4 - Prob. 1DRQCh. 4 - Prob. 2DRQCh. 4 - Prob. 3DRQCh. 4 - Prob. 4DRQCh. 4 - Prob. 5DRQCh. 4 - Prob. 6DRQCh. 4 - Prob. 7DRQCh. 4 - Prob. 8DRQCh. 4 - a. What is meant by the term life cycle? b. Why...Ch. 4 - Prob. 10DRQCh. 4 - Prob. 11DRQCh. 4 - Prob. 12DRQCh. 4 - Prob. 13DRQCh. 4 - Explain what quality function development is and...Ch. 4 - Prob. 15DRQCh. 4 - Prob. 16DRQCh. 4 - Prob. 17DRQCh. 4 - Prob. 18DRQCh. 4 - Prob. 19DRQCh. 4 - Describe some of the trade-off that are...Ch. 4 - Prob. 2TSCh. 4 - Prob. 3TSCh. 4 - Prob. 1CTECh. 4 - Prob. 2CTECh. 4 - Prob. 3CTECh. 4 - Prob. 4CTECh. 4 - Prob. 5CTECh. 4 - Give two examples of unethical conduct involving...Ch. 4 - Prob. 1PCh. 4 - Prob. 2PCh. 4 - Prepare a service blueprint for each of these...Ch. 4 - Prepare a service blueprint for each of these post...Ch. 4 - Prob. 5PCh. 4 - Prob. 6PCh. 4 - Prob. 7PCh. 4 - Prepare a table similar to that shown in Problem...
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