Bundle: Modern Business Statistics with Microsoft Office Excel, Loose-Leaf Version, 6th + MindTap Business Statistics, 2 terms (12 months) Printed Access Card
6th Edition
ISBN: 9781337589383
Author: David R. Anderson, Dennis J. Sweeney, Thomas A. Williams, Jeffrey D. Camm, James J. Cochran
Publisher: Cengage Learning
expand_more
expand_more
format_list_bulleted
Concept explainers
Videos
Textbook Question
Chapter 20.4, Problem 17E
The Gorman Manufacturing Company must decide whether to manufacture a component part at its Milan, Michigan, plant or purchase the component part from a supplier. The resulting profit is dependent upon the demand for the product. The following payoff table shows the projected profit (in thousands of dollars).
The state-of-nature probabilities are P(s1) = .35, P(s2) = .35, and P(s3) = .30.
- a. Use a decision tree to recommend a decision.
- b. Use EVPI to determine whether Gorman should attempt to obtain a better estimate of demand.
- c. A test market study of the potential demand for the product is expected to report either a favorable (F) or unfavorable (U) condition. The relevant conditional probabilities are as follows:
| P(F | s1) = .10 | P(U | s1) = .90 |
| P(F | s2) = .40 | P(U | s2) = .60 |
| P(F | s3) = .60 | P(U | s3) = .40 |
What is the
- d. What is Gorman’s optimal decision strategy?
- e. What is the
expected value of the market research information?
Expert Solution & Answer
Trending nowThis is a popular solution!
Students have asked these similar questions
Mike, a lumber wholesaler, is considering the purchase of a (railroad) car- load of varied dimensional lumber. He calculates that the probabilities of reselling the load for $10,000, $9000, and for $8000 are 0.22, 0.33, and 0.45 respectively. In order to ensure an expected profit of $3000, how much can Mike pay for the load
To generate leads for new business, Gustin Investment Services offers free financial planning seminars at major hotels in Southwest Florida. Gustin conducts seminars for groups of 25 individuals. Each seminar costs Gustin $3,400, and the commission for each new account
opened is $4,900. Gustin estimates that for each individual attending the seminar, there is a 0.01 probability that he/she will open a new account.
(a) Determine the equation for computing Gustin's profit per seminar, given static values of the relevant parameters.
Profit = (New Accounts Opened x
(b) What type of random variable is the number of new accounts opened? (Hint: Review Appendix 11.1 for descriptions of various types of probability distributions.)
O uniform random variable
O poisson random variable
O hypergeometric random variable
O binomial random variable
O normal random variable
(c) Construct a simulation model to analyze the profitability of Gustin's seminars. Would you recommend that Gustin continue…
A machine shop owner is thinking of expanding his operations. He has 3 options: a drill press, a lathe, and a grinder. The return on investment for each tool is largely determined by whether the company wins a government military contract. The profit and loss for each purchase and the probabilities associated with each contract outcome are shown in the payoff table below:
Purchase
Contract
0.40
No Contract
0.60
Drill Press
$40,000
($8,000)
Lathe
$20,000
$4,000
Grinder
$12,000
$10,000
Part 1) Compute for the expected value of each alternative and select the best option.
Chapter 20 Solutions
Bundle: Modern Business Statistics with Microsoft Office Excel, Loose-Leaf Version, 6th + MindTap Business Statistics, 2 terms (12 months) Printed Access Card
Ch. 20.2 - Prob. 1ECh. 20.2 - Prob. 2ECh. 20.2 - 3. Hudson Corporation is considering three options...Ch. 20.2 - 4. Myrtle Air Express decided to offer direct...Ch. 20.2 - 5. The distance from Potsdam to larger markets and...Ch. 20.2 - 6. Seneca Hill Winery recently purchased land for...Ch. 20.2 - 7. The Lake Placid Town Council has decided to...Ch. 20.3 - Consider a variation of the PDC decision tree...Ch. 20.3 - 9. A real estate investor has the opportunity to...Ch. 20.3 - Dante Development Corporation is considering...
Ch. 20.3 - 11. Hale’s TV Productions is considering producing...Ch. 20.3 - 12. Martin’s Service Station is considering...Ch. 20.3 - 13. Lawson’s Department Store faces a buying...Ch. 20.4 - Prob. 14ECh. 20.4 - 15. In the following profit payoff table for a...Ch. 20.4 - 16. To save on expenses, Rona and Jerry agreed to...Ch. 20.4 - 17. The Gorman Manufacturing Company must decide...Ch. 20 - Prob. 18SECh. 20 - 19. Warren Lloyd is interested in leasing a new...Ch. 20 - Hemmingway, Inc., is considering a $50 million...Ch. 20 - 21. Embassy Publishing Company received a...Ch. 20 - Case Problem Lawsuit Defense Strategy
John...
