Statistics for Business & Economics, Revised (MindTap Course List)
Statistics for Business & Economics, Revised (MindTap Course List)
12th Edition
ISBN: 9781285846323
Author: David R. Anderson, Dennis J. Sweeney, Thomas A. Williams, Jeffrey D. Camm, James J. Cochran
Publisher: South-Western College Pub
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Chapter 21.3, Problem 12E

Martin’s Service Station is considering entering the snowplowing business for the coming winter season. Martin can purchase either a snowplow blade attachment for the station’s pick-up truck or a new heavy-duty snowplow truck. After analyzing the situation, Martin believes that either alternative would be a profitable investment if the snowfall is heavy. Smaller profits would result if the snowfall is moderate, and losses would result if the snowfall is light. The following profits/losses apply.

Chapter 21.3, Problem 12E, Martins Service Station is considering entering the snowplowing business for the coming winter

The probabilities for the states of nature are P(s1) = .4, P(s2) = .3, and P(s3) = .3. Suppose that Martin decides to wait until September before making a final decision. Assessments of the probabilities associated with a normal (N) or unseasonably cold (U) September are as follows:

P(N) = .8 P(s1 | N ) 5 .35 P(s1 | U ) 5 .62
P(U) = .2 P(s2 | N ) 5 .30 P(s2 | U ) 5 .31
  P(s3 | N ) 5 .35 P(s3 | U ) 5 .07
  1. a. Construct a decision tree for this problem.
  2. b. W hat is the recommended decision if Martin does not wait until September? What is the expected value?
  3. c. W hat is the expected value of perfect information?
  4. d. W hat is Martin’s optimal decision strategy if the decision is not made until the September weather is determined? What is the expected value of this decision strategy?
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