Bundle: Modern Business Statistics with Microsoft Office Excel, Loose-Leaf Version, 6th + MindTap Business Statistics, 2 terms (12 months) Printed Access Card
6th Edition
ISBN: 9781337589383
Author: David R. Anderson, Dennis J. Sweeney, Thomas A. Williams, Jeffrey D. Camm, James J. Cochran
Publisher: Cengage Learning
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Chapter 20.3, Problem 11E
Hale’s TV Productions is considering producing a pilot for a comedy series in the hope of selling it to a major television network. The network may decide to reject the series, but it may also decide to purchase the rights to the series for either one or two years. At this point in time, Hale may either produce the pilot and wait for the network’s decision or transfer the rights for the pilot and series to a competitor for $100,000. Hale’s decision alternatives and profits (in thousands of dollars) are as follows:
The probabilities for the states of nature are P(s1) = .2, P(s2) = .3, and P(s3) = .5. For a consulting fee of $5000, an agency will review the plans for the comedy series and indicate the overall chances of a favorable network reaction to the series. Assume that the agency review will result in a favorable (F) or an unfavorable (U) review and that the following probabilities are relevant.
| P(F) = .69 | P(s1 | F) = .09 | P(s1 | U) = .45 |
| P(U) = .31 | P(s2 | F) = .26 | P(s2 | U) = .39 |
| P(s3 | F) = .65 | P(s3 | U) = .16 |
- a. Construct a decision tree for this problem.
- b. What is the recommended decision if the agency opinion is not used? What is the
expected value ? - c. W hat is the expected value of perfect information?
- d. What is Hale’s optimal decision strategy assuming the agency’s information is used?
- e. What is the expected value of the agency’s information?
- f. Is the agency’s information worth the $5000 fee? What is the maximum that Hale should be willing to pay for the information?
- g. What is the recommended decision?
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Chapter 20 Solutions
Bundle: Modern Business Statistics with Microsoft Office Excel, Loose-Leaf Version, 6th + MindTap Business Statistics, 2 terms (12 months) Printed Access Card
Ch. 20.2 - Prob. 1ECh. 20.2 - Prob. 2ECh. 20.2 - 3. Hudson Corporation is considering three options...Ch. 20.2 - 4. Myrtle Air Express decided to offer direct...Ch. 20.2 - 5. The distance from Potsdam to larger markets and...Ch. 20.2 - 6. Seneca Hill Winery recently purchased land for...Ch. 20.2 - 7. The Lake Placid Town Council has decided to...Ch. 20.3 - Consider a variation of the PDC decision tree...Ch. 20.3 - 9. A real estate investor has the opportunity to...Ch. 20.3 - Dante Development Corporation is considering...
Ch. 20.3 - 11. Hale’s TV Productions is considering producing...Ch. 20.3 - 12. Martin’s Service Station is considering...Ch. 20.3 - 13. Lawson’s Department Store faces a buying...Ch. 20.4 - Prob. 14ECh. 20.4 - 15. In the following profit payoff table for a...Ch. 20.4 - 16. To save on expenses, Rona and Jerry agreed to...Ch. 20.4 - 17. The Gorman Manufacturing Company must decide...Ch. 20 - Prob. 18SECh. 20 - 19. Warren Lloyd is interested in leasing a new...Ch. 20 - Hemmingway, Inc., is considering a $50 million...Ch. 20 - 21. Embassy Publishing Company received a...Ch. 20 - Case Problem Lawsuit Defense Strategy
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