Knowledge Booster
Learn more about
Need a deep-dive on the concept behind this application? Look no further. Learn more about this topic, statistics and related others by exploring similar questions and additional content below.Similar questions
- Avicenna, an insurance company, offers five-year commercial property insurance policies to small businesses. If the holder of one of these policies experiences property damage in the next five years, the company must pay out $23,600 to the policy holder. Executives at Avicenna are considering offering these policies for $791 each. Suppose that for each holder of a policy there is a 3% chance they will experience property damage in the next five years and a 97% chance they will not. (If necessary, consult a list of formulas.) If the executives at Avicenna know that they will sell many of these policies, should they expect to make or lose money from offering them? How much? To answer, take into account the price of the policy and the expected value of the amount paid out to the holder. O Avicenna can expect to make money from offering these policies. In the long run, they should expect to make dollars on each policy sold. O Avicenna can expect to lose money from offering these policies.…arrow_forwardTo generate leads for new business, Gustin Investment Services offers free financial planning seminars at major hotels in Southwest Florida. Gustin conducts seminars for groups of 25 individuals. Each seminar costs Gustin $3,400, and the commission for each new account opened is $4,900. Gustin estimates that for each individual attending the seminar, there is a 0.01 probability that he/she will open a new account. Determine the equation for computing Gustin's profit per seminar, given static values of the relevant parameters. Profit =(New accounts opened x _______)-_________ Construct a simulation model to analyze the profitability of Gustin's seminars. Would you recommend that Gustin continue running the seminars? (Use at least 1,000 trials. Round your answer to two decimal places.) What is the minimum number of attendees (in a multiple of five, i.e., 25, 30, 35, …) that Gustin needs before a seminar's average profit is greater than zero? =______ attendeesarrow_forwardAvicenna, an insurance company, offers five-year commercial property insurance policies to small businesses. If the holder of one of these policies experiences property damage in the next five years, the company must pay out $26,500 to the policy holder. Executives at Avicenna are considering offering these policies for $497 each. Suppose that for each holder of a policy there is a 2% chance they will experience property damage in the next five years and a 98% chance they will not.(If necessary, consult a list of formulas.) If the executives at Avicenna know that they will sell many of these policies, should they expect to make or lose money from offering them? How much? To answer, take into account the price of the policy and the expected value of the amount paid out to the holder. Avicenna can expect to make money from offering these policies. In the long run, they should expect to makedollars on each policy sold. Avicenna can…arrow_forward
- To generate leads for new business, Gustin Investment Services offers free financial planning seminars at major hotels in Southwest Florida. Gustin conducts seminars for groups of 25 individuals. Each seminar costs Gustin $3900, and the average first-year commission for each new account opened is $5500. Gustin estimates that for each individual attending the seminar, there is a 0.01 probability that he/she will open a new account. Determine the equation for computing Gustin’s profit per seminar, given values of the relevant parameters. Round your answers to the nearest dollar.Profit = (New Accounts Opened × $ fill in the blank 1) – $ fill in the blank 2 What type of random variable is the number of new accounts opened? (Hint: Review Appendix 16.1 for descriptions of various types of probability distributions.)The number of new accounts opened is a random variable with fill in the blank 4 trials and fill in the blank 5 probability of a success on a single trial.arrow_forwardA company is trying to decide if they should make a bid on a project that would generate 450,000 in profit. It will cost $100,000 to develop the bid and they will have a 35% chance of winning the contract. What is the expected net profit (project profit less bid development cost) associated with making the bid?arrow_forwardBob, the proprietor of Midway Lumber, bases his projections for the annual revenues of the company on the performance of the housing market. He rates the performance of the market as very strong, strong, normal, weak, or very weak. For the next year, Bob estimates that the probabilities for these outcomes are 0.15, 0.25, 0.39, 0.09, and 0.12, respectively. He also thinks that the revenues corresponding to these outcomes are $23, $18.6, $16.9, $14, and $6 million, respectively. What is Bob's expected revenue for next year?arrow_forward
