Concept explainers
In Problem S1-18, assume the Weight Club is able to estimate probabilities of occurrence for each possible future demand state, as follows:
Determine the best decision using expected value.
The Weight Club (see Case Problem 1.3) is considering adding a new service facility among several possible alternatives including a child care center, a swimming pool, new locker rooms and showers, a health-oriented food court, and a spa. The success of each alternative depends on their demand (i.e., new members who would join because of the new facility), which is uncertain. The following payoff table summarizes the returns (based on costs and increased enrollments) for each alternative service facility given three future levels of demand.
Determine the best decision for the club using the following criteria.
- a. Maximax
- b. Minimax
- c. Hurwicz (α = .45)
- d. Equal likelihood
Want to see the full answer?
Check out a sample textbook solutionChapter 1 Solutions
Operations and Supply Chain Management, 9th Edition WileyPLUS Registration Card + Loose-leaf Print Companion
Additional Business Textbook Solutions
Operations Management: Processes and Supply Chains (12th Edition) (What's New in Operations Management)
Principles of Operations Management: Sustainability and Supply Chain Management (10th Edition)
Operations Management: Sustainability and Supply Chain Management (12th Edition)
Operations Management, Binder Ready Version: An Integrated Approach
Operations Management
Operations Management: Processes and Supply Chains (11th Edition)
- The Aggies will host Tech in this year's homecoming football game. Based on advance ticket sales, the athletic department has forecast hot dog sales as shown in the following table: TT Sales Quantity Probability 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.20 0.20 The school buys premium hot dogs for $1.60 and sells them during the game at $2.80 each. Hot dogs left over after the game will be sold for $0.60 each to the Aggie student cafeteria to be used in making hotdog casserole. Use a payoff matrix to determine the number of hot dogs to buy for the game. hot dogs. (Enter your response as an integer.)arrow_forwardA landowner is considering a community development project. Even though he realizes that the current market for housing is not very favourable, he believes that there will be an influx of retirees into the area within the next five years. He is trying to decide between two alternatives: (1) building detached homes in a planned retirement community or (2) building a smaller townhouse/condominium complex. Mortgage interest rates will affect his outcomes as shown (in $ millions) in the accompanying payoff table. According to the maximax approach, what should the landowner do? Click the icon to view the payoff table. ..... A. Build townhouses/condominiums B. Build detached homes in a planned retirement community if interest rates go up, otherwise build townhouses/condominiums C. Build detached homes in a planned retirement community D. Build detached homes in a planned retirement community if interest rates go down, otherwise build townhouses/condominiums O E. Build detached homes in a…arrow_forwardDawson Electronics is a manufacturer of high-tech control modules for lawn sprinkler systems. Denise, the CEO, is trying to decide if the company should develop one of the two potential new products, the Water Saver 1000 or the Greener Grass 5000. With each product, Dawson can capture a bigger market share if it chooses to expand capacity by buying additional machines. Given different demand scenarios, their probabilities of occurrence, and capacity expansion versus no change in capacity, the potential sale of each product are summarized in the included table. Click the icon to view the table. What is the expected payoff for the Water Saver 1000 and the Greener Grass 5000, with and without capacity expansion? The expected payoff for the Water Saver 1000 with the capacity expansion is $ integer.) The expected payoff for the Water Saver 1000 without the capacity expansion is $. (Enter your response as an integer.) ਗਿਆ (Enter your response as an The expected payoff for the Greener Grass…arrow_forward
- A logistics provider plans to have a new warehouse built to handle increasing demands for its services. Although the company is unsure of how much demand there will be, it must decide now on the size (large or small) of the warehouse. Preliminary estimates are that if a small warehouse is built and demand is low, the monthly income will be $700,000. If demand is high, it will have to either expand the facility or lease additional space. Leasing will result in a monthly income of $100,000 while expanding will result in a monthly income of $500,000. If a large warehouse is built and demand is low, monthly income will only be $40,000, while if demand is high, monthly income will be $2 million.a. Construct a tree diagram for this decision.b. Using your tree diagram, identify the choice that would be made using each of the four approaches for decision making under uncertaintyarrow_forwardSolve the following decision tree and create risk profiles and cumulative risk profiles for the alternatives defined by the original decision “A” and “B” using precisionTree. Which alternative is preferred? Explain.arrow_forwardProblem 