The Lake Placid Town Council has decided to build a new community center to be used for conventions, concerts, and other public
The town council suggested using net cash flow over a five-year planning horizon as the criterion for deciding on the best size. A consultant developed the following projections of net cash flow (in thousands of dollars) for a five-year planning horizon. All costs, including the consultant’s fee, are included.
- a. What decision should Lake Placid make using the
expected value approach? - b. Compute the expected value of perfect information. Do you think it would be worth trying to obtain additional information concerning which scenario is likely to occur?
- c. Suppose the probability of the worst-case scenario increases to .2, the probability of the base-case scenario decreases to .5, and the probability of the best-case scenario remains at .3. What effect, if any, would these changes have on the decision recommendation?
- d. The consultant suggested that an expenditure of $150,000 on a promotional campaign over the planning horizon will effectively reduce the probability of the worst-case scenario to zero. If the campaign can be expected to also increase the probability of the best-case scenario to .4, is it a good investment?
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Chapter 20 Solutions
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