- Suppose an oil company is thinking of buying some land for $10,000,000. There is a 60%60% chance of economic growth and a 40%40% chance of recession. The probability of discovering oil is 44%44% when there is economic growth and 32%32% when there is a recession. If there is economic growth and the oil company discovers oil, the value of the land will triple. If they do not discover oil, the value of the land will decrease by 10%.10%. If there is a recession and the company discovers oil, the value of the land will increase by 50%.50%. If they do not discover oil, the land will decrease in value by 75%.75%. What is the expected value of the investment? Give your answer to the nearest dollar. Avoid rounding within calculations. $$ Select the correct interpretation of the expected value. The expected value represents what the actual investment value will be for this land purchase of $10,000,000. The company should make the investment because the expected value…arrow_forwardCheryl is considering purchasing additional sewing machines to accommodate the increasing demand for her cosplay costumes. Her alternatives are to buy 1 machine, 2 machines, or 3 machines. The profits realized under each alternative are a function of whether her proposal to bid for clothing the official Bandai team is accepted or not. The payoff table below illustrates the profits realized (in $000's) based on the different scenarios Cheryl faces. The probability that her proposal will be accepted is 65%. Alternative Proposal Accepted Proposal Rejected Purchase 1 sewing machine $10 $5 Purchase 2 sewing machines $30 $4 Purchase 3 sewing machines $40 $2 What alternative should Cherly select if she is pessimistic? What alternative should Cherly select based on a criterion of realism with ?α = 0.8?arrow_forwardSuppose that you just bought a painting for $1million. You plan to sell it exactly one year fromnow. You don’t know what the exact price will bewhen you sell. Nevertheless, you believe thatthere’s a 65% chance that you can sell it for$1.2million, and a 35% chance that you can sell itfor only $900,000. What is your expected gain orloss for this investment?arrow_forward
- Please do question 1f and 1g handwrittenarrow_forwardSuppose we are interested in investing in one of three investment opportunities: d1, d2, or d3. The following profit payoff table shows the profits (in thousands of dollars) under each of the 3 possible economic conditions: s1, s2, and s3 Assume the states of nature have the following probabilities: P(s1) = 0.2, P(s2) = 0.3, P(s3) = 0.5. Which decision alternative is best?arrow_forwardA customer has approached a bank for a $50,000 one-year loan at 12% interest. If the bank does not approve the loan, the $50,000 will be invested in bonds that earn a 6% annual return. WIthout further information, the bank feels that there is a 4% chance that the customer will totally default on the loan. If the customer totally defaults, the bank loses $50,000. At a cost of $500, the bank can thoroughly investigate the customer's credit record and supply a favorable or unfavorable recommendation. Past experiences indicates that p(favorable recommendations|customer does not default) =77/96 p(favorable recommendations|customer defaults)= 1/4 How can the bank maximize its expected profits? Find EVSI and EVPI.arrow_forward
arrow_back_ios
SEE MORE QUESTIONS
arrow_forward_ios
Recommended textbooks for you
MATLAB: An Introduction with ApplicationsStatisticsISBN:9781119256830Author:Amos GilatPublisher:John Wiley & Sons Inc
Probability and Statistics for Engineering and th...StatisticsISBN:9781305251809Author:Jay L. DevorePublisher:Cengage Learning
Statistics for The Behavioral Sciences (MindTap C...StatisticsISBN:9781305504912Author:Frederick J Gravetter, Larry B. WallnauPublisher:Cengage Learning
Elementary Statistics: Picturing the World (7th E...StatisticsISBN:9780134683416Author:Ron Larson, Betsy FarberPublisher:PEARSON
The Basic Practice of StatisticsStatisticsISBN:9781319042578Author:David S. Moore, William I. Notz, Michael A. FlignerPublisher:W. H. Freeman
Introduction to the Practice of StatisticsStatisticsISBN:9781319013387Author:David S. Moore, George P. McCabe, Bruce A. CraigPublisher:W. H. Freeman
MATLAB: An Introduction with Applications
Statistics
ISBN:9781119256830
Author:Amos Gilat
Publisher:John Wiley & Sons Inc
Probability and Statistics for Engineering and th...
Statistics
ISBN:9781305251809
Author:Jay L. Devore
Publisher:Cengage Learning
Statistics for The Behavioral Sciences (MindTap C...
Statistics
ISBN:9781305504912
Author:Frederick J Gravetter, Larry B. Wallnau
Publisher:Cengage Learning
Elementary Statistics: Picturing the World (7th E...
Statistics
ISBN:9780134683416
Author:Ron Larson, Betsy Farber
Publisher:PEARSON
The Basic Practice of Statistics
Statistics
ISBN:9781319042578
Author:David S. Moore, William I. Notz, Michael A. Fligner
Publisher:W. H. Freeman
Introduction to the Practice of Statistics
Statistics
ISBN:9781319013387
Author:David S. Moore, George P. McCabe, Bruce A. Craig
Publisher:W. H. Freeman
Continuous Probability Distributions - Basic Introduction; Author: The Organic Chemistry Tutor;https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QxqxdQ_g2uw;License: Standard YouTube License, CC-BY
Probability Density Function (p.d.f.) Finding k (Part 1) | ExamSolutions; Author: ExamSolutions;https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RsuS2ehsTDM;License: Standard YouTube License, CC-BY
Find the value of k so that the Function is a Probability Density Function; Author: The Math Sorcerer;https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QqoCZWrVnbA;License: Standard Youtube License