13-11 (Algorithmic) Following is the payoff table for the Pittsburgh Development Corporation (PDC) Condominium Project. Amounts are in millions of dollars. State of Nature Decision Alternative Strong Demand S1 Weak Demand S2 Small complex, d1 7 5 Medium complex, d2 14 6 Large complex, d3 20 -8 Suppose PDC is optimistic about the potential for the luxury high-rise condominium complex and that this optimism leads to an initial subjective probability assessment of 0.8 that demand will be strong (S1) and a corresponding probability of 0.2 that demand will be weak (S2). Assume the decision alternative to build the large condominium complex was found to be optimal using the expected value approach. Also, a sensitivity analysis was conducted for the payoffs associated with this decision alternative. It was found that the large complex remained optimal as long as the payoff for the strong demand was greater than or equal to $17.5 million and as long as the payoff…arrow_forward
- Problem 13-11 (Algorithmic) Following is the payoff table for the Pittsburgh Development Corporation (PDC) Condominium Project. Amounts are in millions of dollars. State of Nature Decision Alternative Strong Demand S1 Weak Demand S2 Small complex, d1 8 6 Medium complex, d2 14 5 Large complex, d3 19 -8 Suppose PDC is optimistic about the potential for the luxury high-rise condominium complex and that this optimism leads to an initial subjective probability assessment of 0.8 that demand will be strong (S1) and a corresponding probability of 0.2 that demand will be weak (S2). Assume the decision alternative to build the large condominium complex was found to be optimal using the expected value approach. Also, a sensitivity analysis was conducted for the payoffs associated with this decision alternative. It was found that the large complex remained optimal as long as the payoff for the strong demand was greater than or equal to $17.25 million and as long as the payoff…arrow_forwardHillary’s Flight Operations offers maintenance and repair services for business jets located in Atlanta. They are considering whether they should expand their operations. Hillary has decided that they have a number of options—four to be precise. They can keep their current facilities; they can modify their facilities to make them more efficient; they can expand their current facility; or they can rent additional space. The decision as to which option they should select is predicated upon the estimation of the direction of the economy for the next four years. Hillary’s Flight Operations developed the following decision matrix. What option should Hillary’s Flight Operations make based on Maximax criterion? Future Air Traffic Alternatives Down Same Up Keep As Is ($40,000) $70,000 $100,000 Remodel ($60,000) $65,000 $200,000 Expansion ($150,000) $50,000 $400,000 Rent ($50,000) $60,000 $80,000 Group of answer choicesarrow_forwardWhite Valley Ski Resort is planning the ski lift operation for its new ski resort. Management is trying to determine whether one or two lifts will be necessary; each lift can accommodate 250 people per day. Skiing normally occurs in the 14-week period from December to April, during which the lift will operate seven days per week. The first lift will operate at 90 percent capacity if economic conditions are bad, the probability of which is believed to be about a 0.3. During normal times the first lift will be utilized at 100 percent capacity, and the excess crowd will provide 50 percent utilization of the second lift. The probability of normal times is 0.5. Finally, if times are really good, the probability of which is 0.2, the utilization of the second lift will increase to 90 percent. The equivalent annual cost of installing a new lift, recognizing the time value of money and the lift’s economic life, is $50,000. The annual cost of installing two lifts is only $90,000 if both are…arrow_forward
- White Valley Ski Resort is planning the ski lift operation for its new ski resort. Management is trying to determine whether one or two lifts will be necessary: each lift can accommodate 250 people per day. Skiing normally occurs in the 14-week period from December to April, during which the lift will operate seven days per week. The first lift will operate at 90 percent capacity if economic conditions are bad, the probability of which is believed to be about a 0.3. During normal times the first lift will be utilized at 100 percent capacity, and the excess crowd will provide 50 percent utilization of the second lift. The probability of normal times is 0. Finally, if times are really good, the probability of which is 0.2, the utilization of the second lift will increase to 90 percent. The equivalent annual cost of installing a new lift, recognizing the time value of money and the lit's economic life, is $50.000. The annual cost of installing two lifts is only $90.000 if both are…arrow_forwardresolver el ejercicioarrow_forwardPlease help me!arrow_forward
- Practical Management ScienceOperations ManagementISBN:9781337406659Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.Publisher:Cengage,Purchasing and Supply Chain ManagementOperations ManagementISBN:9781285869681Author:Robert M. Monczka, Robert B. Handfield, Larry C. Giunipero, James L. PattersonPublisher:Cengage Learning