Introductory Statistics
1st Edition
ISBN: 9781938168208
Author: Barbara Illowsky, Susan Dean
Publisher: OpenStax College
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Textbook Question
Chapter 3, Problem 82H
Use the following information o answer the next three exercises. The casino game, roulette, allows the gambler to bet on the
Figure 3.13 (ae kei1*ibooks)
a. List the
b. You bet on red. Find P(red). c. You bet on -1st 12- (1st Dozen). Find P(-lst 12-).
d. You bet on an even number. Find P( even number).
e. Is getting an odd number the complement of getting an even number? Why?
f. Find two mutually exclusive
g. Are the events Even and 1st Dozen independent?
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(c) Because logistic regression predicts probabilities of outcomes, observations used to build a logistic regression model need not be independent.
A. false: all observations must be independent
B. true
C. false: only observations with the same outcome need to be independent
I ANSWERED: A. false: all observations must be independent.
(This was marked wrong but I have no idea why. Isn't this a basic assumption of logistic regression)
Business discuss
Spam filters are built on principles similar to those used in logistic regression. We fit a probability that each message is spam or not spam. We have several variables for each email. Here are a few: to_multiple=1 if there are multiple recipients, winner=1 if the word 'winner' appears in the subject line, format=1 if the email is poorly formatted, re_subj=1 if "re" appears in the subject line. A logistic model was fit to a dataset with the following output:
Estimate
SE
Z
Pr(>|Z|)
(Intercept)
-0.8161
0.086
-9.4895
0
to_multiple
-2.5651
0.3052
-8.4047
0
winner
1.5801
0.3156
5.0067
0
format
-0.1528
0.1136
-1.3451
0.1786
re_subj
-2.8401
0.363
-7.824
0
(a) Write down the model using the coefficients from the model fit.log_odds(spam) = -0.8161 + -2.5651 + to_multiple + 1.5801 winner + -0.1528 format + -2.8401 re_subj(b) Suppose we have an observation where to_multiple=0, winner=1, format=0, and re_subj=0. What is the predicted probability that this message is spam?…
Chapter 3 Solutions
Introductory Statistics
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